Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see any model runs showing any development in the Caribbean? If someone has todays runs. Please post.

[cycloneye]

I don't see any model runs showing any development in the Caribbean? If someone has todays runs. Please post.

The model runs are being posted at the Hurricane in Western Caribbean thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106873&start=0

[cycloneye]

The last hurrah of the 2009 season? Some models are showing some kind of development at the SW Caribbean and Bay of Campeche.ECMWF,GFS,CMC are showing different scenarios on timing and places for the supposed development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[wxman57]

I'm sure they're right THIS time. It's interesting that the GFS, EC and CMC all see the same low developing in the western Caribbean/BoC this coming weekend. One thing I do notice is that they're forecasting tremendous shear across the Gulf. On Sunday, for example, upper level winds over the developing low are projected to be in the 40-50 kt range by the GFS. These winds increase across the northern Gulf.

On a side note - my coworker informs me that no U.S. state except Florida has ever been hit by a hurricane in November.

[cycloneye]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 AM EST MON NOV 02 2009

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 06 2009 - 12Z MON NOV 09 2009

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A MOBILE/FLAT POSITIVE ANOMALY EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR 43N 100W COMBINED WITH A POLAR VORTEX OVER NUNAVUT
FAVORS TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS ANOMALY CENTER HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND THESE CHANGES ARE
PROBABLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAST EAST-TO-WEST PROGRESSION OF
SYSTEMS WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN HAVE LED TO MODERATE TO LARGE
CONTINUITY CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
ATLANTIC CANADA LATE THIS WEEK /WHICH WAS ADVERTISED BY ONE ECMWF
RUN THREE DAYS AGO/...AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOW
ANTICIPATED. UNTIL THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CAN
SETTLE DOWN AND CONVERGE...HAVE LITTLE IF ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXPECTED PATTERN FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF COAST...
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GAINING INCREASING SUPPORT AND SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD BE A UNIQUE NOVEMBER EVENT BOTH IN
AREA OF FORMATION AND POTENTIAL TRACK. STAY TUNED.

ROTH

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[cycloneye]

Hey,dont shoot me for posting this. The NAM shows almost a hurricane in Caribbean.

[jconsor]

The Expedition Hurricane hit North Carolina as a Category 1 on Nov 2, 1861.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ush ... 512008.txt

On a side note - my coworker informs me that no U.S. state except Florida has ever been hit by a hurricane in November.

[Ivanhater]

00z cmc longrange

[cycloneye]

I have been looking at the medium-range GFS for the past few days and it has been consistant showing what appears a tropical entity off Centralamerica.Agatha so early?

120 hours





144 hours

[Macrocane]

I have been watching that too, and the GFS has been consistent for the last 3 or 4 days, it would be an interesting system to watch, not sure if it will reach TS strength but it usrely looks like it will try to organize. Let's keep an eye on it.

[hurricanetrack]

Wouldn't that just be the cat's meow. The last remaining gasp from the dying El Nino. The weather has been totally out of control this winter, a named tropical cyclone in the SE Pacific would fit right in.

[Derek Ortt]

the thing in the CPAC is more typical of an el nino

[cycloneye]

ECMWF was upgraded today.It looks very interesting now with color.Also,the runs start at 0 hour instead from 72 hours.

See the upgrade at hyperlink below.

ECMWF

[Hurricaneman]

ECMWF was upgraded today.It looks very interesting now with color.Also,the runs start at 0 hour instead from 72 hours.

See the upgrade at hyperlink below.

ECMWF

heres hoping the euro model does better than it did with the last upgrade

[gatorcane]

GFS is trying to spin up some kind of Low from the tail end of a cold front in the Southern GOM. The GOM waters are still rather cool (except for the loop current) and the low will very likely be nontropical if it developed but an interesting Low here for the end of March nonetheless. If it verifies would bring alot of rain to Southern FL. ECMWF doesn't spin up anything:

NWS Miami discussion on this low:

BEYOND MONDAY... THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE GFS
SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVING IT ACROSS S FL
TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE GFS HAD NOT
INDICATED THIS FEATURE, BUT THE ECMWF STILL LAGS SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS S FL TUES AFTERNOON, SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH ISOLD POPS AND
NOT GO WITH SCT AS THE GFS INDICATES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

This is not another April fools joke folks.

Alex in mid April??? Yes,this is GFS looooooong range but it shows something forming in the NW Caribbean and southern GOM.





12z GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a wave of low pressure along a frontal boundry IMHO. Another 6-8 weeks and that may be something to keep an eye on.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't look all that tropical given how spread out it is

[cycloneye]

I should have looked at this graphic first.

[HURRICANELONNY]

4/15? WHY EVEN POST.