WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[metenthusiast]

It's not moving much to the north, huh?

It seems to be following the path on wundermap now...

Not really. Wundermap periodically updates recent track observation. It's still south.

Yes, and it's still tracking a bit to the south than their updated track. Lets see if Lupit would follow a more WNW or a westerly or WSW path in the coming hours. I think it would mean a lot for the people of central luzon.

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA just increased the maximum sustained winds of lupit to 195 kph....It's still far from the actual 130 knots(240 kph) that the JTWC has,,,,

I think PAGASA must be using 10 min average whereas JTWC uses 1 min average.

[metenthusiast]

PAGASA just increased the maximum sustained winds of lupit to 195 kph....It's still far from the actual 130 knots(240 kph) that the JTWC has,,,,

Yup. I just watched the afternoon news and they said so. Although based on their model forecast, Lupit's future track would bring it to the extreme north of Luzon. I guess this would not bid good for those depending on PAGASA's forecasts. Especially if Lupit would follow a more WSW-track and take it for granted...

[oaba09]

PAGASA just increased the maximum sustained winds of lupit to 195 kph....It's still far from the actual 130 knots(240 kph) that the JTWC has,,,,

I think PAGASA must be using 10 min average whereas JTWC uses 1 min average.

The difference should only be 14 % right? Pagasa is till off if that's the case

[drdavisjr]

The eye is getting much smaller. I wonder why? Is it getting weaker?

[metenthusiast]

The eye is getting much smaller. I wonder why? Is it getting weaker?

Yes, I also see that on the wundermap model. I wonder what could it mean. I hope we have a Pro Met online to clarify that..

[metenthusiast]

PAGASA's latest model:

[drdavisjr]

JMA keeps moving it lower and lower.

[oaba09]

The eye is getting much smaller. I wonder why? Is it getting weaker?

Yes, I also see that on the wundermap model. I wonder what could it mean. I hope we have a Pro Met online to clarify that..

I believe when an eye get's smaller, the typhoon get's weaker...Notice the 5 knots decrease in sustained wind...It was originally at 135 but the JTWC decreased it to 130...Still....130 is VERY STRONG

[drdavisjr]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... W-list.txt

It just moved south .05 degrees lattitude, but could be a wobble..

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA just increased the maximum sustained winds of lupit to 195 kph....It's still far from the actual 130 knots(240 kph) that the JTWC has,,,,

Yup. I just watched the afternoon news and they said so. Although based on their model forecast, Lupit's future track would bring it to the extreme north of Luzon. I guess this would not bid good for those depending on PAGASA's forecasts. Especially if Lupit would follow a more WSW-track and take it for granted...

I honestly believe they will correct themselves IF this is indeed the case. I'm trying to remember the advise of not watching wobbles too much.

[oaba09]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2009/adt/text/22W-list.txt

It just moved south .05 degrees lattitude, but could be a wobble..

Might be a wobble...let's observe it further

[oaba09]

I think Lupit is starting to settle into a west movement...what do you guys think?

[JTE50]

The eye is getting much smaller. I wonder why? Is it getting weaker?

Yes, I also see that on the wundermap model. I wonder what could it mean. I hope we have a Pro Met online to clarify that..

I believe when an eye get's smaller, the typhoon get's weaker...Notice the 5 knots decrease in sustained wind...It was originally at 135 but the JTWC decreased it to 130...Still....130 is VERY STRONG

As the eye gets smaller the typhoon gets stronger - generally. Hurricane Wilma's eye was pinpoint in 2005 when the pressure dropped to a record 882 mbars - maybe even lower. Not sure what is going on with Lupit at the moment. Eyewall replacement cycle coming up? West side looks good. Maybe some dry air got sucked in. I'm looking at the WV loop and that looks like what happened. Check it out: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html

[oaba09]

As the eye gets smaller the typhoon gets stronger - generally. Hurricane Wilma's eye was pinpoint in 2005 when the pressure dropped to a record 882 mbars - maybe even lower. Not sure what is going on with Lupit at the moment. Eyewall replacement cycle coming up? West side looks good. Maybe some dry air got sucked in. I'm looking at the WV loop and that looks like what happened. Check it out: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html

Thank you for the explanation...Is there a chance for lupit to further intensify?

[HURAKAN]

Weakening

[drdavisjr]

It just started raining here at our house in Quezon City.

[P.K.]

For comparison I've checked out some of the other forecasts from 06Z. CMA are now at 65m/s [126kts] (910hPa), KMA 97kts (930hPa), PAGASA 54m/s [105kts] (938hPa), HKO 205km/h [111kts], CWB 51m/s [99kts] (925hPa).

WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 19.2N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 20.0N 128.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 210600UTC 18.9N 124.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 220600UTC 17.5N 120.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Typhoon10]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

Don't know exactly but it could be an EWRC episode.