WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (93W)

[cycloneye]

Making landfall in Vietnam.

[HURAKAN]

The center is still offshore, it's being sheared to the west.

[HURAKAN]

18z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 112E WEST SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

Good ol' shear

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 170930
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 112.3E TO 17.2N 109.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 170530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 111.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180930Z.

[HURAKAN]

06z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[cycloneye]

WTPN21 PGTW 180930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170921ZOCT09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 111.3E TO 16.5N 108.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
110.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
110.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A WELL ORGANIZED CENTER,
AND WINDS BETWEEN 17 AND 22 KNOTS BASED ON A 180239Z ASCAT PASS. THE
LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE CENTER AS IT APPROACHES THE CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.
AN 180611Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION
HAS STARTED TO BUILD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND IS
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. AS THE LLCC TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190930Z.//

[HURAKAN]

06z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 112E WNW SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

Still looks sheared

[HurricaneRobert]

This isn't Parma again, is it?

[Macrocane]

This isn't Parma again, is it?

No it's not, it is an area of low pressure that has been just off Vietnam for a few days but Parma had already made landfall.

[HURAKAN]

This isn't Parma again, is it?

No it's not, it is an area of low pressure that has been just off Vietnam for a few days but Parma had already made landfall.

Parma is dead and gone