WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[HURAKAN]

Hey Hurakan, where did you get this CloudSat image with the reflectivity cross-section at the bottom? That's incredible.

It's under "cloudsat"

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[drdavisjr]

So, if I understand correctly, what we are hoping for is that the steering ridge weakens enough to allow Lupit to move more poleward. Are there still indications of this happening?

[cycloneye]

0300z Warning from JTWC=60kts

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.7N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.8N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.5N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 136.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 945 NM EAST OF
LUZON, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 564
WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 13.0N 137.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 13.8N 134.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 180000UTC 14.8N 132.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 190000UTC 15.5N 131.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TPPN11 PGTW 160022

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 13.2N

D. 137.3E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CONVECTION WRAPPED A 1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1918Z 12.6N 138.5E AMSU
15/1957Z 12.6N 138.4E SSMI
15/2113Z 12.9N 137.9E SSMI
15/2234Z 12.9N 137.9E SSMS


BRANDON

[oaba09]

So, if I understand correctly, what we are hoping for is that the steering ridge weakens enough to allow Lupit to move more poleward. Are there still indications of this happening?

That's what we're hoping for...most models are saying that the storm will move a little bit to the north then continue it's WNW movement...If this happens, the extreme north will be the part w/c will get hit by Lupit....

[ozonepete]

So, if I understand correctly, what we are hoping for is that the steering ridge weakens enough to allow Lupit to move more poleward. Are there still indications of this happening?

That's what we're hoping for...most models are saying that the storm will move a little bit to the north then continue it's WNW movement...If this happens, the extreme north will be the part w/c will get hit by Lupit....

Yes. that's the latest reasoning.

[ozonepete]

Hey Hurakan, where did you get this CloudSat image with the reflectivity cross-section at the bottom? That's incredible.

It's under "cloudsat"

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Thanks a lot! I could tell that it was from the Navy site, but I looked all over and somehow missed that button. This is a great new tool, even though still experimental. (Don't think it's being used operationally yet anywhere. Pro Mets correct me if I'm wrong.)

[Infdidoll]

Hey now, some of us aren't hoping it moves poleward...unless it wants to do it right this minute and not wait till later. However, I am hoping it does move away from the Philippines. How much beating can a country take?

[drdavisjr]

Hey now, some of us aren't hoping it moves poleward...unless it wants to do it right this minute and not wait till later. However, I am hoping it does move away from the Philippines. How much beating can a country take?

Interesting, the only way I see it missing the Philippines is for it to jog a bit poleward. If it was to keep it's current track, it would landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Isabela.

But I believe, like everyone has said, that it's still too early to tell for certain.

By the way, here is an interesting chart.

[oaba09]

Hey now, some of us aren't hoping it moves poleward...unless it wants to do it right this minute and not wait till later. However, I am hoping it does move away from the Philippines. How much beating can a country take?

Interesting, the only way I see it missing the Philippines is for it to jog a bit poleward. If it was to keep it's current track, it would landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Isabela.

But I believe, like everyone has said, that it's still too early to tell for certain.

By the way, here is an interesting chart.

It's really hard to predict it this early....Parma had a lot of different predictions before it made a landfall.....Anyway, PAGASA said that it will probably enter the Philippine Area of responsibility at 9 PM today(local time)...

[Infdidoll]

Hey now, some of us aren't hoping it moves poleward...unless it wants to do it right this minute and not wait till later. However, I am hoping it does move away from the Philippines. How much beating can a country take?

Interesting, the only way I see it missing the Philippines is for it to jog a bit poleward. If it was to keep it's current track, it would landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Isabela.

But I believe, like everyone has said, that it's still too early to tell for certain.

By the way, here is an interesting chart.

That is interesting...God only knows which way this thing is going at this point. I was wondering what you weather-watchers with more experience think: Does it look like there could be another depression forming around Wake Island behind this system? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html - Looks like some distinct rotation, to me. Wondering if we're in for another few busy weeks...

[oaba09]

Is it me or does Lupit look like a big storm?

[drdavisjr]

Is it me or does Lupit look like a big storm?

It looks like to me that it is still intensifying. It is a T3.8 (Dvorak CI#), which is still a Tropical Storm. I think T4.0 is a Typhoon, if I am not mistaken.

As for actual size? It looks very big, yes.

[drdavisjr]

Here is a cool graphic, but I have a question. What is Forecast Interpolation as opposed to Combo for the Position Fix Method?

[StormingB81]

This thing if it hits as its forcasted in northern phillipines it looks like its outer bands can go from okinawa to south phillipnes..anyone else see that?

**The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.**

[StormingB81]

I wonder how big this is in comparing with other large storms. I am sure it is no where near the record of Typhoon Tip whic hwas a monster of a size. But it would be interesting to compare because it looks farily large. Would anyone know? would wikipedia be my friend in this search? Are there any weather search sites?

[drdavisjr]

JTWC now has this as a typhoon.

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 135.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ILLUSTRATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE VERY NARROW (ONLY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES, NORTH TO SOUTH) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T4.5), KNES
(T4.0) AND RJTD (T3.5). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW
POSITION FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 160444Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH CAPTURES THE WRAPPING CONVECTION AND DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE.
TY LUPIT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE. THOUGH THE NUMERICAL MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE SPEED AND POLEWARD TURN
OF LUPIT, THEY HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EXTENDED
TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 16 October 2009
<Analyses at 16/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00'(14.0°)
E134°55'(134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 370km(200NM)