Global model runs discussion

[Macrocane]

I've never been a season over predictor, but it looks like winter in the tropics.

We only need cold surges in Central America to feel like winter

[gatorcane]

The GFS is developing a wave currently in the MDR east of the Leewards down the road in the WCAR and moves it into the EGOM:

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC spins up a low-lattitude Cape Verde wave and moves it WNW through the Leewards, near Puerto Rico, and towards the Greater Antilles/SE Bahamas. Will be interested if other models pick-up on it or not and whether future runs of CMC will continue to show development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Lifesgud2]

Season is OVER!!! Stop already with this -removed-...Come on guys..I am not a troll, as I spend plenty of time on here and read opinions and forecats which most of the time are very good and educating. Tis the season

[boca]

With the high shear and the winter type pattern where in nothing can WNW unless its at the very lowest levels meaning we'd be tracking a swirl.Anything more than a swirl would get caught in the westerlies.This seaon was over in the beginning of Sept.Hopefully 2010 will be better for us to track storms.

[Emmett_Brown]

Season is OVER!!! Stop already with this -removed-...Come on guys..I am not a troll, as I spend plenty of time on here and read opinions and forecats which most of the time are very good and educating. Tis the season

Nope... you are very wrong about the season being over. A more favorable MJO pulse may be on the way in the next 10 days, and water temps are still quite warm. Shear has ruled the day, but it is still possible for a storm to form if the conditions are right. Besides, that is what this board is for, to discuss the tropics.

Back to the topic at hand, the cmc hasn't been spinning up as many phantom storms this year, so it will be interesting to see if any other models start showing development.

[boca]

Season is OVER!!! Stop already with this -removed-...Come on guys..I am not a troll, as I spend plenty of time on here and read opinions and forecats which most of the time are very good and educating. Tis the season

Nope... you are very wrong about the season being over. A more favorable MJO pulse may be on the way in the next 10 days, and water temps are still quite warm. Shear has ruled the day, but it is still possible for a storm to form if the conditions are right. Besides, that is what this board is for, to discuss the tropics.

Back to the topic at hand, the cmc hasn't been spinning up as many phantom storms this year, so it will be interesting to see if any other models start showing development.

The last time the season was this quiet was in 1984 I believe.I'm watching those areas east of the Leewards to see if it does move west.I just read the miami discussion after I posted the last post and its going to be a July pattern next week.Maybe I was too quick on dissmissing this season just yet.

[BigA]

While there isn´t consensus, the CMC isn´t the only one showing development. The EURO takes a TD or TS into the northern Lesser Antilles, though the system does not survive. The MM5 FSU-GFS also developes the low, though it goes fishing, as does the WRF model.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[Emmett_Brown]

I think that the wave the CMC is developing is the one that is just E of 40W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[Blown Away]

CMC still develops a TS from the wave near 40W and moves it through Hispaniola towards the SE Bahamas. Looks like a nice little system until it goes through Hispaniola. Nice ridge building as this system nears the SE Bahamas. Goes through PR on its way, something for Luis to watch.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

We know the drill regarding long range forecasts so we have to take this GFS scenario with a grain of salt until we see other models joining GFS as the timeframe shrinks.

Western Caribbean development progged by GFS.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

[jinftl]

With the extreme tropical cyclone heat potential (tchp)....and the climatological propensity for October beasts to form in that region....this is the one area that we want to keep a system out of and keep shear all over.

We know the drill regarding long range forecasts so we have to take this GFS scenario with a grain of salt until we see other models joining GFS as the timeframe shrinks.

Western Caribbean development progged by GFS.

[Derek Ortt]

its an el nino year. No need to worry

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show a system at long range but in different areas.In this 12z run is in the GOM.What I haved said before about long range stands.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

its an el nino year. No need to worry

Dont forget the upward phase of MJO that is slated to get into the Caribbean and GOM by late October.

[jconsor]

Derek -

Yes, the upper-level pattern has been behaving very much like a typical El Nino over the eastern Pacific and Caribbean. However, the MJO has exited phase 5 and is now heading for the border between Phases 1 and 8. Based on Philip Klotzbach's recent study of the MJO-Atlantic Hurricane relationship, an average of phases 1 and 8 produces 53% more ACE in the Atlantic than phase 5. The activity in phases 1 and 8 is particularly enhanced in the western Caribbean, which is the main favored region for development this time of year according to climatology.

Also, I did a study of Atlantic tropical activity in Oct-Nov during weak El Ninos. Between 1944 and 2009, Weak El Ninos produced on average 2.0 tropical storms, 1.4 hurricanes and 0.0 major hurricanes. Neutral and La Nina years produced an average of 2.7 tropical storms, 1.5 hurricanes and 0.5 major hurricanes.

