000
AWCA82 TJSJ 130915
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ESTIMATED RAINFALL
TOTALS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND THE
WINDS WERE MAINLY EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PATCHY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...WHERE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET. NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
$$
SR
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Seems that tropics continue to be quiet, let's enjoy it 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131135
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131135
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Dionne
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1616
- Age: 74
- Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:51 am
- Location: SW Mississippi....Alaska transplant via a Southern Belle.
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:Caribbean friends.Take a look at the ash plume from the Soufriere volcano in Monserrat that continues to throw the ash for the past 2 weeks.The winds are from the ENE and that is why right now its going into the Caribbean sea and not NW towards PR,U.S.VI,BVI and northern Leewards.
Thanx cycloneye. We leave for St Croix late tonight. FAA has not issued a volcanic ash SIGMET. I was wondering where the ash was going.
EDIT: San Juan has issued a SIGMET for VA. On the northside the plume is at N1645.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Here is information about the recent activity of the Soufriere volcano.
Scientists in Montserrat have given an explanation of recent activity at the Soufriere Hills Volcano which erupted on Sunday.
The volcano sent ash spewing two miles into the atmosphere.
Paul Cole, Head of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory said the recent activity is the result of a new lava dome growing near the volcano's summit.
"This has started producing small flows of fragments of hot rocks and ash down the sides of the volcano on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, we had a switch in the direction of the activity ... it's now moving to the north which is important because people live at the end of the valley which drains where these pyroclastic flows are traveling so, we need to keep a very close watch on what's going on even though it's not escalating.
"We're getting regular high levels of volcanic activity about 2 kilometres from the dome. People live about 6 kilometres away from the dome so, the pyroclastic flow would have to go a lot further for it to begin to be a problem and for us to start thinking about evacuating people," said Mr. Cole.
http://www.radiojamaica.com/content/view/22268/88/
Scientists in Montserrat have given an explanation of recent activity at the Soufriere Hills Volcano which erupted on Sunday.
The volcano sent ash spewing two miles into the atmosphere.
Paul Cole, Head of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory said the recent activity is the result of a new lava dome growing near the volcano's summit.
"This has started producing small flows of fragments of hot rocks and ash down the sides of the volcano on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, we had a switch in the direction of the activity ... it's now moving to the north which is important because people live at the end of the valley which drains where these pyroclastic flows are traveling so, we need to keep a very close watch on what's going on even though it's not escalating.
"We're getting regular high levels of volcanic activity about 2 kilometres from the dome. People live about 6 kilometres away from the dome so, the pyroclastic flow would have to go a lot further for it to begin to be a problem and for us to start thinking about evacuating people," said Mr. Cole.
http://www.radiojamaica.com/content/view/22268/88/
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
This image only is seen at daylight but updates every hour.You can see the ash plume steaming from the volcano.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TJSJ 131851
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
HIGH THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
RE-BUILDING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WIND HAD A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET BUT A FEW COULD
LINGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WILL
BE PUSH ON SHORE BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS...THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND A MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO AT THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT
HAVE EMITTED ASH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
WE SHOULD EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ASH EARLY THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57 W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY TJPS TILL 13/22Z IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14/02Z. OBSCURATIONS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
ARE LIKELY UNTIL 14/04Z. TRACES OF ASH FROM MONTSERRAT MAY
POSSIBLY BE SEEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 14/18Z. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ASH MAY BE SEEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PILOTS SHOULD
CHECK WIND FLOW AND EMISSIONS BEFORE FLYING INTO THE AREA ON THOSE
DAYS. WINDS ALOFT ARE EASTERLY 30 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 24 HOURS.
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
HIGH THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
RE-BUILDING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WIND HAD A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET BUT A FEW COULD
LINGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WILL
BE PUSH ON SHORE BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS...THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND A MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO AT THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT
HAVE EMITTED ASH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
WE SHOULD EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ASH EARLY THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57 W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY TJPS TILL 13/22Z IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14/02Z. OBSCURATIONS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
ARE LIKELY UNTIL 14/04Z. TRACES OF ASH FROM MONTSERRAT MAY
POSSIBLY BE SEEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 14/18Z. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ASH MAY BE SEEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PILOTS SHOULD
CHECK WIND FLOW AND EMISSIONS BEFORE FLYING INTO THE AREA ON THOSE
DAYS. WINDS ALOFT ARE EASTERLY 30 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 24 HOURS.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
PRC111-113-132215-
PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
355 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
PONCE AND PENUELAS
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 319 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THESE AREAS. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN AN INCH TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF RIO PORTUGUES...RIO BUCANA AND
RIO CERRILLOS. RUNOFF FROM THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS INCLUDING THE RIO PORTUGUES DAM AT LEAST UNTIL 615 PM
AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1798 6665 1812 6669 1815 6667 1816 6659
1799 6658
$$
RAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
PRC111-113-132215-
PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
355 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
PONCE AND PENUELAS
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 319 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THESE AREAS. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN AN INCH TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF RIO PORTUGUES...RIO BUCANA AND
RIO CERRILLOS. RUNOFF FROM THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS INCLUDING THE RIO PORTUGUES DAM AT LEAST UNTIL 615 PM
AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1798 6665 1812 6669 1815 6667 1816 6659
1799 6658
$$
RAM
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
806 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
.UPDATE...NEXT 5 DAYS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH ONLY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF TUTT INDUCED REFLECTION NEARING THE
LEEWARDS TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
MID LAYER CAP LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A FEW RIVERS WERE
RUNNING HIGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN PR BASINS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINS OF LATE...WHICH WILL BE AN ISSUE TO MONITOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECT MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED LOCATIONS OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS OFF US EAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND PUSHING RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND STRENGTHENING IT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PLENTIFUL
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE WATERS AND USVI.
