WPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (21W)

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Continues exposed

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Latest

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Latest

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WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.9N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 141.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION, THOUGH UNORGANIZED, HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
CONSEQUENTLY, THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INCREASED TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. TS NEPARTAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
INTENSIFY BRIEFLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 344
WTPQ50 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0919 NEPARTAK (0919)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 21.3N 142.6E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 21.7N 142.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120600UTC 22.3N 141.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130600UTC 23.7N 141.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 140600UTC 26.4N 143.0E 425NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
120HF 150600UTC 28.4N 146.3E 500NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.4N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.7N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 141.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 494
WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0919 NEPARTAK (0919)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 22.2N 143.0E POOR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 23.8N 144.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 121800UTC 27.3N 147.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 131800UTC 32.4N 153.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 141800UTC 37.4N 162.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
120HF 151800UTC 41.5N 172.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.3N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 142.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[erg123]

Indeed is the Scoundrel

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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... CST21W.GIF

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超级水台一个。。。。。。。又要拉平均的后腿了。。。

[erg123]

如果向东又将是个超台，可惜它偏偏要朝北走，用WOWER的话说，你这是自寻死路！

[erg123]

[erg123]

Hong Kong wind confuses momoko: At present what guides banana plant Ma is the Chinese interior high pressure, extends the relations with the Nibote that side pacific high west not to be big, believed that Nibote is limited to the banana plant Ma's way indirect influence

[erg123]

[cycloneye]

PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.6N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.2N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.1N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 142.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL SYSTEM WITH DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A 102358Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS
UNFLAGGED 35-KNOT WINDS AND A RECENT 110813Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BEGINNINGS OF A MICROWAVE EYE. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND THIS ESTIMATE
LEANS TOWARDS THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATE (T3.5) PROVIDED BY KNES
RATHER THAN THOSE OF PGTW (T3.0) AND RJTD (T2.5). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW POSITION FIX AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE 110813Z MICROWAVE IMAGE. NEPARTAK IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND ENABLE NEPARTAK TO INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED
BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATING
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
REPRESENTS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH WERE SLOWER IN
FORECAST TRACK SPEED AND WEAKER IN INITIAL INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 807
WTPQ20 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0919 NEPARTAK (0919)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 22.8N 143.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 25.0N 145.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 130600UTC 30.2N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 140600UTC 37.0N 160.4E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's trying to develop an eye

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.0N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.4N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.4N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 37.6N 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 143.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI-JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSIST
OVER THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEPARTAK IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BUT IS NOT YET SHOWING
SIGNS OF BEING NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW. RJTD AND KNES AVERAGING T3.5. TS 21W WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 24, AND
BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 72. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AFTER THE STRONG VWS FINALLY TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 715
WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0919 NEPARTAK (0919)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 23.5N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 27.1N 147.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 140000UTC 33.4N 155.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 150000UTC 39.8N 170.5E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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