Also, 7 of the 9 weak El Nino years since 1944 had at least one hurricane during Oct-Nov. (The years are 2002, 1994, 1991, 1986, 1977, 1976, 1963, 1957, 1951). Certainly, late season major hurricanes are virtually nonexistent in El Nino years. I can only find 2 examples of Oct-Nov major hurricanes in El Nino years going back to the mid-1800s: 1867 and 1941. The 1867 hurricane hit St. Thomas as a Category 3 and was one of the worst in Puerto Rico's history.

Although hurricanes originating in the western Caribbean and Gulf are less common during El Nino events, there have been a few (note that I am counting ones that became tropical storms in the Gulf or Caribbean but did not become hurricanes until reaching the SW Atlantic):

1994 - Gordon
1987 - Floyd
1969- Laurie, Martha
1951 - How, Item
1913- #6
1904- #3

[jinftl]

Very interesting...thanks for the analysis. We just may see Ida yet this season somewhere (western caribbean....or maybe in the central or northeast atlantic).....of course folks will immediately post that 'this is it folks, the season is done'.....but in that case, they may be right.

Gordon was definitely a memorable system for the state of Florida (not to mention the estimated 1,147 who were killed from direct impacts of Gordon in Haiti). Gordon didn't form until November 8th!

Derek -

Yes, the upper-level pattern has been behaving very much like a typical El Nino over the eastern Pacific and Caribbean. However, the MJO has exited phase 5 and is now heading for the border between Phases 1 and 8. Based on Philip Klotzbach's recent study of the MJO-Atlantic Hurricane relationship, an average of phases 1 and 8 produces 53% more ACE in the Atlantic than phase 5. The activity in phase 8 is particularly enhanced in the western Caribbean, which is the main favored region for development this time of year according to climatology.

Also, I did a study of Atlantic tropical activity in Oct-Nov during weak El Ninos. Between 1944 and 2009, Weak El Ninos produced on average 2.0 tropical storms, 1.4 hurricanes and 0.0 major hurricanes. Neutral and La Nina years produced an average of 2.7 tropical storms, 1.5 hurricanes and 0.5 major hurricanes.

Also, 8 of the 9 Weak El Nino years since 1944 had at least one hurricane. (The years are 2002, 1994, 1991, 1986, 1977, 1976, 1963, 1957, 1951). Although hurricanes originating in the western Caribbean and Gulf are less common during El Nino events, there have been a few (note that I am counting storms that became tropical storms in the Gulf or Caribbean but did not become hurricanes until reaching the SW Atlantic):

1994 - Gordon
1987 - Floyd
1969- Laurie, Martha
1951 - How, Item
1913- #6
1904- #3

[hurricanetrack]

Let me see if I understand this correctly.

If we had the GFS showing Andrew in 1992 at several days out, how many people would have said "It is an El Nino year, don't worry"? Seriously?

Besides, who's worried? It's just some maps showing tropical cyclones way out in time. Are there some people trying to suggest that we should not care anymore since it is an El Nino year? We'll see what happens, my bet is that we get another hurricane coming out of the Caribbean before the end of the month and that it will ruin the party for someone- not sure who, but some location could be in trouble if the pattern we are seeing possibly set up verifies.

I just don't get this thought process that the season should remember where it has been when considering where it is going. No such thing.

[jinftl]

Model runs during el nino seasons aren't, as far as i know, any less (or any more) reliable given the # hours out in time they go.

My take on this season continues to be that while they are lacking the staying power and text-book photo finesse of other seasons, we are pretty much on track for an average # of named storms this season (i.e., 10). Not to be confused with ACE, though. What that means is I fully expect we will see another named storm...or 2.

Let me see if I understand this correctly.

If we had the GFS showing Andrew in 1992 at several days out, how many people would have said "It is an El Nino year, don't worry"? Seriously?

Besides, who's worried? It's just some maps showing tropical cyclones way out in time. Are there some people trying to suggest that we should not care anymore since it is an El Nino year? We'll see what happens, my bet is that we get another hurricane coming out of the Caribbean before the end of the month and that it will ruin the party for someone- not sure who, but some location could be in trouble if the pattern we are seeing possibly set up verifies.

I just don't get this thought process that the season should remember where it has been when considering where it is going. No such thing.

[Macrocane]

I have mentioned that in other threads, there have been several El Niño years that have had tropical storms developing during october and november, the research that jconsor did proves that. Also if you look at the GFS scenario the system forms when a cold front and its related ridge reach Central America and Caribbean Sea, usually it means a rather favorable environment for late season tropical development although I don't expect a hurricane to form but a tropical storm may be possible. Let's see if there is model consistency.