San Francisco Bay Area/West Coast Weather/Storms

[brunota2003]

This storm system will be the remnants of Typhoon Melor in the west Pacific, sadly I leave Monday, so I will not know what happens with this system as it pushes through until I get internet back and read on here (if anyone posts). Remember, if sat images are posted...save them first and post the saved image, otherwise the images autorefresh and that is not good for post storm analysis!

2 products issued by NWS for: Daly City CA
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
224 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-091300-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
224 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

...WET AND WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THE
REMNANT OF FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR.

RAIN AND INCREASING WIND WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE STRONGEST WINDS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 INCHES. IN
THE HILLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS
TO BE IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS.
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS.

RAIN AND WIND WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE EAST.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM INCLUDE:

* MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS FROM RECENTLY BURNED AREAS THIS PAST SUMMER
AND LAST SUMMER.
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
* HIGH WINDS PRODUCING POWER OUTAGES FROM POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.
* VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS FROM OIL ON ROADWAYS AND WET LEAVES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES ON THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

$$

STROBIN

My friend lives in Daly City, and I remember a couple winters ago they had a storm system similar to this move through and SFO (San Fran International Airport) recorded wind gusts up to 60 mph...her window ended up getting broken in one of the stronger gusts and her room by the window got soaked before her and her parents got a piece of plywood put up in front of it.

[brunota2003]

A strong storm system is forecast to move into the area during the day Monday and last into late Tuesday and early Wednesday. This system is expected to produce strong gusty southerly winds and periods of heavy rain. Monitor our website at http://www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco and/or your NOAA weather radio for forecast updates and additional weather information.

[I-wall]

I live in Sacramento and will be waiting to see what this system brings. I was here for that big storm 2 years ago that you were talking about. I lost power in sacramento and several big trees were blown down. It was by far the most powerful storm i've ever witnessed in California.

I'm curious what's happening with this one though. It looks like the center is pulling away to the north-northeast so i'm curious if this is going to be as strong as they're forecasting.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Update this morning...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

VALID 12Z WED OCT 14 2009 - 12Z SAT OCT 17 2009


...STRONG EAST PACIFIC STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK...

GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK REGARDING THE FCST SCENARIO
OF A COMBINATION OF INITIAL ERN PAC TROF ENERGY AND SOME NRN
STREAM ENERGY EVENTUALLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN CONUS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK WHILE AN ERN PAC TROF AND WEST COAST OR WRN NOAM RIDGE
EVOLVES UPSTREAM. LATEST GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONTINUE TO SHOW UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
EVOLUTION AND THEREFORE ARE PREFERRED FOR THE MID-LATE PORTION OF
THE FCST WHILE AWAITING BETTER OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS. BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BOTH OFFER SOME
QUESTION MARKS WHEN COMPARED TO THE DOMINANT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...
WITH THE GFS POSSIBLY BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE FROM THE ERN PAC
INTO WRN-CNTRL NOAM AND TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SEWD EXTENT OF ERN
CONUS TROF ENERGY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC BY
DAY 7 SAT IS ALIGNED FARTHER WWD THAN CONSENSUS OR AVERAGE OF
PREVIOUS RECENT ECMWF RUNS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD... THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN IS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE SOLN SPREAD WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN PAC WITH SOME MID LVL HGT ANOMALIES REACHING
4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ONE OF
THE STRONGEST SOLNS WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON
TUE... BUT THE ECMWF IS ON THE WEAK EDGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DAYS 3-4 TUE-WED START WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS IN DECREASING ORDER OF WEIGHTING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ARRAY OF LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS AND
TO YIELD A MODEST WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS OF EARLY DAY 4 WED.
THEN DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT EMPLOY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HANDLING OF FLOW ALOFT AND THE CORRESPONDING SFC EVOLUTION.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS EMAIN SIMILAR WITH AN EQUAL BLEND OF 00Z
GFS/ECMWF THRU DAYS 5 THEN ADDING IN THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND
ECMWF TO THE 00Z OP GFS FOR DETAIL DAYS 6 AND 7.

STRONG EPAC STORM DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH A HIGH IMPACT ON THE CENTRAL
NRN CA COAST AND NWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY THIS PERIOD. HIGH ONSHORE WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH
WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH VERY HVY RAINFALL FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND NWD AND EWD INTO THE SIERRA. POTENTIAL FOR
MDT TO HVY COASTAL RAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS PT CONCEPTION.
INGREDIENTS COMING INTO PLACE WITH VERY LOW ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL
HTS OFF THE COAST COMBINED WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWS/850-700 MB
MOISTURE FLUX/ AND INCREASED DIVERGENCE UNDER THE RIGHT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET CORE COMING INTO THE CA COAST AND AIDED BY
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUES INTO WED. EXPECT 4-6 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE COMMON AND HIGHER OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

[I-wall]

Yesterday I didnt think this looked so great, but today it looks like it's picking up steam and is becoming more cyclonic as opposed to an open jet-stream. The forecast on weather.com says this is supposed to strengthen today. Sacramento already has a wind advisory up for tomorrow.

