Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[wxman57]

seems like it is developing a Katrina 1999

Except it moves it due west, not NW. As much as the GFS has been all over the place for the past week (or more), I'd take any solution with a grain of salt that far out.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would put this in the 5 to 10 percent range in the next 48 hours .and maybe 5o percent in the next 5 days , should that warant a code yellow? I dont know its kind of subjective.

Yes, it is subjective. There probably is a lower limit to the code yellow probability, but I don't know what it is. Would a 10% chance warrant yellow? 5%? 1%? 0.1%?

I would agree that the chances are not zero of this being classified as a TD within the next 48 hours. My estimate would be less than 5%, maybe 2%. Does that warrant a yellow, just a 2% chance?

I don't think a 2% should be a yellow. Then again, I think this is closer to a 5% of forming in the next 48 hours. I really don't think it would hurt though for the NHC to classify this as a yellow, even if it is a 2% chance, and specifically say that any development wont happen for a couple days and that this is just an an area to keep an eye on, something like that.

[AtlanticWind]

I would put this in the 5 to 10 percent range in the next 48 hours .and maybe 5o percent in the next 5 days , should that warant a code yellow? I dont know its kind of subjective.

Yes, it is subjective. There probably is a lower limit to the code yellow probability, but I don't know what it is. Would a 10% chance warrant yellow? 5%? 1%? 0.1%?

I would agree that the chances are not zero of this being classified as a TD within the next 48 hours. My estimate would be less than 5%, maybe 2%. Does that warrant a yellow, just a 2% chance?

Yes , That warrants a code light yellow

[Ivanhater]

Maybe the NHC should mention possibilities beyond 48 hours, nothing way out there but maybe within the week. May cause more problems though

[Ivanhater]

GFS 156



It seems the gfs is finally on board with the Euro developing a storm. The Euro has been consistent with the setup steering this north toward the GOM. We will see which one is right, but with the GFS flip flopping and the track record of the Euro, I'd bet on the Euro.

Though the 12z Euro could flip like it did yesterday and show nothing

[HURAKAN]

Taking into account the time of the year and computer models, maybe a yellow code is in order saying "slow development is possible over the next few days." I will be something to tell the general public, keep an eye on the Caribbean in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has a Hurricane

Very bullish now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

At 144 hours

[Ivanhater]

Movement NW from the Canadian. Props to the Euro for sniffing this out first. btw, does anyone have the link to the long range Canadian. Only person I have seen post it was Meso

[Macrocane]

Euro has now model support, the track is still uncertain but they are more than hinting development if it verifies then once again Euro will have again the merit of being the first model that saw that possibilty despite yesterday's back off.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe the NHC should mention possibilities beyond 48 hours, nothing way out there but maybe within the week. May cause more problems though

The few people that really care about a system this far out are already well aware of it, we dont need more colors, alerts, warnings, watches, special statements, etc especially for the general population in South Florida. The current arsenal of warnings and watches is way to complex for most to understand here and most other places.

[Sanibel]

Too broad - but what you would be looking for for formation:

[HURAKAN]

Not saying that another Wilma will form, but I remember that Wilma took a long time to develop and for most of the time it was a disturbance, it was a mess.

[blp]

12z nogaps has similar run to cmc but much weaker.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0&set=Core

[Evil Jeremy]

This system has the convection and has curvature. The shear just needs to die down. This could be a scary Halloween after all for someone with this system.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Blown Away]

I guess if we are hanging our hat on the few models that show development a Code Yellow is not warranted, because the models don't show anything within the next 48 hours. I still think this area should be Code Yellow.

If you think that this system should be "code yellow", then you've already calculated the probability of it developing within 48 hours. So, what do you estimate are the chances that this will be upgraded to a TD by noon Wednesday? (anyone else here may reply).

Not a trick question, just an honest inquiry. What is the 48hr probability of this becoming a TD?

Less than 30%.
IMO, we have some model support, persistent convection, warm waters, and the shear isn't to bad, Compared to what we have had so far this season I would say this area has a decent shot of becoming a TD, but likely not within 48 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

Canadian track brings back memories of Mitch

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_216_e.html
Hopefully the link works, but CMC takes it into the big bend area of FLA in 24o hrs.

[PTrackerLA]

That is from the 00z run.

[wxman57]

Interesting debate on the probability issue. I think that there should be some lower limit (not zero) of a code yellow. The idea of the code yellow should be to call attention to a feature in the tropics that has the potential to develop into a TC over the next day or two. One could probably argue that the chances of development for any tropical wave (next 48 hours) are not zero. They may be less than 1%, but not zero.

Perhaps code yellow should be 10% or 15% to 30% chance of development int he next 48hrs? That would separate a disturbance from the "noise" of systems not likely to develop at all, but with some tiny chance of development.

I do like the idea of a probability beyond 48 hours. The problem, of course, is how to quantify development chances at all. Sure, you can use TCFA criteria and estimate the chances of development in the next 24 hours or so. But to calculate a long-range probability of development, one has to use model projections of atmospheric conditions, adding considerable error to the calculation.

Back to the subject of this system, I don't expect anything to try to spin up until later this week, maybe Thursday. I do think that unless something changes, the NHC will go "Code Yellow" tomorrow on the region.