WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

drdavisjr · #201 Postby **drdavisjr** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 2:18 am

I have been reading all the prognosting reasoning, have been watching very closely the movement of Lupit. It seems to have begun the part of the forecast where it is quasistationary. I read that there was a poleward channel over southern Japan that is supposed to be eventually blocked by the developing high pressure area over China. (It appears to my untrained eye that this has already occured.)

The next part of the forecast was for the storm to regain it wnw tract towards the Philippines. But this was supposed to happen with the storm at around 17 degrees???

Now I'm hearing (and I've placed the graphic where I heard this below) that the storm could eventually take a wsw turn after 36 hrs?

Now, I know this is a worst case scenario. But I am now starting to wonder if we (Manila - Central Luzon) should start taking precautions or I am just being paranoid?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#202 Postby **oaba09** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 2:44 am

It seems like there are still quite a number of possibilities

#203 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:26 am

vbhoutex wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:The moderator and the other members probably think we're a little nuts reacting to each new frame in a loop.

Needless to say, we're a bit weary this month...

None of the staff considers it nuts. We see it all the time on these forums. We call it wobble watching. I am not being disrespectful at all either. Sometimes it can drive one crazy trying to interpret every wobble of a TC(and they all wobble), but after what you have been through I would probably be doing the same even though I "know better". We pray everything turns out for the best and that pun was intended.

Wow! Nobody could have said it better.

#204 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:31 am

We can see it now - Lupit is pushing up against the trough. Between now and tomorrow it will make some strange moves, so all I would say (especially considering vbhoutex's wise advice and Derek's warning about the possible loop) is don't make any conclusions on the wobbles and wiggles today. It won't show its next decisive path until later today or tonight.

Typhoon10 · #205 Postby **Typhoon10** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:59 am

PAGASA has it on the below track. Hitting just north of Philippines. I hope it does that, doesnt lose strength then heads up to HK!

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html

Typhoon10 · #206 Postby **Typhoon10** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:04 am

oaba09 wrote:It seems like there are still quite a number of possibilities

Why is it V shaped and no possibilities in the middle? (Cause in the middle would head towards HK

)

#207 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:05 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 15.9N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 16.8N 131.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 190600UTC 17.1N 130.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 200600UTC 18.3N 127.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

#208 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:23 am

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.0N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.2N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 132.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION, WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND AN IMPROVING EYE. CURRENTLY THE DEEPEST BAND OF
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LUPIT AND IS WRAPPING
INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS WELL, A CHANGE FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. A RECENT 170120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
THAT THE WIND DISTRIBUTION IS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, SUPPORTING THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE TRACK
SPEED HAS MAINTAINED AT 07 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS
NOT CURRENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING, HOWEVER THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA,
WHICH IS DIGGING TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON, INDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TY 22W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THIS
WEAKENING IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECREASED TRACK SPEEDS IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Typhoon10 · #209 Postby **Typhoon10** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:43 am

Hurakan,

If I read your post correctly, the prediction is it could hit the tip of Philippines with 160Knot gusts? That 300kmh a hour????

#210 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:51 am

JMA 12 UTC warning.

0920
TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 17 October 2009
<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°05'(16.1°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE480km(260NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

#211 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 8:31 am

1500z Warning from JTWC=105 kts

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.0N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.6N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

#212 Postby **oaba09** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 8:42 am

The forecasts seem to be getting better and better for the Philippines...I hope by the time I wake up tomorrow, the forecasts will have this typhoon totally missing the country

Typhoon10 · #213 Postby **Typhoon10** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 9:47 am

Yes, I think it goes north misses the philippines then heads towards HK.

ricmood · #214 Postby **ricmood** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:26 am

But we dont want it looping then going southwest. That would be disaster for Manila.

#215 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:46 am

Potent typhoon

#216 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:49 am

17/1430 UTC 16.5N 132.4E T6.0/6.0 LUPIT -- West Pacific

I-wall · #217 Postby **I-wall** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:02 pm

Looks to be on a due north track right now. Hopefully this continues long enough for the Philippines to be in the clear.

#218 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:19 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 16:43:45 N Lon : 132:25:35 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.3mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

#219 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:53 pm

JMA 18 UTC warning:

Moving NNE.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 17 October 2009
<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°40'(16.7°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE480km(260NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E132°25'(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E130°25'(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

#220 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:59 pm

Just noticed the CMA have increased their forecast from peaking at 55m/s to 65m/s.

WTPQ20 BABJ 171800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY LUPIT 0920 (0920) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC
00HR 16.7N 132.6E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 200KM
P12HR N 3KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 132.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 18.2N 128.5E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 18.5N 124.6E 910HPA 65M/S
P+96HR 18.5N 120.2E 910HPA 65M/S=

WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

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