WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

Looks like a new storm is brewing to the East of 93W.

[oaba09]

the WPAC has been quite active these past few days

[wyq614]

an area of convection has persisted near 11.0n 161.8e,
approximately 380 nm west-northwest of kwajalein. Animated
multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad region of inflow
towards an elongated circulation. Convection has been persistent but
disorganized over the area for the past 6 to 12 hours. A 130234z
Aqua-1 pass shows sporadic convection and indications of low level
banding beginning to form. Upper level analysis indicates an upper
level anticyclone is located over the circulation, helping to
provide good radial outflow for the area. Additionally, vertical
wind shear (vws) is low. Sea surface temperatures (sst) and ocean
heat content (ohc) are favorable for development. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. Based on a broad
circulation that is beginning to consolidate, good vws, and
favorable SST/ohc, the potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.

[Dave C]

Island south of area reported wnw wind last hr with a pressure fall of 3 mb over last 3 hrs.

[oaba09]

any possible paths once this develops? is it gonna follow melor's path?

[Macrocane]

any possible paths once this develops? is it gonna follow melor's path?

Models don't predict strong development from this system at least in the short range, in 168 hours the ECMWF predicts a tropical storm that strenghtens into a strong typhoon that makes landfall in Phillipines (I hope it doesn't verify), I think if it will follow Melor's path, but it's something to keep an eye one.

Euro 72 h

Euro 168 h

Euro 240 h

[drdavisjr]

Ok, this model doesn't look so good for us in Central Luzon. How accurate have they been in the past?

[Macrocane]

Ok, this model doesn't look so good for us in Central Luzon. How accurate have they been in the past?

The Euro has been the most reliable model this season, but works better on the short-medium range (1-7 days), the track could still change as well the intensity, we have to watch for consistency on the next runs.

[drdavisjr]

Are there any other available models to compare with?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130153ZOCT2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2009//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 130000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.0N 108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 130000Z, TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WAS LOCATED NEAR
28.7N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 161.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF INFLOW
TOWARDS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
DISORGANIZED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A 130234Z
AQUA-1 PASS SHOWS SPORADIC CONVECTION AND INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE CIRCULATION, HELPING TO
PROVIDE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A BROAD
CIRCULATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, GOOD VWS, AND
FAVORABLE SST/OHC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Dave C]

NWS from Guam has issued special statement.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/
click on special weather statement

[oaba09]

any possible paths once this develops? is it gonna follow melor's path?

Models don't predict strong development from this system at least in the short range, in 168 hours the ECMWF predicts a tropical storm that strenghtens into a strong typhoon that makes landfall in Phillipines (I hope it doesn't verify), I think if it will follow Melor's path, but it's something to keep an eye one.

Euro 72 h

Euro 168 h

Euro 240 h

I hope the ECMWF prediction doesn't happen.....

[cycloneye]

Looks well organized.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 132330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 154.6E TO 12.8N 145.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 16 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 154.0E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
161.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
EAST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 132118Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF THE
FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM ALSO IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142330Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

This looks like a new storm......

[HURAKAN]

Latest QS

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful signature

[dowdavek]

We are starting to watch this very closely on Guam, possible tropical storm by the time it reaches us.... any ideas?


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
841 AM CHST WED OCT 14 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-150000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
841 AM CHST WED OCT 14 2009

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADED TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR 10N153E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING
AND MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20
TO 25 MPH.

WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS.
SINCE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER ARE THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY IN MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK
DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS
PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY.

THE FACT THAT RECENT THREATS TO THE MARIANAS...TYPHOONS CHOI-WAN AND
MELOR...PASSED JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN WITHOUT CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO
THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS CAN OFTEN LEAD TO A SENSE OF COMPLACENCY WHEN
LATER DANGERS ARISE. DO NOT FALL INTO THAT TRAP. NOW IS A GOOD TIME
TO REVIEW PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES...RESTOCK YOUR TYPHOON EMERGENCY
KITS...AND BE READY FOR DAMAGING WINDS WELL BEFORE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH OR WARNING IS DECLARED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MUNDELL

[JTE50]

I noticed the winds picked up here today in Guam. Nice breeze out of the north east. White caps on the water overlooking Two Lovers Point on the west side of the island. Maybe get some rain by sunset here.