Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[wxman57]

Canadian track brings back memories of Mitch

Yeah, blocking high over the Gulf like the GFS, but a NW motion first, taking it right along the coast of Honduras then maybe a bit south of west and inland.

[Ivanhater]

I believe this is the 00z Canadian long range..Seems to be 2 camps on steering, with some models flip flopping. Will be interesting to see if the Euro flips to nothing or a blocking high in the gulf

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM Discussion by TPC:

"CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W PRODUCING CONVECTION NEAR
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA. SEE ABOVE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 18N82W 15N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW
CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLD FRONT. GENTLE BREEZE TRADEWINDS ARE JUST
S OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 77W-81W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N61W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW TO BE STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
WITH CONVECTION."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1728.shtml?

[wxman57]

That discussion suggests that the TPC is quite aware of the situation, but that they don't think that the chances of development within 48 hours are very high.

12Z Euro is about in (through 120 hrs now). I'll post a comparison 168hr map valid 12Z Monday of the Euro and GFS when it's in that far.

[hurricanetrack]

Slow and steady....

[Ivanhater]

Word is, 12z Euro still showing development, have not heard about steering yet

[tolakram]

RAMSDIS has a floater over it now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[deltadog03]

It looks like euro does have the system again. I can see the 1008mb ring start to move north on hour 120...**as mentioned above**

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 120 hours

[cycloneye]

12z Euro 120 hours

Ivan,how is the steering?

[Ivanhater]

Through 96 hours to 144 hours..it moves due north..then turn to the NW at 168 hours

[wxman57]

Ok, got the 12Z EC in. Here's a comparison 168hr prog for 12Z Monday. GFS vs. EC. Two completely different patterns to the north across the Gulf and the eastern U.S. GFS has a BIG ridge to the north, and thus shoves the storm west into Nicaragua. Euro has that same ridge over NW Texas with a trof to the north, taking the storm northward toward south Florida. Which one is right? Who knows? If I had to pick one, I'd be concerned that the ECMWF may have the better handle on things.

GFS:


Euro:

[Ivanhater]

Well nothing cleared up from yeterday. GFS vs, Euro. I'd bet on the Euro with its record this year

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

I know the models dont develop this until 4 or 5 days but I already see some circulation in the visable.

[Ivanhater]

Across South Florida as a hurricane..we are still in the long range, but the trend is not looking good

[PTrackerLA]

Read in another forum the EC takes into south Florida, any graphic for this yet?

[wxman57]

Thought I'd take a look at the GFS vs. EC 500mb pattern for next Monday (analyzed to 10 meter heights). Again, nothing similar. GFS has ridge blocking movement to the north. Euro has big trof to the west and ridge to the east with a clear shot northward to the FL Peninsula:

GFS:


Euro:

[cycloneye]

Here is the complete loop of the 12z ECMWF.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

Certainly juicy down there for things to get going..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If Euro pans out, it looks like Miami is on the dirty side of this. Naples may be just to the left of landfall.
Hopefully it gets to the other side of the coast quickly if it decides to develop, since a bunch of my friends are leaving on a cruise out of Tampa on Saturday to do the western carribean.