Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111603 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1203 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

.UPDATE...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
SCENARIO WILL NO CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. THE BEST MOISTURE STILL
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AS OF 1145 AM AST.
THEREFORE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MAYBE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO SHOW THE LATEST WEATHER TREND
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO BE EAST NORTH EAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTICED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS
FINE ASH PARTICLES TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM EARLY
ASH EMISSIONS FROM THE SOUFRIERE HILL VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT. MOST
OF THE ASH PARTICLES TO REMAIN OUT FROM THE LOCAL AREA AS EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW
OUT OF A HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TUESDAY.


.AVIATION...BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 16Z TO 19Z AS MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THESE AREAS. ALSO...TIST AND TISX MAY EXPERIENCE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE MOST
LIKELY AIRPORTS TO BE AFFECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TJPS AND
TJMZ FROM 17Z TO 22Z...WITH TEMPORARILY MVFR CONDITIONS AS
MODERATE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SECTION OF THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

PRC001-015-023-043-055-057-059-067-075-079-093-097-111-113-121-123-
125-133-153-112045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0323.091011T1758Z-091011T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-COAMO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-
SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-ARROYO PR-GUAYAMA PR-GUANICA PR-
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-LAJAS PR-
158 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...COAMO...ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN
GERMAN...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...GUANICA...JUANA
DIAZ...PONCE...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL...
PENUELAS AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 150 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PUERTO RICO FROM ARROYO WESTWARD TO SANTA ISABEL. ALSO...ANOTHER
AREAS AFFECTED BY SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE RISKS OF
MUDSLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAINS ARE MODERATE TO HIGH...SINCE SOILS
OVER TODAYS AFFECTED AREAS ARE NEAR OR SATURATED FOR PREVIOUS RAINS
WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN EASTERLY JET IS MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 23 NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE REMNANT OF AN OLD COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTH OF 20 NORTH AND TOWARD PUERTO RICO. IT WILL STALL ON OR NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS FORMED NEAR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. CONVECTION ALSO
MOVED THROUGH CULEBRA. A STREAMER WITH A THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
IN THE VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
CROIX. BANDS OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WATERS AND WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING BEFORE 13/00Z ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI. THE NAM
SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
MOVING ON SHORE WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH ON MONDAY
MORNING. SO FAR THIS SCENARIO IS NOT EVIDENT BUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AND HAVE LEFT ELEVATED POPS MONDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. SHOWERS DECREASE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE NEXT
CLEAR TRIGGER OF ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT
NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALSO AT 700 MB. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND...BANDS OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT IS GENERATING BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
YIELD BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
13/02Z MOST AREAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 13/15Z ON THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO AS MUCH AS 4 FEET LATE MONDAY WITH
TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SEAS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE DO NOT RETURN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
914 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

.UPDATE...00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY MOIST 1000MB-750MB
LAYER. THE SOUNDING REVEALED PW VALUES OF 2.23...WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT WITH CIMSS. THE REMNANT OF AN
OLD COLD FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT. A FFW WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS EVENING BY THE
GUANAJIBO RIVER IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AFTERNOON HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION...THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO WX
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 120246
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2009

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 80. WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND BROUGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO
ST. CROIX. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN QUARTER OF AN INCH
WERE RECORDED AT ST. CROIX. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON COLUMBUS DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.


MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET...IN NORTHERLY
SWELLS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO THE NORTHERLY SWELLS...LOCAL BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
716 AM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC007-021-025-029-031-033-061-063-087-127-137-139-121300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0325.091012T1116Z-091012T1300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
716 AM AST MON OCT 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...
GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 AM AST

* AT 710 AM AST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO HOURS. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS HAVE BEEN FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...BEFORE THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER MOVES OR DISSIPATES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

I dont know how is the weather in the islands today but here in PR it feels like real October as a fresh breeze is blowing here as a weak cold front moves thru.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC009-035-043-057-123-133-121700-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0326.091012T1455Z-091012T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-GUAYAMA PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
1055 AM AST MON OCT 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...GUAYAMA...SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 100 PM AST

* AT 1054 AM AST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES FOR THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...BEFORE THIS
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES OR DISSIPATES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[msbee]

I dont know how is the weather in the islands today but here in PR it feels like real October as a fresh breeze is blowing here as a weak cold front moves thru.

a cold front?
Oh, send it my way please.
It is steaming hot here.

[Gustywind]

I dont know how is the weather in the islands today but here in PR it feels like real October as a fresh breeze is blowing here as a weak cold front moves thru.

a cold front?
Oh, send it my way please.
It is steaming hot here.

Be Welcomed too in Guadeloupe too, Gustywind
You're right my msbee, he hope that in most of the carib islands, so let's keep our fingers crossed...

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
113 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC015-095-109-151-122015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0329.091012T1713Z-091012T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
113 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES OVER THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

I dont know how is the weather in the islands today but here in PR it feels like real October as a fresh breeze is blowing here as a weak cold front moves thru.

a cold front?
Oh, send it my way please.
It is steaming hot here.

