EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[jinftl]

As of the 11am edt advisory, the NHC has placed the probability that Socorro Island experiences at least sustained winds of 34 kt (39 mph) winds at 89%, probability of sustained winds of 50 kt (64 mph) at 63%, and the probability of sustained winds of 64 kt (74 mph) at 39%!!! The timeframe for these winds are from Monday pm into Tuesday am.

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8



[weatherwindow]

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8



luis, do you have that link?..weatherunderground link is not reporting...thanks, rich

[cycloneye]

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8



luis, do you have that link?..weatherunderground link is not reporting...thanks, rich

http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat

Link to other places in the Mexican coast and Baja.

http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/redemas.php

[I-wall]

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8



Which column shows the winds? And is it measured in Knots or MPH?

[cycloneye]

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8



Which column shows the winds? And is it measured in Knots or MPH?

Second and fourth collums.Winds in knots.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...RICK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...RICK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 109.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RICK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AROUND
THE EYE...AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DECREASED.
ALSO...THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS THINNED...WITH A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ABOUT 100
MILES FROM THE CENTER. CONSISTENT WITH THESE TRENDS...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED. DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
WERE 6.5/7.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RICK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT STILL LIES
ABOVE THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND RICK WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL. RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. RICK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 135W AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE RICK TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE HOW QUICKLY RICK WILL MOVE AS IT
RECURVES. BY 72 HOURS...THE ECMWF...GFDL AND GFDN ARE CONSIDERABLY
FASTER...WHILE THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER.
THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW
RICK INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST...RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
TWO OR THREE DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
BAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.4N 109.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Ptarmigan]

Extremely impressive

Just amazing. A really perfect form.

Indeed. Rick is quite a large hurricane for EPAC. I wonder what is the largest EPAC hurricane recorded?

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be so sure about that. Remnants are going to be an issue in TX and points NE. Also MX will feel a powerful punch from Rick regardless.

Some computer models have Rick going over Texas in 5 days. We could see rain from it. One even has Rick over the Gulf of Mexico. Rosa in 1994 did and it led the Great 1994 October Flood.

[jinftl]

The latest advisory has scaled back to the intensity probability forecasts for Rick...as of the 11am advisory today, there was a 99% chance Rick would be a hurricane at 5amTuesday, and of that, the highest percent chance, 42%, he would be a Cat 3 at that time. The probability that Rick would be a hurricnae at 5am Wednesday was 92%, and of that, the highest percent chance, 32%, that he would be a Cat 3 at that time.

As of the latest advisory at 5pm edt, there is a 92% chance Rick would be a hurricane at 11am Tuesday, and of that, the highest percent chance, 32%, he will be a Cat 2 at that time. The probability that Rick will be a hurricnae at 11am Wednesday was 41%. He is more likely to be a tropical storm at that time (47% chance...partially a function of more time over land by that point).

The trend is encouraging....as of the 11am advisory, the probabilities that Cabo San Lucas would experiene sustained winds of 34kt/50kt/64kt in the next 120 hours was: 72%/39%/23%. As of the 5pm advisory, those same probabilities were: 72%/35%/15%. In other words, the probability of sustained winds of hurricane force has gone down.

Wind probabilities as of 5pm edt Sunday advisory:



Compared to wind probabilities from 11am edt Sunday advisory:

[HurricaneRobert]

GFS shows Rick's remnants in the middle of the GOM

[Cookie]

People should invest money on trying to harness this power, not destroy it

agreed

[cycloneye]

739
WHXX01 KMIA 190035
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091019 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 0000 091019 1200 091020 0000 091020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 109.9W 17.9N 112.5W 18.2N 114.6W 17.6N 115.6W
BAMD 16.8N 109.9W 18.0N 111.4W 19.2N 112.4W 20.3N 112.6W
BAMM 16.8N 109.9W 17.8N 111.8W 18.4N 113.1W 18.6N 113.5W
LBAR 16.8N 109.9W 17.9N 111.6W 19.2N 112.9W 20.5N 113.8W
SHIP 130KTS 109KTS 97KTS 89KTS
DSHP 130KTS 109KTS 97KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 0000 091022 0000 091023 0000 091024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 115.4W 15.5N 111.1W 17.4N 108.1W 18.7N 107.2W
BAMD 21.7N 112.3W 24.5N 110.3W 28.9N 103.0W 36.5N 87.6W
BAMM 18.9N 112.9W 20.8N 110.1W 24.1N 106.7W 24.8N 98.8W
LBAR 22.2N 113.9W 25.8N 110.6W 29.5N 102.9W 36.2N 89.6W
SHIP 83KTS 71KTS 30KTS 0KTS
DSHP 83KTS 69KTS 31KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 109.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 107.8W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 105.3W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 155KT
CENPRS = 932MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Derek Ortt]

this looks like a cat 3 hurricane now. Probably 115KT

One thing I have noticed, TCs weaken far faster than Dvorak constraints allow

[HURAKAN]

Derek, the eye still looks very well defined

[Squarethecircle]

Microwave suggests weakened core; possible ERC?



Last visible imagery was still quite impressive:

[cycloneye]

I hope that those 250 people who are at Socorro Island are hunkered down tonight if they didnt go out earlier as the eye will pass close to that location.The dot you see in the images is Socorro Island.

Observations from Socorro Island. Winds picking up,pressure falling.

Code: Select all

Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 2009-10-19-00:00    79.0      20.9      85.0      33.2     24.6     92.0   1002.6      0.2

http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat

[ozonepete]

this looks like a cat 3 hurricane now. Probably 115KT

One thing I have noticed, TCs weaken far faster than Dvorak constraints allow

I noticed that too, and they also can strengthen a lot faster than Dvorak constraints allow. I've read articles that CIMSS (and others) are trying to develop some good algorithms that "know" when to take the constraints off. Their usefulness is clear, but they clearly produce the wrong results in many cases.

[ozonepete]

Derek, the eye still looks very well defined

Hurakan, yes the eye is really well defined, but the entire western side is really opened up now. I would also not give it more than cat 3.

[Squarethecircle]

The southern eyewall is looking very, very bad right now. I'm not sure if it was a 3 on the IR posted above, but you'd be hard pressed to say it looks much better than a 3 right now. Here's the sat:

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, the eye still looks very well defined

yeah, that's why it is still a category 3 hurricane