#392 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 3:57 pm
WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.8N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.8N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES (T3.O), RJTD (T2.0) AND PGTW (T2.O).
TS PARMA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN HAINAN BY TAU 12, EXIT THE
ISLAND BY TAU 24, THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM, SOUTH OF HANOI,
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN PACK AND GFDN ON
THE FAR LEFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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