metenthusiast wrote:What does it mean? Is it bad or good?
Good, it's weakening
WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
ricmood wrote:Hoping it will be down to tropical storm by the time it hits land
At least the wind damage will be less but the rains could be heavy, I hope it doesn't but the possibility exists.
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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
I'll post more when I get home, but I can see it has missed the next forecast position to the north. i.e., it's stil going more northwest than forecast (it's north of 20N now) and has not made the turn yet. I wonder how the track forecast will change on the next model runs. It is more possible now that it may miss a direct hit on Luzon.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
2100z JTWC Warning=105kts
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.5N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TYPHOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD IN THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL EXERT A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD PUSH. DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS, TY 22W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A NARROW
SLOT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS. AFTER TAU
12, HIGH ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN TY 22W BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96. AS
THE STORM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN, HALTING THIS WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.5N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TYPHOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD IN THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL EXERT A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD PUSH. DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS, TY 22W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A NARROW
SLOT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS. AFTER TAU
12, HIGH ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN TY 22W BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96. AS
THE STORM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN, HALTING THIS WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
I still have trouble with this track, not least of all because the drawing of the forecast track keeps changing while the prognostic reasoning isn't changing. It's predicated on the fact that the STR will rebuild not just towards the west and NORTH from behind the typhoon, but also that the portion of it west and north of Lupit will stay strong. This would basically build a barrier around the cyclone with only a southwestern path open. But look at the latest water vapor loop. I have annotated it to show the basic steering winds and how they look right now. This storm is certainly approaching a critical point where there are a lot of uncertain factors that could undo this west-southwest movement. I think the most important problem is the assumption that the portion of the STR ahead of LUPIT will hold strong. Right now the Water Vapor loops show the subtropical jet moving towards the northeast not too far ahead of the storm, and I don't see any evidence that the ridge is strengthening northwest of the Philippines. If there is little ridging ahead of LUPIT, it may remain on a more westerly course and miss northern Luzon. Finally, today's 12Z GFS forecast for Thursday morning shows less building of the ridge ahead of the storm than it was in previous runs (CMC and NOGAPS show this too.) All three of those models are now indicating a looping (NOGAPS) or a northerly turn around Wednesday/Thursday as it passes near or over Luzon, rather than a continued west-southwest path. I have a feeling they are going to shift even more rightward as new runs come out. And don't foregt, LUPIT is still gaining latitude as we speak.
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ozonepete
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Probably quite generous. Weakening pretty fast, just like Rick is. I would guess about 90 kt.
(Don't underestimate it though - a Category 2 can still be extremely dangerous, Morakot was only a Cat 2 when it hit Taiwan)
Good point, cycloneye. But as far as the strength, I think it's restrengthening agiain. Some pretty cold cloud tops are forming again, and in the WV loop from my last post you can see the hint of an eye re-emerging and more importantly, the dry air to its west is dissapating. Conditions are improving, especially if it keeps moving and gets away from the upwelling cooler water it produced.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
OzonePeter, read your latest post. Are you saying the conditions are changing to favour a more Northerly track for Lupit towards HongKong and storm to retain its strength?
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ozonepete
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
Typhoon10 wrote:OzonePeter, read your latest post. Are you saying the conditions are changing to favour a more Northerly track for Lupit towards HongKong and storm to retain its strength?
I know you are looking for the possibility of a "Hong Kong hit" so you will probably like this forecast chart. It is the GFS forecast for next Tuesday morning your time. It has LUPIT coming ashore near Hong Kong. BUT BUT BUT, as I have said many times here, a forecast more than 3-5 days out is not worth very much. We will all have to watch and see what happens, and we won't have a good idea of the chances it will hit Hong Kong until this weekend, but yes, there is more of a chance now. A tiny chance, but more of a chance. And there are many other models that have a different outcome.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Look at the upper right image in this 4-panel chart. The tightly packed circles of equal pressure with the 1010 label underneath it represents typhoon LUPIT, or whatever is left of it.
