WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

Yes, and JMA also has landfall further south. So does ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

JMA latest track.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[drdavisjr]

This is quickly becoming a very powerful storm, and it appears to have taken a very west track over the last 2-3 hours. It seems to be advancing quickly.

These are just my very novice observations. Could anyone else give me their observations?

[Typhoon10]

Any chance of coming near or direct hit on HK?

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 16 October 2009
<Analyses at 16/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E440km(240NM)
W370km(200NM)

[leanne_uk]

Latest

[somethingfunny]

Crap. There's the pinhole coming in....

Good luck Luzon folks. Stay safe.

[oaba09]

Looks like it's going to be a direct hit on the north....The problem is, because of the sheer size of this storm, it seems like it can cause heavy rainfall to the southern parts of luzon...

[oaba09]

Latest

LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THIS THING!!!!

[Macrocane]

Another one with a pinhole eye, that's no good for Phillipines.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 683
WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 14.1N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 15.6N 131.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 181200UTC 16.2N 130.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191200UTC 16.8N 129.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 133.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

^It's moving westward again...

[drdavisjr]

^It's moving westward again...

Yes, it is. However, JTWC seems pretty confident with their forecast reasoning.

We wait and see (and hope) it does that jog poleward.

[ricmood]

I think this thing will curve north, towards japan

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA website has been offline since before 5pm. How's that for responsible?

[drdavisjr]

I think this thing will curve north, towards japan

OH? What are you seeing that we might not be?

[vbhoutex]

I think this thing will curve north, towards japan

Why do you think this? Give us your reasoning.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive typhoon