[I-wall]

Cloudy here in Sacramento. No rain or wind yet. Should start picking up by tomorrow morning.

[I-wall]

Still not much wind or rain to speak of in Sacramento. I'm sure i'll wake up to much different conditions.....

[I-wall]

Lots of wind and rain now.

[I-wall]

The pressure is down to 968 millibars. Here in Sacramento, winds are gusting to 40 mph, and we have already had 2.3 inches of rain since this morning (according to a local weather station on Wunderground).

As i'm writing this, horizontal rain is whipping by next to my window. This is a good strong storm for us Californians, but this doesnt quite match up against the Jan. 4th storm we had in 2006. Let's see if this gets any worse or if conditions start to improve. I have feeling this is just about over.

[I-wall]

Looks like the rain is over for Sacramento (for now anyways). The winds are still quite gusty though.

I read an unofficial rainfall report of 2.63 inches here in Sacramento.

[breeze]

From NWS San Francisco Area/ Monterey:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... TR&pil=PNS



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT


NOUS46 KMTR 132109
PNSMTR

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
206 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OCTOBER 13TH STORM...

THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THIS RAIN EVENT
THROUGH 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITION RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING SO THE RAINFALL TOTALS LISTED BELOW WILL LIKELY
INCREASE.

.SONOMA COUNTY
VNOC1 VENADO 1260`................ 5.28
HWKC1 HAWKEYE RAWS 2024`.......... 3.66

.NAPA COUNTY
NAPC1 ATLAS PEAK 1680`............ 3.76

.MARIN COUNTY
EYSC1 PT REYES STATION............ 3.82
BBEC1 BARNABY RAWS 810`........... 4.75
NBRC1 BIG ROCK RAWS 1500`......... 3.46
KTFC1 KENTFIELD................... 5.04
MDEC1 MIDDLE PK RAWS 2339`........ 5.63
ACMC1 MILL VALLEY................. 2.72

.SAN FRANCISCO CITY/COUNTY
SFOC1 SAN FRANCISCO DNTOWN........ 2.10

.SAN MATEO COUNTY
SBMC1 SAN BRUNO MTN 900`....... 1.30
LAHC1 LA HONDA RAWS............... 3.67

.SANTA CLARA COUNTY
PAAC1 PALO ALTO................... 1.14
UMNC1 MOUNT UMUNHUM 3090`......... 8.07
SJCC1 CITY OF SAN JOSE............ 1.10
MRGC1 MORGIN HILL................. 1.42
MHMC1 MOUNT HAMILTON 4198`........ 1.81

.CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
REOC1 RODEO FIRE STATION.......... 2.01
PLEC1 BRIONES RAWS 1450`.......... 2.89
ODAC1 ORINDA FIRE STATION......... 2.24
AGAC1 ST MARYS COLLEGE............ 3.14
YGNC1 YGNACIO VALLEY FIRE......... 1.84
VAUC1 MT DIABLO PEAK 3691`........ 2.51
DSRC1 DUBLIN FIRE STATION......... 1.78
KGRC1 KREGOR PEAK 1893`........... 1.87
LVMC1 MALORY RDG RAWS 2040`....... 2.69

.ALAMEDA COUNTY
OKSC1 OAKLAND SO RAWS 1184`....... 2.42
RSPC1 ROSE PEAK RAWS 3060`........ 1.26

.SAN CRUZ COUNTY
BOUC1 LAS CUMBRS PK 2760`......... 5.47
BNDC1 BEN LOMD RAWS 2630`......... 7.53
BUSC1 BURRELL FIRE 1850`.......... 5.24
DAPC1 DAVENPORT 10`............... 2.04
RRDC1 RIDER ROAD 1123`............ 4.53
EKNC1 EUREKA CANYON 1700`......... 5.63
SOQC1 SOQUEL 21`.................. 2.91
PVYC1 PLEASNT VALLEY 360`......... 2.56
CTOC1 CORRALITOS RAWS............. 4.35

.MONTEREY COUNTY
PTPC1 POINT PINOS................. 1.73
AMSC1 ANDREW MOLERA............... 4.57
PPSC1 BIG SUR RAWS................ 3.95
BADC1 CAMP ROBERTS................ 0.51
FHLC1 FT HUNTER LIGGETT........... 1.73
TPKC1 THREE PEAKS 3362`.......... 6.89
LOWC1 CHALK PEAK 3432`........... 4.73
PYPC1 PINYON PEAK 5230`.......... 3.97
ANPC1 ANDERSON PEAK 3368`........ 6.50
BCOC1 BLACK CONE 4661`........... 4.61
CHWC1 CHEWS RIDGE 4905`.......... 2.68
RALC1 CENTRAL 4766`.............. 4.60
LPRC1 LOS PADRES DAM 1036`....... 2.71
TORC1 MOUNT TORO 2338`........... 0.75
SJBC1 FREMONT PEAK 2837`......... 0.59

