Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[Blown Away]

Here is the complete loop of the 12z ECMWF.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

The EURO has this system recurving over SFL in response to a trough in 240 hours, if this system moves a little faster then it could be farther W and N before that trough moves in. JB was saying he thought this system would move a little faster than the models were predicting.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro has pushed back its progression by a couple of days. That is the thing with these types of setups with a lot of juice in the western Caribbean. Just where it consolidates and how long it takes will effect the track. The good thing, being this far out, is we have time to watch it

[CourierPR]

Here is the complete loop of the 12z ECMWF.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

The EURO has this system recurving over SFL in response to a trough in 240 hours, if this system moves a little faster then it could be farther W and N before that trough moves in. JB was saying he thought this system would move a little faster than the models were predicting.

Is JB offering any ideas on intensity?

[Blown Away]

Here is the complete loop of the 12z ECMWF.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

The EURO has this system recurving over SFL in response to a trough in 240 hours, if this system moves a little faster then it could be farther W and N before that trough moves in. JB was saying he thought this system would move a little faster than the models were predicting.

Is JB offering any ideas on intensity?

Implied there was enough ocean heat content to sustain a major hurricane, but nothing specific. He generally said this could be a big surprise for the Caribbean and SE US.

[wxman57]

The max potential intensity, based on heat content alone, would be a Cat 5 with sub 900mb central pressure. Of course, that's if everything else is very favorable for development. We're not even sure if anything will develop, yet. Too early to predict intensity.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[tropicana]

All that juice down there in the SW Caribbean has produced prolific rainfall on portions of the Cayman Islands.

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman Island (78384) has seen 166mm of rain in the 12 hours to 8am this morning ( over 6 inches) and an additional 15mm of rain in the 6hrs to 2pm ..a total of 181mm or over 7 inches.

The good news is that the Cayman Islands have been having a record dry year so this rainfall will be certainly welcome in the numbers department, but all that rain in such a short space of time is unfortunately lost to run off and creates flooding.

[Ivanhater]

Just some 12 z model solutions

Canadian



GFS



Euro

[wxman57]

Looks like it's the Canadian and GFS vs. the European. Canadian and GFS have a ridge over the southeast U.S. and Gulf, pushing any development westward into Central America. Euro has no ridge to the north, allowing for the Florida threat.

[tolakram]

based on this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I'm going to go with yellow at 8PM and NHC will fudge development chances a bit to justify the yellow, just in case the models don't have a handle on it. Things look good and shear has dropped a bit, though still very high near the supposed center.

Squeeze Play

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the shooting currents either would shoot it straight NE immediately, or would stall it out...

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis.

[lonelymike]

Any chance this mess makes it to the northern gulf coast? I would think it would be kind of late in the season if it does. 37 this morning in Destin

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Weather Outlook=Code Yellow

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[AtlanticWind]

Code Yellow

[leanne_uk]

got our code yellow on this not suprisingly tho think we all expected that. Even tho conditions are favourable i am not holding my breath for a good development into a cane. You never know and models are supporting it happening but how often has that happened so far this season.
Its all a wait and see situation

[wxman57]

got our code yellow on this not suprisingly tho think we all expected that. Even tho conditions are favourable i am not holding my breath for a good development into a cane. You never know and models are supporting it happening but how often has that happened so far this season.
Its all a wait and see situation

How would it be "good" if it developed into a hurricane in the Caribbean, where it would almost certainly hit land and kill people?

[AtlanticWind]

I would expect an invest sometime tuesday if the convection continues.

[Ivanhater]

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely some turning going on, should take up most of my free time at work this week .

[Derek Ortt]

and add a lot more work for me