ATL : INVEST 92L

[HURAKAN]

614
ABNT20 KNHC 091149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ARE LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman57]

Not much there but a small cluster of storms. Obs show winds 5-15 kts and no turning.

[FireBird]

Hi folks, just to let you know my obs from on the ground here in Trinidad. The night was terribly still, and starting early this morning, we've had strong winds (about 25+ miles), and stronger gusts. I live in the NNW in a valley so I'm sure topography would account for some of the strong gusts. I can confirm to you some very fast moving clouds heading NW with variable winds, including periods of sustained wind moving West to East. Rains in my immediate area were moderate, but as soon as I headed out of the valley, there were heavy showers and visibility to the east is very poor. It looks like 5am outside. I'll keep you guys posted with obs later on.
Gotta say from my experience, if something has the guts to make it through my neck of the woods, it has a good chance of developing, once it stays away from mainland S. America.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks, Firebird. Keep us updated!

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2009100912, , BEST, 0, 108N, 626W, 25, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

591
WHXX01 KWBC 091235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC FRI OCT 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091009 1200 091010 0000 091010 1200 091011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 62.6W 11.4N 65.3W 12.0N 67.9W 12.5N 70.4W
BAMD 10.8N 62.6W 11.2N 65.3W 11.4N 68.0W 11.4N 70.8W
BAMM 10.8N 62.6W 11.3N 65.5W 11.8N 68.4W 12.2N 71.2W
LBAR 10.8N 62.6W 11.3N 65.5W 11.5N 68.6W 11.6N 71.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091011 1200 091012 1200 091013 1200 091014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 73.4W 13.6N 79.4W 13.7N 86.0W 13.3N 92.1W
BAMD 11.3N 73.7W 11.1N 79.6W 10.9N 85.8W 10.8N 92.1W
BAMM 12.3N 74.3W 12.4N 80.9W 12.2N 87.9W 11.8N 94.8W
LBAR 11.5N 74.8W 10.9N 81.1W 9.8N 87.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 58KTS 73KTS 87KTS
DSHP 40KTS 56KTS 44KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

Not much there at all. A thunderstorm or two, 5-15 kt winds. That's it. Not really invest-worthy:

[tropicana]

Piarco International Airport, Trinidad (located in Central Trinidad) has reported 26mm (just over 1 inch) in the preceding 12 hours, to 8am this morning.
Temperatures are being held down due to the overcast skies and rain, temperatures this morning at 75F 24C at 9am, but no real wind to speak of according to the airport observation, also no real barometric pressure drop.

-justin-

[deltadog03]

bout that time to pull out bones for this one wxman. I think with the MJO coming across soon we might get 1 more named one. IF not then adios season.

[Macrocane]

Take a look at this, I think it is invest 92-L what the ECMWF is predicting, it tries to develop something in the Caribbean in 72 hours:

72 h Western Caribbean

96 h is crossing Central America

144 h starts to redevelop on the EPAC

216 h a significant hurricane

[HURAKAN]

Not much to see.

[cycloneye]

Outflow boundaries.

[Derek Ortt]

NEXT INVEST PLEASE

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Yeah, not much there. Doesn't qualify as an invest, I'd say. One thunderstorm, 5-15 kt wind. That's it:

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1346

A tropical wave (92L) is over Trinidad and the northern coast of South America. This wave has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms due to interaction with land. The 8pm EDT run of the HWRF model indicated that 92L might be able to organize into a tropical depression, but none of the other models are calling for development. The disturbance is too close to the coast of South America for any development to occur for at least a day or two. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

[HURAKAN]

219
ABNT20 KNHC 091735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Sanibel]

Somebody on this site must be running the new 2009 Norton's super storm shield.


This South America track is just another weird thing in a weird season.


I'm not sure if it would have formed even if Trinidad and the mainland didn't trip it up.


Could become a watchable system if it gets back over water.

[HURAKAN]

09/1745 UTC 10.5N 63.6W OVERLAND 92L -- Atlantic

[gatorcane]

NEXT INVEST PLEASE

another one gone. This season so far has been one of the most hostile for tropical storm formation that I have seen in quite sometime.