Global model runs discussion

[Sanibel]

Anybody who has followed the tropics, even at a dork level, knows they can change at any time.

[jinftl]

Especially if you consider that most storms that impact us are often the result of a series of 'unlikely events' coming together just right to produce a result that marries upper level support, internal dynamics, steering mechanisms, and the ever-present signficance of 'timing and location' to wreak havoc.

We have had 2 majors this season....even the 2009 atlantic has been able to cough those up. If those had hit land at full strength, would we still think this is a 'slow season'?

Anybody who has followed the tropics, even at a dork level, knows they can change at any time.

[cycloneye]

Another run from GFS continues to show this.More models needed.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hurricanetrack]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out. The model is trying to create a TC somewhere in the region at a distance way out in time. What I take away from that is that it is seeing the MJO pulse, loweing the pressures and allowing a cyclone to develop. However, looking at the 200mb level at those time frames, upper level winds are quite strong and unless this is moving with those winds like Wilma did, I find this hard to accept (a stong TC in the region). But we'll see, it is not over til it's over no matter what anyone wants, wishes or desires- on both sides of the fence.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Here is the 200mb chart that Mark is talking about.

[Dean4Storms]

Well at least this is around 2 weeks out and we all know this is about as likely as a tornado at the north pole!

[Stormcenter]

This is as likely to pan out as is one of these teams(Bucs,Browns,Raiders,Rams,Chief and Lions)
making the playoffs this season.

[blp]

00z GFS still has our system but starts it out again in the WCAR like the 06z run. Also moves the timeframe of origin back. The shifting timeframes and locations show how uncertain this forecast is and as others have said needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It is interesting that the last few runs seem to indicate that the energy to form this will orginate in the Epac and crossover. Let's see what happens.

[tolakram]

Here's my issues with the models this year.

None have correctly forecast the shear. Period.

* -> It's true the season is not over and it's true all it takes is the right disturbance being in the right place at the right time, and then having time to strengthen.



With shear the way it is right now, and the winter pattern rapidly settling in, I have serious doubts.

See *

[Derek Ortt]

there is a better chance of winning the powerball and mega millions jackpots in the same week twice than there is of this thing actually verifying

A Katrina in the northern Gulf near November, HAHAHAHA

[cycloneye]

I am only posting the runs of GFS each day for the members,but I dont believe them as its not useful over 300 hours.Today,12z GFS continues to show the GOM system.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

GFS has backed off significantly, now showing more of a broad trough and not a TC

[wxman57]

GFS has backed off significantly, now showing more of a broad trough and not a TC

It's actually showing a frontal low in a high-shear environment at 300hrs. SW winds 40-60 kts at 200mb. Strong cold advection into the Gulf. Nothing tropical.

[MGC]

The GOM is still quite warm, no fronts have made it down yet, though one is forecast this weekend. Never know, might have another Kate. Kate was a Cat-2 that hit the Florida Gulf Coast near Mexico Beach on Nov 22, 1985......MGC

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS...moves north out of NW Caribbean, Nothing else to talk about, but climatology speaking, it could happen.

[cycloneye]

The timeframe shrinks to ten days in this 12z GFS run when something starts going in the SW Caribbean.More models needed to then believe.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[wxman57]

The 06Z and 18Z GFS runs are worse than the 00Z and 12Z runs. And when you're looking at 384 hours, all runs are very bad. A massive low in the middle of the Gulf with strong cold air advection offshore and high shear aloft isn't a formula for TC development.

00Z - Nothing

[lonelymike]

It's over! Time to begin speculation on the 2010 season.