Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[jinftl]

Sounds like the analysis the NHC gave on TD 24 almost 4 years ago to the date....


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1..
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

As most folks can already guess, TD 24 became Wilma. Will we see another Wilma this year? If I had a million dollars I would be comfortable betting it that we will not see anything near another Wilma. But it does go to show that, especially with systems in the early formative stages, there are lots of unknows and we should never write anything off...esp in this location at this time of year.

12Z EC now in line with the GFS. Ridge across Gulf blocking any northward movement and weak low moving into Central America. More reasonable.

[tolakram]

We need some kind of closed low to develop first, and wind shear is rapidly on the rise. 2005 was the year of no shear, so I doubt anything develops ... but who knows.



I would love to see a shear analysis from this time in 2005.

[hurricanetrack]

Lots of disorganized convection in the region. It is interesting, as was pointed out already, that the GFS had a large hurricane in the northern Gulf on its runs several days ago for the approx time period that the Euro was just showing. So who knows? Maybe it still comes to pass that something does in fact develop but the models are not quite yet in sync for sniffing it out. However, since the CMC shows nothing at all, I would think that we are more likely than not going to have nothing to track from this except for some convection.

[Ivanhater]

Just for informational purposes. 18z NAM

[jinftl]

Sure there was shear in 2005!!! Even the infamous storms….Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, all dealt with shear at some point of their life cycles.

For an extreme example, Dr. Jeff Masters has written an interesting article about Wilma and how she managed to strengthen to a Cat 3 east of Florida in spite of the presence of 40 kts of shear over her. There was shear to 120 kts just to her west at that time as well.


Per Dr. Masters:
Below is the wind shear plot of Hurricane Wilma at 00GMT October 25, 2005. At time time, Wilma had just intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and a 955 mb pressure, despite the presence of 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. Just to the west of Wilma one can see wind shear values of 120 knots, associated with the jet stream.


http://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp


Another storm that dealt with shear….Rita. She had to contend with shear both early and late in her life cycle.
Per the NHC report on Rita in her formative stages, “The depression gradually gained organization on 18 September, with strong convection wrapping around the north side of the low-level circulation center. It became a tropical storm by 1800 UTC that day about 25 n mi east-southeast of the island of Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas. However, moderate southerly vertical shear, to the east of the middle- to upper-level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, continued to affect the system by confining upper-level outflow and deep convection to the north of the center.”

As she moved into the western Gulf, Rita once again dealt with shear, ” By early on 23 September a new, outer eyewall had consolidated and the hurricane had grown in size. However, Rita did not re-intensify following the structural changes. Due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and slightly cooler waters, steady weakening continued on 23 September.”

Ever season has shear....some more than others of course....but there is no such thing as an atmospher without shear.

We need some kind of closed low to develop first, and wind shear is rapidly on the rise. 2005 was the year of no shear, so I doubt anything develops ... but who knows.

I would love to see a shear analysis from this time in 2005.

[Derek Ortt]

120KT of shear in a TC outflow area is ridiculously favorable for intensification. Any rising air is quickly evacuated, resulting in even more upward motion

[wxman57]

Wilma was transitioning to an extratropical storm after passing Florida.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS, showing the low forming now, but moves it in the Epac in the long range. Models starting to sniff something out down there.

[Blown Away]

I wonder if the GFS and EURO are moving a weak shallow low more of a W path and the EURO when it was showing a cane was moving a deeper low/system more N? It doesn't matter if we don't get a low developing, but I'm thinking a developing deeper system will move more N in response to the trough moving through the SE US late this week.

[jinftl]

True. But my point was not that Wilma strengthened in a high shear environment, rather it was to remind folks that 2005....like every year before and after....was not a total 'year of no shear'. Every system at some point....including the big-3 of Katrina, Rita, and Wilma experienced shear, and in some cases, this shear was significant.

No question shear has been unusually pervasive and persistent this year, but in no way is this the first season that has seen tropical systems battling shear during their lifespan. In my opinion, it is actually quite remarkable we have seen 8 named storms...including 2 majors....so far this year. Given the atmospheric conditions, that would have seemed like an unreachable stretch. There have been amateurs...and pro mets...on this board have been been waving the 'that's it folks, the season is done' flag since TS Claudette. I still think we are not done yet....1 or 2 more systems somewhere in the basin is not out of the question. If we hit 10 named storms, we will have had an 'average season' in terms of # of named systems (but not ACE).

Not too shabby...an average number of storms in the 'year of shear'. Imagine if there had been less shear!

Wilma was transitioning to an extratropical storm after passing Florida.

[MGC]

Looks to me like conditions down in the souther part of the NW Carb are favorable for development. Little shear, warm ocean, disturbance in place. Only time will tell if things come together and a TC developes. Naturally, I'm headed to south Fla this coming weekend, just like I was on Oct 23, 2005. We didn't quite make it that year, we had to stop in Orlando. Which was nice to spend a few days in a town that was not nearly completely destroyed. Hopefully is anything does form it stays away from the Keys........MGC

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

It's interesting to note the widespread area of "cold air" stratocumulus blanketing much of the GOM and Atlantic off of Florida, then the more tropical looking area farther south in the SW CAR. Quite a dichotomy of airmasses depending on which side of the front you are talking.

[hurricanetrack]

Gator- nice use of the English language there. Wow. You are right though- quite the "juxtaposition" of air masses. And to think, just on the other side of the Central American land mass is a category five that had 180 mph winds last night. Love it. Weather is the best.

[psyclone]

Bill Kneely on TWC just mentioned that the dewpoint in Cancun has fallen into the 50's! That is amazing and demonstrates the power of this front.

[cycloneye]

JB talks about the Western Caribbean.See video at link below.

Tropics Comming Alive

[Sanibel]

I'm headed to south Fla this coming weekend, just like I was on Oct 23, 2005. We didn't quite make it that year, we had to stop in Orlando. Which was nice to spend a few days in a town that was not nearly completely destroyed. Hopefully is anything does form it stays away from the Keys........MGC

Should warm up nicely by the time you get there.


No predictions on this disturbance. Black IR means nothing this year.

[boca]

That video was from last night before the new euro came out which shows a weaker system moving into Central America.The model doesn't think a connection will be made with the trough heading into the SE US.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9101812!!/

The way the convection looks tonight I think the euro will jump on board again.

[deltadog03]

looks like tonights gfs shows something brewing down there. only out to hour120 tho.

[Ivanhater]

Euro back on board with development..