.SAN BENITO COUNTY
PCLC1 PINNACLES RAWS 1350`........ 0.47



MEHLE

[ritar]

From NWS San Francisco Area/ Monterey:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... TR&pil=PNS
San Francisco WeddingSan Francisco Limousine
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NOUS46 KMTR 132109
PNSMTR
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
206 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009
...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OCTOBER 13TH STORM...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THIS RAIN EVENT
THROUGH 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITION RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING SO THE RAINFALL TOTALS LISTED BELOW WILL LIKELY
INCREASE.

.SONOMA COUNTY
VNOC1 VENADO 1260`................ 5.28
HWKC1 HAWKEYE RAWS 2024`.......... 3.66

.NAPA COUNTY
NAPC1 ATLAS PEAK 1680`............ 3.76

.MARIN COUNTY
EYSC1 PT REYES STATION............ 3.82
BBEC1 BARNABY RAWS 810`........... 4.75
NBRC1 BIG ROCK RAWS 1500`......... 3.46
KTFC1 KENTFIELD................... 5.04
MDEC1 MIDDLE PK RAWS 2339`........ 5.63
ACMC1 MILL VALLEY................. 2.72

.SAN FRANCISCO CITY/COUNTY
SFOC1 SAN FRANCISCO DNTOWN........ 2.10

.SAN MATEO COUNTY
SBMC1 SAN BRUNO MTN 900`....... 1.30
LAHC1 LA HONDA RAWS............... 3.67

.SANTA CLARA COUNTY
PAAC1 PALO ALTO................... 1.14
UMNC1 MOUNT UMUNHUM 3090`......... 8.07
SJCC1 CITY OF SAN JOSE............ 1.10
MRGC1 MORGIN HILL................. 1.42
MHMC1 MOUNT HAMILTON 4198`........ 1.81

.CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
REOC1 RODEO FIRE STATION.......... 2.01
PLEC1 BRIONES RAWS 1450`.......... 2.89
ODAC1 ORINDA FIRE STATION......... 2.24
AGAC1 ST MARYS COLLEGE............ 3.14
YGNC1 YGNACIO VALLEY FIRE......... 1.84
VAUC1 MT DIABLO PEAK 3691`........ 2.51
DSRC1 DUBLIN FIRE STATION......... 1.78
KGRC1 KREGOR PEAK 1893`........... 1.87
LVMC1 MALORY RDG RAWS 2040`....... 2.69

.ALAMEDA COUNTY
OKSC1 OAKLAND SO RAWS 1184`....... 2.42
RSPC1 ROSE PEAK RAWS 3060`........ 1.26

.SAN CRUZ COUNTY
BOUC1 LAS CUMBRS PK 2760`......... 5.47
BNDC1 BEN LOMD RAWS 2630`......... 7.53
BUSC1 BURRELL FIRE 1850`.......... 5.24
DAPC1 DAVENPORT 10`............... 2.04
RRDC1 RIDER ROAD 1123`............ 4.53
EKNC1 EUREKA CANYON 1700`......... 5.63
SOQC1 SOQUEL 21`.................. 2.91
PVYC1 PLEASNT VALLEY 360`......... 2.56
CTOC1 CORRALITOS RAWS............. 4.35

.MONTEREY COUNTY
PTPC1 POINT PINOS................. 1.73
AMSC1 ANDREW MOLERA............... 4.57
PPSC1 BIG SUR RAWS................ 3.95
BADC1 CAMP ROBERTS................ 0.51
FHLC1 FT HUNTER LIGGETT........... 1.73
TPKC1 THREE PEAKS 3362`.......... 6.89
LOWC1 CHALK PEAK 3432`........... 4.73
PYPC1 PINYON PEAK 5230`.......... 3.97
ANPC1 ANDERSON PEAK 3368`........ 6.50
BCOC1 BLACK CONE 4661`........... 4.61
CHWC1 CHEWS RIDGE 4905`.......... 2.68
RALC1 CENTRAL 4766`.............. 4.60
LPRC1 LOS PADRES DAM 1036`....... 2.71
TORC1 MOUNT TORO 2338`........... 0.75
SJBC1 FREMONT PEAK 2837`......... 0.59
.SAN BENITO COUNTY
PCLC1 PINNACLES RAWS 1350`........ 0.47
MEHLE

Excellent info. Thanks for posting.