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leanne_uk
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK
as always ozonepete, great work and very interesting points made. I think its showing signs of re strengthening too but i am an a novice at this and my knowledge is nothing more than basic. Conditions are becoming more favourable but its only going to become how apparent them changes are and how they will effect lupit over the next 8-12 hours and further beyond.I think the typhoon season this year has been incredibly interesting to monitor and have produced a few amazing systems but maybe ive paid it more attention due to the quiet atlantic season lol
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ozonepete
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- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re:
leanne_uk wrote::uarrow: as always ozonepete, great work and very interesting points made. I think its showing signs of re strengthening too but i am an a novice at this and my knowledge is nothing more than basic. Conditions are becoming more favourable but its only going to become how apparent them changes are and how they will effect lupit over the next 8-12 hours and further beyond.
I think the typhoon reason this year has been incredibly interesting to monitor and have produced a few amazing systems but maybe ive paid it more attention due to the quiet atlantic season lol
HAHA same here. I always start looking around the globe when the Atlantic has a dead season. And sure enough, there's plenty to see...
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ozonepete
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
BTW, as far as my opinions on LUPIT's strength and track, especially the track, I wanted to emphasize that this is late October now, for heaven's sake. The westerlies are digging further south all the time and it would be quite rare to see the sub-tropical ridge building from the Philippines over mainland China at this time of year. I know the barotropic models simply do not account for the change of season which brings mid-latitude cold/baroclinic dynamics and energy into the mix, but even our seasoned global models still don't really handle tropical/mid-latitude interactions well.
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
The JTWC REALLY has to be more careful, especially with a strong typhoon that has a lot of people nervous. Look at this excerpt from their latest 192100 prognostic reasoning. They really have to be more careful...
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS RACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS RACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
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ozonepete
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
STILL gaining latitude, however little. It will have to take a considerably strong southwest dive now to hit Luzon.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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oaba09
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
ozonepete wrote:The JTWC REALLY has to be more careful, especially with a strong typhoon that has a lot of people nervous. Look at this excerpt from their latest 192100 prognostic reasoning. They really have to be more careful...
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS RACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
That actually confused me the 1st time.................I only realized that it's a mistake after a couple times of reading it....
I think Lupit is starting to stabilize into a westward motion....what do you think?
Here's the link:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0
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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
oaba09 wrote:ozonepete wrote:The JTWC REALLY has to be more careful, especially with a strong typhoon that has a lot of people nervous. Look at this excerpt from their latest 192100 prognostic reasoning. They really have to be more careful...
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS RACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
That actually confused me the 1st time.................I only realized that it's a mistake after a couple times of reading it....
I think Lupit is starting to stabilize into a westward motion....what do you think?
Here's the link:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0
Weather Underground is OK, but they are not comparable to the NHC, JTWC or JMA. I don't think their forecasts are very original - just a rehash of the better forecasts we get from the aforementioned.
Also, I don't see the westward motion yet at all. I just don't see it. West-northwest yes, but not west.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
JMA 00 UTC Warning:
TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°05'(20.1°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)
TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°05'(20.1°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)
ozonepete wrote:oaba09 wrote:ozonepete wrote:The JTWC REALLY has to be more careful, especially with a strong typhoon that has a lot of people nervous. Look at this excerpt from their latest 192100 prognostic reasoning. They really have to be more careful...
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS RACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
That actually confused me the 1st time.................I only realized that it's a mistake after a couple times of reading it....
I think Lupit is starting to stabilize into a westward motion....what do you think?
Here's the link:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0
Weather Underground is OK, but they are not comparable to the NHC, JTWC or JMA. I don't think their forecasts are very original - just a rehash of the better forecasts we get from the aforementioned.
Also, I don't see the westward motion yet at all. I just don't see it. West-northwest yes, but not west.
well, I guess we just have to wait and pray a little more that it misses Luzon. But frankly, I don't want to keep my hopes up that much. More crazier things happened here in the Philippines and sometimes, the more you will or want the storm to miss you, the harder it hits you in the end.
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