Well,not cold like that but is a change from the warm days of September and early October.Also,its raining a lot here today as the front moves away slowly.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC007-019-021-045-047-051-061-101-105-107-127-135-137-143-122100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0330.091012T1755Z-091012T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
155 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...
OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...
DORADO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 154 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC007-019-021-045-047-051-061-101-105-107-127-135-137-143-122100-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FA.Y.0330.000000T0000Z-091012T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
244 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...
OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA
ALTA...DORADO AND TOA BAJA

THE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH
AFFECTED THE ADVISORY AREA HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY. THEREFORE
THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. A FLOOD
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN
JUAN...GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON.

&&

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

PRC007-019-021-045-047-051-061-101-105-107-127-135-137-143-122100-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FA.Y.0330.000000T0000Z-091012T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
307 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...
OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...
DORADO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

AT 232 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&

LAT...LON 1836 6605 1818 6620 1824 6643 1845 6628

$$

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 121904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND DRIFT WEST UNTIL MID WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG OVER FLORIDA...CAUSING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WEAKEN DURING THE WEEK AND REMAIN
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AFTER FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIGS OVER FLORIDA WHILE A HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THE MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOVER NEAR PUERTO
RICO WITH UNDULATIONS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES THURSDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PASS
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN PASSING
THROUGH PUERTO RICO FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FADING AS THEY REACH THE
WEST COAST. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK WAVE THAT THE NAM
FORECAST YESTERDAY IS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO
RICO WITH TWO CONSEQUENCES...LESS RAIN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PROLONGED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND...
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 9 PM AST. ON TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BUT THE OLD BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND AND WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON SHOWER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHOWERS ACTIVE. THURSDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME
DRYING. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST
YESTERDAY WITH MORE LIMITED EFFECTS. NONETHELESS...THIS WILL GIVE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO ANOTHER BOOST. DRIER AIR MOVES
IN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BANDS OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR FEATURES ARE EVIDENT AND HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS ANY MORE FRONTS AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
TNCM...TJPS...TJMZ...THROUGH 13/02Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY A DENSE ASH PLUME LEAVING FROM MONTSERRAT IS TRAVELING
MORE THAN 200 MILES TO THE WEST. ITS NORTHERN BORDER MAY BE AS FAR
NORTH AS 40 MILES SOUTH OF JUANA DIAZ...SINCE ALTHOUGH IT IS
LEAVING THE VOLCANO TO THE SOUTHWEST...IT SPREADS TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER CROSSING 63.5 WEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT...IF THE MOUNTAIN
CONTINUES IN THE PRESENT ACTIVE STATE...SIGNIFICANT ASH COULD SPREAD
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...CREATING HAZARDS TO AVIATION AND HEALTH PROBLEMS
FOR SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL NOT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN EITHER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OR
CARIBBEAN WATERS UNTIL AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES ON FRIDAY.
MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

Caribbean friends.Take a look at the ash plume from the Soufriere volcano in Monserrat that continues to throw the ash for the past 2 weeks.The winds are from the ENE and that is why right now its going into the Caribbean sea and not NW towards PR,U.S.VI,BVI and northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST MON OCT 12 2009

.UPDATE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING HAD EITHER MOVED OFF OR DISSIPATED. NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT WEATHER SCENARIO. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND TEMPO MVFR CONDS WILL TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TISX...TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 13/10Z. EXPECT OCNL BANDS OF L/LVL
CLDS AND PASSING SHRA TO MOVE WSW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS JUST N
OF PR AND BTW THE USVI AND ERN PR. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AT LEAST UNTIL 13/12Z. THEREAFTER...DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
BTWN 12/16Z-12/22Z...LEADING TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJBQ...TJMZ...
TJPS...AND POSSIBLE VCSH AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS DURG THE AFTN.
THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT CONTINUED TO SPREAD VA
PLUME SEVERAL MILES WEST OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE VA OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 AM AST TUE OCT 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
HIGH THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
RE-BUILDING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS SHARP TROUGHINESS DIGS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEAR JUST ABOUT
GONE AT THIS TIME...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS...THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO...THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...IN WHAT HAS BECOME A RATHER DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY...AND COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 13/16Z...WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR VCSH
ACROSS THE VI...TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
AVIATIONAL IMPACTS. AFTER 13/16Z...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PR WILL SPREAD ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ...BRINGING
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13/17Z AND 13/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL HAVE
LINGERING NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...STILL EXPECT LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS FOR TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE STRING OF RECORD WARMTH ENDED MONDAY MORNING WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FELL TO
78 DEGREES DURING A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER. A SUMMARY OF THE 9 DAYS OF
RECORD TEMPERATURES CAN BE SEEN BY FOLLOWING THE OCTOBER WARMTH
LINK ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN HOMEPAGE.