ATL : Invest 93L

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910200637
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2009, DB, O, 2009102006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932009
AL, 93, 2009101906, , BEST, 0, 105N, 338W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009101912, , BEST, 0, 107N, 342W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009101918, , BEST, 0, 112N, 344W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009102000, , BEST, 0, 120N, 347W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009102006, , BEST, 0, 126N, 351W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

287
WHXX01 KWBC 200638
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0638 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20091020 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091020 0600 091020 1800 091021 0600 091021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 35.1W 13.3N 37.0W 14.1N 38.8W 14.9N 40.5W
BAMD 12.6N 35.1W 13.7N 35.4W 14.6N 35.3W 15.4N 34.7W
BAMM 12.6N 35.1W 13.3N 36.5W 14.2N 37.7W 15.1N 38.6W
LBAR 12.6N 35.1W 13.5N 35.4W 14.0N 36.1W 14.3N 36.9W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091022 0600 091023 0600 091024 0600 091025 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 41.8W 17.7N 43.5W 19.5N 45.3W 21.4N 47.7W
BAMD 16.7N 33.9W 20.2N 33.1W 23.1N 33.1W 24.9N 30.8W
BAMM 16.3N 39.4W 18.6N 40.0W 20.4N 41.3W 22.4N 42.3W
LBAR 14.8N 37.6W 18.0N 39.8W 22.3N 40.1W 27.0N 37.4W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 35.1W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 34.4W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 33.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL932009  10/20/09  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        39    49    47    51    55    64    57    34    24    23    27    32    38
SHEAR DIR        262   263   268   273   271   279   274   294   297   286   260   253   256     

I don't know how this made it to invest status. 64 knots, wow

[HURAKAN]

Track

[leanne_uk]

Invest, really. Wow I have to say I never saw that coming. Looked at Sat feeds and there is organisation going on but conditions are not forecast to be favourable over the next couple of days. As always tho something to keep an dye on. We may get an interesting fish to track but who knows.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Well,well,well 64 kt shear and is tagged.I thought that 93L was going to be tagged to the SW Caribbean area..

[HURAKAN]

Maybe we get another Nana. I'm just hoping for anything to form!!!

[HURAKAN]

Pretty sad!

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

They really must be bored. Is this system really invest worthy? Even the NHC are saying that conditions are not favorable. Whatever happened to investing at code orange?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY AND 700 MB STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICT CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED E OF THE WAVE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

They really must be bored. Is this system really invest worthy? Even the NHC are saying that conditions are not favorable. Whatever happened to investing at code orange?

Now you sound like me.

This system is being torn apart by shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it me, or is this no longer on NRL?

[srainhoutx]

Well,well,well 64 kt shear and is tagged.I thought that 93L was going to be tagged to the SW Caribbean area..

Me too. Perhaps it's just the nasty flu I have.

[HURAKAN]

Is it me, or is this no longer on NRL?

It has never appeared in NRL

[Blown Away]

j/k

[cycloneye]

Since the first model plots at 0600z,they haved not runned again.

[TheEuropean]

Here is a link to the first thread about this "system" in Talkin Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106886

I don't see anything to develop at this point and at this time.