Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[Ivanhater]

The 12z Euro sure thinks so. With this new data, this area deserves its own thread. Suspicious area down there. According to the Euro, deveopment in about 96 hours

[cycloneye]

As I said in the models thread,this has two things going in favor of it,first climatology and second,this model has been the most reliable in 2009.

Whole run at loop below.

12z ECMWF Loop

[Macrocane]

Thursday and Friday it was a tropical storm and now a hurricane. This is cerainly something to watch, Euro has been consistent developing a system on the Caribbean and as cycloneye said it has been the most reliable model this season in all the basins. We have to watch for intensity consistency (cyclogenesis consistency is already present) also we have to see if other models are on board o the next few days.

[jinftl]

"i'da" rather not see a storm form in this region...

[cycloneye]

More graphics from the 12z EURO:

[Ivanhater]

[jinftl]

Watching the trend on this graphic that NOAA releases every 6 hours...tropical cyclone formation probability

[ronjon]

ECM shear forecast is for light winds east of the CA coast which expand into the western caribbean in 7 days. Have to watch this one - it's in about the only place it can develop with the UL winds.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[tailgater]

I was just thinking earlier this week that we will have to watch the area to the south of this this big High pressure over the SE US, but I'll be a bit surprised if the T-storm complex in the southern Caribbean gains enough Latitude to become a threat to anyone except Central America

[CrazyC83]

It's probably the best conditions any hurricane zone has seen in weeks there, so I could see a hurricane there easily forming...

[Ivanhater]

hwrf develops as well

[wxman57]

That wave in the SW Caribbean was over the Lesser Antilles 3 days ago. Should be inland tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

That wave in the SW Caribbean was over the Lesser Antilles 3 days ago. Should be inland tomorrow.

This particular wave is not what the Euro is developing anyway.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 77W WHILE GENTLE BREEZE TRADEWINDS ARE W OF 77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N71W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF HONDURAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

[wxman57]

That wave in the SW Caribbean was over the Lesser Antilles 3 days ago. Should be inland tomorrow.

This particular wave is not what the Euro is developing anyway.

Yeah, I know. There's another wave near 50W now that should be in the SW Caribbean in about 4 days - about the time the EC develops the low. Canadian and GFS don't forecast any such development on the 12Z run.

It's an area to keep an eye on this time of year, particularly when cold fronts make it into the region and enhance convection.

[PTrackerLA]

The Euro REALLY like this system. Definitely something to watch in the days ahead.

[Ivanhater]

That wave in the SW Caribbean was over the Lesser Antilles 3 days ago. Should be inland tomorrow.

This particular wave is not what the Euro is developing anyway.

Yeah, I know. There's another wave near 50W now that should be in the SW Caribbean in about 4 days - about the time the EC develops the low. Canadian and GFS don't forecast any such development on the 12Z run.

It's an area to keep an eye on this time of year, particularly when cold fronts make it into the region and enhance convection.

Yeah. I must say, I was not expecting such a strong run from the Euro, but coming from the most reliable model this season, it must be watched.

[deltadog03]

Well, well well.....Euro has been showing this for a couple of runs now, and like posted before, its getting stronger and stronger with this. Full fledge hurricane drifting north over the Eastern gom. For you tropics fans, this is prolly it with this MJO burst.

[Blown Away]

Wow, wouldn't that be something to have a cane before the end of this season. Boy that looks like a typical W Caribbean track towards SFL. Being a potential system that late in the season I would go w/ a more E track away from SFL and more towards E Cuba/Hispaniola. I like the idea of something to track, but I don't like the idea of a big hurricane, especially from the Euro, because being in the W Caribbean it will effect somebody.

[jinftl]

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is higher (and more widespread) this year in the NW Caribbean into the area off the FL Keys and the Straits of Florida than it has been on the same date for the prior 2 years. This is essentially an area of high-octane fuel that could feed any storm that moves into that area, esp if the shear is low and the atmosphere conducive to strengthening.

10/15/09:




Compared to 10/15/08:




Compared to 10/15/07:

[Blown Away]

Great illustration. If there were to be a Wilma type track towards SFL it would be over warm waters almost to the approach to SFL.