ANOTHER ISSUE OF SLIGHT CONCERN WILL BE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WHICH
HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO
IN MONTSERRAT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD THE NORTHEAST FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO VEER A BIT...PUSHING
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE ASH FLOW A BIT MORE TOWARDS TRUE WEST.
EXPECTING VEERING WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
THE 850 LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ASH FLOW IS
TRANSPORTED WEDNESDAY AS ABOVE MENTIONED TUTT REFLECTION MOVES
INTO THE VI AND SOUTHERN PR. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DIFFUSE HAZE
IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE NORTHER
MOST EXTENT OF PLUME JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (ABOUT 50-75 MILES SOUTH OF PR/ST CROIX). SHOULD
SKIES APPEAR A BIT HAZY WEDNESDAY AT TIMES...IT MAY BE DUE TO
VOLCANIC ASH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER EXPECT PASSING CLDS AND SHRA TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BTWN THE USVI AND PR...AND AFFECT THE
COASTAL SHORES OF ERN PR MAINLY FM 14/06Z-14/10Z. THIS MAY LEAD
TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJNR...TJSJ. VCSH CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND AROUND TISX...TIST AND
TUPJ FM 14/02Z-14/10Z. VOLCANIC ASH CONTINUED TO SPREAD WESTWARD FM
THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT TODAY. THESE CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ASH PLUME SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW BTW 15-20 KFT...
PILOTS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST SIGMETS FOR UPDATES BEFORE FLYING
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PRESENTLY THE GENERAL WIND FLOW BLW 15 KFT WAS FROM THE ENE AT
15-20 KTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
806 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2009
.UPDATE...NEXT 5 DAYS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH ONLY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF TUTT INDUCED REFLECTION NEARING THE
LEEWARDS TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
MID LAYER CAP LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A FEW RIVERS WERE
RUNNING HIGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN PR BASINS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINS OF LATE...WHICH WILL BE AN ISSUE TO MONITOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECT MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED LOCATIONS OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS OFF US EAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND PUSHING RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND STRENGTHENING IT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PLENTIFUL
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE WATERS AND USVI.
ANOTHER ISSUE OF SLIGHT CONCERN WILL BE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WHICH
HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO
IN MONTSERRAT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD THE NORTHEAST FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO VEER A BIT...PUSHING
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE ASH FLOW A BIT MORE TOWARDS TRUE WEST.
EXPECTING VEERING WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
THE 850 LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ASH FLOW IS
TRANSPORTED WEDNESDAY AS ABOVE MENTIONED TUTT REFLECTION MOVES
INTO THE VI AND SOUTHERN PR. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DIFFUSE HAZE
IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE NORTHER
MOST EXTENT OF PLUME JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (ABOUT 50-75 MILES SOUTH OF PR/ST CROIX). SHOULD
SKIES APPEAR A BIT HAZY WEDNESDAY AT TIMES...IT MAY BE DUE TO
VOLCANIC ASH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER EXPECT PASSING CLDS AND SHRA TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BTWN THE USVI AND PR...AND AFFECT THE
COASTAL SHORES OF ERN PR MAINLY FM 14/06Z-14/10Z. THIS MAY LEAD
TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJNR...TJSJ. VCSH CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND AROUND TISX...TIST AND
TUPJ FM 14/02Z-14/10Z. VOLCANIC ASH CONTINUED TO SPREAD WESTWARD FM
THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT TODAY. THESE CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ASH PLUME SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW BTW 15-20 KFT...
PILOTS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST SIGMETS FOR UPDATES BEFORE FLYING
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PRESENTLY THE GENERAL WIND FLOW BLW 15 KFT WAS FROM THE ENE AT
15-20 KTS.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO FIVE DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO COME ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL INDUCED SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND DRY THINGS OUT.
NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO FIVE DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO COME ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL INDUCED SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND DRY THINGS OUT.
NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 140845
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ST. CROIX AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS WHILE THE REST OF THE ISLANDS REMAINED CLOUD FREE.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 80.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
OVER MARINE WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...WHERE SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 FEET. NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 140845
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ST. CROIX AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS WHILE THE REST OF THE ISLANDS REMAINED CLOUD FREE.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 80.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
OVER MARINE WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...WHERE SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 FEET. NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC001-059-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-142045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0335.091014T1753Z-091014T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
GUAYANILLA PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-LAJAS PR-
153 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
GUAYANILLA...PONCE...PENUELAS AND LAJAS
* UNTIL 445 PM AST
* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 445 PM AST.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1804 6703 1816 6697 1817 6657 1807 6660
$$
AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
145 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC007-025-029-031-061-063-127-139-141945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0334.091014T1745Z-091014T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-
145 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 345 PM AST
* AT 140 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 345 PM.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC001-059-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-142045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0335.091014T1753Z-091014T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
GUAYANILLA PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-LAJAS PR-
153 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
GUAYANILLA...PONCE...PENUELAS AND LAJAS
* UNTIL 445 PM AST
* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 445 PM AST.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1804 6703 1816 6697 1817 6657 1807 6660
$$
AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
145 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC007-025-029-031-061-063-127-139-141945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0334.091014T1745Z-091014T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-
145 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 345 PM AST
* AT 140 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 345 PM.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141522 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1122 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
.UPDATE...INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND FORECASTS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJBQ...
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE RATHER LARGE PLUME/AREA OF
VOLCANIC ASH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS COULD GET VERY NEAR OR EVEN OVER TISX THIS
AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
FXCA62 TJSJ 141522 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1122 AM AST WED OCT 14 2009
.UPDATE...INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND FORECASTS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJBQ...
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE RATHER LARGE PLUME/AREA OF
VOLCANIC ASH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS COULD GET VERY NEAR OR EVEN OVER TISX THIS
AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN REBUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO...THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
AND CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY EAST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEREFORE EXPECTED MOST OF
THE CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGH AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
A TUTT AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
TIGHTENING UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AREA.
THIS WILL GENERATE A WIND SURGE THAT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND IN THE TJPS VICINITY THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z...IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE RATHER LARGE PLUME/AREA OF VOLCANIC ASH JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. STILL
FEEL THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET VERY NEAR OR EVEN OVER TISX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...THE NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND COMPLETELY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC081-141-142230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0336.091014T1942Z-091014T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-
342 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO AND LARES
* UNTIL 630 PM AST
* AT 336 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AND RUNOFF WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL 630 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
PRC081-141-142230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0336.091014T1942Z-091014T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-
342 PM AST WED OCT 14 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO AND LARES
* UNTIL 630 PM AST
* AT 336 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AND RUNOFF WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL 630 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145289
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150948 CCA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU OCT 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THEN...IT SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHILE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL INDUCED AN EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A MORE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW RETURNS.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST 10 THOUSAND FEET OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH A KI VALUE OF
35 AND LI OF NEGATIVE 5.5...WHICH ARE GOOD INDEXES VALUES FOR
MODERATE CONVECTION AND LARGE INSTABILITY...RESPECTABLY.
THE REASON WHY THIS IS OCCURRING ARE SEVERAL FACTORS...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TROPICAL WAVE
PASSING SOUTH AND A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONCENTRATE OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.
SOME OF THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES...LOW AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN LOCALES.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE. WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE AIRPORT LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THIS PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES THROUGH FRIDAY.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150948 CCA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU OCT 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THEN...IT SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHILE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL INDUCED AN EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A MORE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW RETURNS.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST 10 THOUSAND FEET OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH A KI VALUE OF
35 AND LI OF NEGATIVE 5.5...WHICH ARE GOOD INDEXES VALUES FOR
MODERATE CONVECTION AND LARGE INSTABILITY...RESPECTABLY.
THE REASON WHY THIS IS OCCURRING ARE SEVERAL FACTORS...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TROPICAL WAVE
PASSING SOUTH AND A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONCENTRATE OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.
SOME OF THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES...LOW AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN LOCALES.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE. WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE AIRPORT LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THIS PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES THROUGH FRIDAY.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
good morning everyone
cloudy skies here. Rumbles of thunder all night long. I still hear those rumbles this morning.
We had a few showers but that's all.
Everything is very still.
Have a good day!
Barbara
cloudy skies here. Rumbles of thunder all night long. I still hear those rumbles this morning.
We had a few showers but that's all.
Everything is very still.
Have a good day!
Barbara
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Too many hurricanes to remember
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:good morning everyone
cloudy skies here. Rumbles of thunder all night long. I still hear those rumbles this morning.
We had a few showers but that's all.
Everything is very still.
Have a good day!
Barbara
Hi Barbara
tkanks for posting. Glad to see you here.Nothing to report here. Weather is beautiful here, blue sky...the paradise in the Leewards especially in Guadeloupe.
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