WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[ricmood]

Its going north now. Hope this continues for the sake of the philippines.
Praying to Higher Powers this thing curves northeast

[drdavisjr]

Its going north now. Hope this continues for the sake of the philippines.
Praying to Higher Powers this thing curves northeast

The most recent satellite loop that I am watching shows a slight move to due west in the most recent frame.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... scolw.html

[oaba09]

Its going north now. Hope this continues for the sake of the philippines.
Praying to Higher Powers this thing curves northeast

The most recent satellite loop that I am watching shows a slight move to due west in the most recent frame.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... scolw.html

You're right....it seems to have moved slightly to the west.....This typhoon is honestly hard to predict...

[drdavisjr]

Hopefully it has more north movement in it still to come...

[drdavisjr]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

[JTE50]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

I'd be watching frame by frame too after 2 hits hits already. Not getting any data at all would make me go nuts.

The US coastline doesn't have mountains and they don't have to worry about massive amounts of water coming down the mountains. In Jamaica during Hurricane Dean, I saw the results of mountain water runoff - a 1/4 mile long bridge 40 feet above a river disappeared during the night of Hurricane Dean. I mean it was totally wiped out - washed out to sea. That is a very scary thought if you live near mountains.

[oaba09]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

Well, this is the 3rd typhoon in a span of less than 1 month.......I guess we're a little paranoid

[drdavisjr]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

I'd be watching frame by frame too after 2 hits hits already. Not getting any data at all would make me go nuts.

The US coastline doesn't have mountains and they don't have to worry about massive amounts of water coming down the mountains. In Jamaica during Hurricane Dean, I saw the results of mountain water runoff - a 1/4 mile long bridge 40 feet above a river disappeared during the night of Hurricane Dean. I mean it was totally wiped out - washed out to sea. That is a very scary thought if you live near mountains.

Thank you for that!

Unfortunately, we're not seeing that comforting 3 degree push to the north yet. It has us in Metro Manila a little tense; well, me anyway. I can't imagine the poor folks that rely on 6 hr updates from PAGASA.

[vbhoutex]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

None of the staff considers it nuts. We see it all the time on these forums. We call it wobble watching. I am not being disrespectful at all either. Sometimes it can drive one crazy trying to interpret every wobble of a TC(and they all wobble), but after what you have been through I would probably be doing the same even though I "know better". We pray everything turns out for the best and that pun was intended.

[HURAKAN]

17/0230 UTC 15.4N 132.4E T5.0/5.0 LUPIT -- West Pacific

Dvorak - 90 knots

[drdavisjr]

[drdavisjr]

The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

None of the staff considers it nuts. We see it all the time on these forums. We call it wobble watching. I am not being disrespectful at all either. Sometimes it can drive one crazy trying to interpret every wobble of a TC(and they all wobble), but after what you have been through I would probably be doing the same even though I "know better". We pray everything turns out for the best and that pun was intended.

Thank you...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[drdavisjr]

Latest

Honestly. a "beautiful" storm, too bad it's name is Lupit (cruel in Tagalog).

[cebuboy]

I am from Cebu, Philipines. It is good to know the center won't pass Visayas. But the probability of hitting of Luzon is high (again and again). What I don't understand is that lots of people gets killed for each typhoon. Those evacuation agencies, government agencies and even the EFFORTS of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as well as its Disaster council is JUST NOT ENOUGH or INSUFFICIENT to save people.

I blame the government for each people killed, for if you need to save lives, your leadership will convince them to move to another safe location. Right now, I do not see this leadership happening. And people will resist to move or relocate especially those in mountain barangays prone to landslide or cities nearby dam. It just sad to know, that people get killed and its make us conclude apparently that it looks normal and acceptable to the government. Its just sick to know.

Now that this typhoon is coming, government agencies may done the job, but reality is people gets killed again. In short, doing the job and achieving less than people expectations. Thanks for the forecast I have seen in this forum. This is more lively, entertaining and up to date than our PAGASA which is financed by our taxes but looks to slow in making accurate forecast. I am a bit emotional, I am hanging around in this forum for some time.

[drdavisjr]

I am from Cebu, Philipines. It is good to know the center won't pass Visayas. But the probability of hitting of Luzon is high (again and again). What I don't understand is that lots of people gets killed for each typhoon. Those evacuation agencies, government agencies and even the EFFORTS of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as well as its Disaster council is JUST NOT ENOUGH or INSUFFICIENT to save people.

I blame the government for each people killed, for if you need to save lives, your leadership will convince them to move to another safe location. Right now, I do not see this leadership happening. And people will resist to move or relocate especially those in mountain barangays prone to landslide or cities nearby dam. It just sad to know, that people get killed and its make us conclude apparently that it looks normal and acceptable to the government. Its just sick to know.

Now that this typhoon is coming, government agencies may done the job, but reality is people gets killed again. In short, doing the job and achieving less than people expectations. Thanks for the forecast I have seen in this forum. This is more lively, entertaining and up to date than our PAGASA which is financed by our taxes but looks to slow in making accurate forecast. I am a bit emotional, I am hanging around in this forum for some time.

I was still in the US at the time of Hurricane Katrina. I remember that at least 1 day before the storm was to make landfall, Mayor Nagin did start evacuating the people of New Orleans. Of course, like here, some people refused or were unable to leave. I love the Philippines and the Filipino people and am proud to have lived here for over three years. But, as an American , I am often is disbelief at the way the government reacts to disaster, rescue and cleanup. The people DESERVE much better.

[Macrocane]

It seems that Rick and Lupit are in a race to become intense tropical cyclones both look very good (the structure of the cyclones not the situation). As I've said earlier even if you don't live in the direct path of Lupit you could be affected with rains due to its large cloud and convective fields, the best thing people can do is evacuate if they live in dangerous areas.

[drdavisjr]

The forum admin just made mention of TC "wobble" and I know what he is trying to say.

I have a very direct question at anyone who is willing to answer.

Does it appear that the low pressure trough did it's job in time before this ridge from the northwest arrived? Because it looks like the ridge is distorting the organization of the typhoon.

Any takers?

[erg123]

Soon erupts ！

[ricmood]

Moving poleward again. Keep your hopes up, Philippines. Continue praying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t4/flash-rgb.html