Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[leanne_uk]

got our code yellow on this not suprisingly tho think we all expected that. Even tho conditions are favourable i am not holding my breath for a good development into a cane. You never know and models are supporting it happening but how often has that happened so far this season.
Its all a wait and see situation

How would it be "good" if it developed into a hurricane in the Caribbean, where it would almost certainly hit land and kill people?

I apologise using the term good in relation to a cane developing in an area where it could cause damage to anyones homes, business and lives. It was never intended in anyway to upset anyone nor cause offence and the fact it has been saw that way is like i said totally my fault for not wording my statement correctly. The development of systems, how and where they develop at any point in the year especially during the hurricane reason is what interests me and my wording was only based on watching what the system will do and watching development if any. I would never and have never wanted a system to develop and head towards land and people.
Again i do apologise for not wording my statement properly.

[Evil Jeremy]

and add a lot more work for me

Still though, its not as much work overall than in previous seasons lol.

[cycloneye]

This will be a slow step by step proccess.First step,getting model support from more than one model.Second,it got a code yellow.The third step is getting invest status,but when that may occur is not known at this point.

[Macrocane]

I apologise using the term good in relation to a cane developing in an area where it could cause damage to anyones homes, business and lives. It was never intended in anyway to upset anyone nor cause offence and the fact it has been saw that way is like i said totally my fault for not wording my statement correctly. The development of systems, how and where they develop at any point in the year especially during the hurricane reason is what interests me and my wording was only based on watching what the system will do and watching development if any. I would never and have never wanted a system to develop and head towards land and people.
Again i do apologise for not wording my statement properly.

Don't worry, I think some of us understood what you tried to say, but wxman57 gets always a little annoyed when people say that a hurricane looks good or that a hurricane is exciting, and I kind of agree with him because those words can be missundertood or hurt some people's sensitivity, so "interesting" is a better word to avoid confussions.

[MortisFL]

got our code yellow on this not suprisingly tho think we all expected that. Even tho conditions are favourable i am not holding my breath for a good development into a cane. You never know and models are supporting it happening but how often has that happened so far this season.
Its all a wait and see situation

How would it be "good" if it developed into a hurricane in the Caribbean, where it would almost certainly hit land and kill people?

He said "good development"...not that it would be good for a storm to hit land and kill people.

[Ivanhater]

8-10 Day Ensemble mean. I really don't see this being driven in to Central America, but who knows

[Blown Away]

I'm not seeing the "Low" down near 11.5N/82W, to me it seems there is a general cyclonic rotation around an area near 14N/82W, which is closer to the deeper convection. Is it just me?

[Nimbus]

It is so cold in Florida after the front went through that I was tempted to drop my tropics folder for the season but this does look interesting. There have been some nasty late October storms like Mitch in 1998. This convection is right at the tail end of the front so if it does cut off it might head into Mexico before having much time to develop.

[cycloneye]

This pass was made this evening at 6:55 PM EDT but it missed the SW Caribbean area.

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

If you look at the GFS vs. ECMWF this season as far as forecasting long-range syntopics out 7+ days, it does seem the ECMWF has a better track record. Seems the GFS has not seen big troughs in the long-range and has had a leftward bias if you ask me. Bill is a great example of GFS not seeing that trough over the Eastern CONUS in the long-range and had Bill heading west.....towards Florida. The ECMWF long before the GFS showed Bill recurving. In fact not one run of the ECMWF showed Bill heading west of 65W.

What's interesting is that the ECMWF for many runs now in a row, shows not only a tropical system but one that creeps slowly northward into an area of lower heights to the north. Wxman's charts clearly show just how different the GFS and ECMWF are with respect to the future of this area.

BTW, has anybody seen the 12Z UKMET? Looks like it sends this area into Central America and the EPAC. Right now, I think I'll bet against the ECMWF and go with the GFS/UKMET solution -- into Central America.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[Blown Away]

I think if this system deepens it will respond more to the trough that will sweep through next week, the ECMWF solution. If the system stays shallow and weak it will go W, GFS.

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the Sat loop, it seems to be strengthening at a faster rate than the models were indicating. Still think it hold off on developing till later though

[jinftl]

A NOAA graphic that is prone to be overlooked....they are pegging the likelihood of development in this region as the highest....by a wide margin....than it has been all season...and well above climatolgic norms for the date. And that graphic is showing the odds of development in the next 24 hours....and what we are seeing here is clearly beyond the 24 hour time frame. Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned a 60% chance of a named system in this region in the next week in his blog this morning.

I know that is not saying alot given this season, but no one can deny what the potential of a favorable environment....which is forecast with a sharp drop in shear in the nw caribbean by the end of the week/weekend.....can mean in this region this time of year. History is abundantly clear. And given the tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential) being higher in this region than it has been since at least 2006 in this region at this time of year.....i don't feel i am an alarmist by saying this area needs to be monitored. Should we panic? Without a depression or ts, that would be nuts.

As always, probabilty is against anything significant developing....but someone's going to have to watch out if things defy 'the odds'. Could the season end with a bang? Ida hope that is not the case.

Think this couldn't be a U.S. threat?

Read the lastest NWS Miami Discussion about what might be steering any system in 5 or 6 days:

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS BEEN DEEPENING
THIS TROUGH MORE AGGRESSIVELY.

Latest NOAA graphic once again increases the probability of development:

[CourierPR]

Local WSVN Met., Phil Ferro , just stated that strong upper level shear will keep the system in check. Comments anyone?

[jinftl]

Nothing against Phil....but if Bryan Norcross said that, it would carry much more weight in my mind (Channel 7 is the station that tethered Alina Ramos....the sexiest tv met in america per maxim magazine....to a tree during hurricane wilma). Clearly the odds at this point....at any point...are against a memorable storm developing. But if Phil is right, is that a function of him knowing his stuff better than some tropical weather mets...or more a function of even a broken clock being wrong twice a day?

Dr. Jeff Masters, at least as of earlier today, would disagree with Phil's shear outlook...the key to all of this, is that we are not talking imminent development....more in the 5-7 day timeframe.

The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1354

Local WSVN Met., Phil Ferro , just stated that strong upper level shear will keep the system in check. Comments anyone?

[cycloneye]

00z Surface Analysis by TAFB lowers the stationary low pressure to 1006 mbs.

[AdamFirst]

Local TV met here from NBC 5 (Steve Weagle) says that this has potential for development into this weekend...suggests it will be near Western Cuba at the time. I had no idea about it until now

[fci]

Local TV met here from NBC 5 (Steve Weagle) says that this has potential for development into this weekend...suggests it will be near Western Cuba at the time. I had no idea about it until now

As Local Mets go, he is the best one we have and not known, IMO; to be an alarmist

[Derek Ortt]

didn't see the 18Z GFS posted (and I am not surprised). It showed no development at all, only a broad low