EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA (19E)

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910091229
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009100912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922009
EP, 92, 2009100812, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1076W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009100818, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1076W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009100900, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1074W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009100906, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1071W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009100912, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1068W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[HURAKAN]

160
WHXX01 KMIA 091232
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC FRI OCT 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091009 1200 091010 0000 091010 1200 091011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 106.8W 17.9N 107.2W 18.2N 108.0W 19.4N 108.9W
BAMD 17.6N 106.8W 17.7N 107.3W 17.7N 108.2W 18.3N 109.3W
BAMM 17.6N 106.8W 17.8N 107.2W 18.0N 108.0W 18.6N 109.0W
LBAR 17.6N 106.8W 18.1N 106.5W 18.9N 106.4W 20.1N 106.5W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 24KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091011 1200 091012 1200 091013 1200 091014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 109.5W 25.6N 108.4W 30.1N 106.8W 34.0N 103.6W
BAMD 19.5N 110.0W 23.5N 108.7W 29.4N 104.7W 35.0N 92.1W
BAMM 19.8N 109.7W 23.8N 108.4W 28.4N 105.6W 32.7N 99.3W
LBAR 21.6N 106.4W 26.6N 103.7W 34.6N 94.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 33KTS 40KTS 36KTS 27KTS
DSHP 33KTS 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 106.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 107.4W DIRM12 = 38DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ABPZ20 KNHC 091145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Exposed LLC

[HURAKAN]

92E's future

[brunota2003]

"92E's future"...is short and filled with life taking mountains.

[HURAKAN]

220
ABPZ20 KNHC 091735
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

09/1745 UTC 17.2N 106.9W TOO WEAK 92E -- East Pacific

Still has a road to travel

[HURAKAN]

984
WHXX01 KMIA 091905
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC FRI OCT 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20091009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091009 1800 091010 0600 091010 1800 091011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 106.7W 18.0N 107.3W 18.6N 108.3W 19.8N 109.2W
BAMD 17.7N 106.7W 17.6N 107.2W 17.7N 108.3W 18.5N 109.4W
BAMM 17.7N 106.7W 17.8N 107.3W 18.2N 108.2W 18.9N 109.2W
LBAR 17.7N 106.7W 18.0N 106.3W 18.7N 106.3W 19.8N 106.6W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091011 1800 091012 1800 091013 1800 091014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 109.7W 25.8N 108.9W 29.9N 107.3W 33.2N 105.6W
BAMD 19.8N 110.0W 23.5N 109.2W 29.1N 104.7W 30.6N 97.4W
BAMM 20.3N 109.7W 23.9N 108.8W 28.2N 106.1W 30.7N 103.2W
LBAR 21.3N 106.6W 25.8N 104.1W 32.2N 96.9W 31.8N 85.1W
SHIP 32KTS 38KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 32KTS 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 106.7W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest 25kts-1008mb

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO ARE DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PHNC 101630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 106.5W TO 19.9N 111.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 107.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.0W, APPROXI-
MATELY 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, ALBEIT STILL FRAGMENTED, ARE BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111630Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.If this trend of organization continues,it should be a TD or TS Patricia later today.