EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

RICK HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASING TO 127 AND 115 KT
RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 127 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE
WARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS...AND
RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL
IS FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
THESE ARE SIGNS THAT RICK IS PEAKING IN INTENSITY.

RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 18-24 HRS. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN
12-24 HRS. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD
CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS. AFTER
48 HRS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND. THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HRS...AND THEN IS DOWN THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.2N 103.0W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 104.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 107.4W 140 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.2N 109.5W 135 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[CrazyC83]

So much for the eyewall replacement cycle...if the really deep convection can wrap all the way around, I would say Cat 5 easily this afternoon.

[MGC]

And to think this was just upgraded a day and half ago....hopefully Rick will weaken quite a bit before landfall.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:48 N Lon : 103:46:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.1mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.6 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -4.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

17/1745 UTC 14.6N 104.0W T6.5/6.5 RICK -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

957
WHXX01 KMIA 171840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091017 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091017 1800 091018 0600 091018 1800 091019 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 103.9W 15.7N 106.6W 17.0N 109.7W 17.9N 112.4W
BAMD 14.6N 103.9W 15.5N 106.1W 16.8N 108.5W 18.0N 110.6W
BAMM 14.6N 103.9W 15.5N 106.3W 16.6N 109.1W 17.4N 111.5W
LBAR 14.6N 103.9W 15.6N 105.9W 16.5N 108.0W 17.2N 110.1W
SHIP 125KTS 140KTS 141KTS 134KTS
DSHP 125KTS 140KTS 141KTS 134KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091019 1800 091020 1800 091021 1800 091022 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 115.1W 16.6N 118.3W 13.7N 114.2W 17.6N 107.1W
BAMD 19.2N 112.4W 21.3N 114.8W 22.1N 115.7W 22.4N 115.8W
BAMM 17.9N 113.6W 17.7N 115.1W 18.3N 111.8W 22.7N 108.4W
LBAR 18.1N 112.0W 20.2N 114.2W 23.6N 113.6W 27.4N 108.5W
SHIP 124KTS 99KTS 75KTS 51KTS
DSHP 124KTS 99KTS 75KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 103.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 101.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 99.6W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 938MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 135NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 120NM

[CrazyC83]

With the data out there, I would guess 130 kt right now. Pressure guess is 930mb.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 20, 2009101718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1039W, 125, 938, HU, 34, NEQ,

BT holds at 125 kt for now.

[srainhoutx]

[Squarethecircle]

CIMSS ADT:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 932.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 7.0 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +2.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C


Eye is rounding out very nicely.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be almost at Cat 5 with clear sights set on it. I wonder what the NHC will say at the next advisory? My guess is either 130 or 135 kt.

[HURAKAN]

I can't see the NHC keeping Rick at 125 knots in the next advisory. I agree with Squarethecircle, 130 or 135 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:44:55 N Lon : 104:17:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 929.5mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.8 7.1 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +11.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[tolakram]

[Macrocane]

I agree it is at least 130 kt, the eye has become more symmetric and is clear, and the cloud tops have been cooling again.

[Weather Watcher]

Looks like a A in the eye

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 172035
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RICK STILL STRENGTHENING...MAY BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TONIGHT...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
...470 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...
240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RICK AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RICK COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
155 MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 104.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HC 172035
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

RICK IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH THE 10 NM WIDE EYE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT
AT 18Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON
THIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR
14Z INDICATED THAT RICK IS GROWING LARGER IN SIZE...AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.

RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18
HRS OR SO. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN ABOUT 12
HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY
COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LAND INTERACTION ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR DURING THE 96-120 HR
PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. RICK
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
FROM 48-120 HRS. THE 12Z DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST RICK TO MOVE
FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER RECURVATURE THAN THEIR
EARLIER RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF...GDFL...AND HWRF MODELS NOW
FORECASTING RICK TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 96 HRS. THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRACK BUT AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD
FROM AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR
RICK TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 96 HR AND THEN
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 120 HR. IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.8N 104.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W 140 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W 120 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W 65 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN