Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[Ivanhater]

Just on a side note. The gfs was picking up on this a couple days ago. A hurricane forming in the western Caribbean moving into the gulf. The 12z Euro will be interesting

It was forecasting a big low in the Gulf then in the Caribbean at 384 hours a few days ago. That's near the end of October not the 24-25th.

Being in the very long range I would expect timing to be off, but it was sniffing out development in the Western Caribbean near the end of Oct. One thing is for sure, the GFS or Euro will be wrong.

[deltadog03]

I know, euro does have a few problems with tracks at times, but usually its pretty good at sniffing out TC genesis. I generally trust the EURO over the GFS hands down in most wx patterns and situations. I do use the GFS, but would put faith in euro if it was showing something moreso than gfs. Hope that came out right... Anyway, don't know if this will actually happen, talking about euro, but its possible given the mjo is coming across now. IF not, then season is over IMO

[stormcloud]

12z GFS still zippo on development. The only other model I found with something close to EC was one of the ensemble runs of the CMC. Still curious that basically no other model has confirmed EC forecast. Either it'll be a home run for the ECMWF or an embarrassing strike out.

[deltadog03]

I like that theory stormcloud..lol either a grandslam or strike out!

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS still zippo on development. The only other model I found with something close to EC was one of the ensemble runs of the CMC. Still curious that basically no other model has confirmed EC forecast. Either it'll be a home run for the ECMWF or an embarrassing strike out.

Just curious the setup that run had?

[psyclone]

models notwithstanding, it is difficult to imagine anything remotely tropical around here. it is downright chilly today...only 65 right now in tampa with a dewpoint of 45 and a brisk north wind. that should really dent the heat potential in the northern gulf... of course the caribbean is still juiced heat wise.

[cycloneye]

Just on a side note. The gfs was picking up on this a couple days ago. A hurricane forming in the western Caribbean moving into the gulf. The 12z Euro will be interesting

On the 11th GFS had this.

[jinftl]

NOAA has expanded probability of tropical cyclone formation northward in latest update graphic (10/18 12z) compared to the prior graphics below....granted, the probabilities are still on the lower side of the spectrum....but the trend is certainly not backing off yesterday's probability numbers....if anything, they are somewhat higher over a larger area today.

18z run....slight increase in tc formation probability from prior run (12z run shown below)...highest probability is around 13.5N,78W

Watching the trend on this graphic that NOAA releases every 6 hours...tropical cyclone formation probability

[Sanibel]

Suggestion of curvature:

[deltadog03]

hmmm...nice find luis...Kinda looks a bit like euro. Well, same general idea.

[hurricanetrack]

Euro fell off the wagon. Nothing even remotely close to what it was showing over the last few runs. Oh well. Was exciting while it lasted.

[cycloneye]

Dramatic change from ECMWF at the 12z run,no hurricane,only a weak low.See loop at link below.

12z ECMWF

[hurricanetrack]

Yeah Luis I guess that would explain why the other models see nothing- b/c nothing is going to happen. Figures.

[stormcloud]

That 'feels' a little more correct than having a storm heading for Pensacola!

[deltadog03]

I guess that was fun while it lasted...lol

[Macrocane]

Unbelievable not even a TD, how can a big change like that occur after several runs predicting at least a tropical storm? I think that's good for Florida and Caribbean islands, and for hurricane-trackers there is Rick on EPAC and Lupit on WPAC.

[Ivanhater]

Yep big change. If another run of the Euro shows the same thing, then I think we are in the clear. Still a region that has to be watched this time of year

[Derek Ortt]

the EURO is the strongest for the large scale pattern. A TC forming in the SW Carib may not be the strengths of that model. It has had a few busts in terms of predicting significant hurricanes pre genesis (though ALL models do... just shows you cannot take any single model as gospel)

[cycloneye]

I would wait for the 00z run to see if it continues with what this 12z has or if it turns back bullish.Despite this flip-flop,I still regard this model as the most reliable this year.

[wxman57]

12Z EC now in line with the GFS. Ridge across Gulf blocking any northward movement and weak low moving into Central America. More reasonable.