WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

Is that an effect of the EWRC???

Yes, the inner center is the old one and it's collapsing. The big eye will take over and try to tighten for the typhoon to intensify

Interesting...so it is trying to re-intensify...

[Infdidoll]

Is that an effect of the EWRC???

Yes, the inner center is the old one and it's collapsing. The big eye will take over and try to tighten for the typhoon to intensify

I saw that...and was thinking EWRC, but I'm still too novice to trust my own judgment.

[drdavisjr]

I don't know a whole lot about this, but it sure looks to me that Taiwan should start preparing. Looking at the water vapor loops, the STR to the north is too weak to push Lupit down to the Philippines.

Like I say, I'm no expert, but this is how it appears.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Multi-agency track

[Infdidoll]

I don't know a whole lot about this, but it sure looks to me that Taiwan should start preparing. Looking at the water vapor loops, the STR to the north is too weak to push Lupit down to the Philippines.

Like I say, I'm no expert, but this is how it appears.

It's not too crazy a theory...You're not the only one thinking that way:

[drdavisjr]

It's not too crazy a theory...You're not the only one thinking that way:

If I'm not mistaken, those are current numerical models depicting a recurve after the wsw drop in lattitude. I'm guessing, and please note that I am a true noob at this; that this storm will continue lazily nw towards Taiwan. But I might be very well underestimating the ridge to the northwest over east China. I'd have to stick with JTWC and JMA unless proven otherwise...I'm just really hoping it misses the Philippines (and Taiwan too).

[oaba09]

Multi-agency track

Everything is still in agreement of a SW movement............The question is, why is lupit still noving NW?

[oaba09]

It's not too crazy a theory...You're not the only one thinking that way:

If I'm not mistaken, those are current numerical models depicting a recurve after the wsw drop in lattitude. I'm guessing, and please note that I am a true noob at this; that this storm will continue lazily nw towards Taiwan. But I might be very well underestimating the ridge to the northwest over east China. I'd have to stick with JTWC and JMA unless proven otherwise...I'm just really hoping it misses the Philippines (and Taiwan too).

most models are still indicating a SW movement................This is quite connfusing coz lupit is still currently moving NW...

[drdavisjr]

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

[oaba09]

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Here we go...I hope people are prepared this time...

[drdavisjr]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

[oaba09]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

The models were right after all.....Here we go.....I'm glad I don't live up north....

Just a question for anyone who knows? How much rain will metro manila experience?

[drdavisjr]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

The models were right after all.....Here we go.....I'm glad I don't live up north....

Just a question for anyone who knows? How much rain will metro manila experience?

[oaba09]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

The models were right after all.....Here we go.....I'm glad I don't live up north....

Just a question for anyone who knows? How much rain will metro manila experience?

From what I understand...the darker the shade of red, the harder the rainfall is...am I right?

[ricmood]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

I'm seeing west movement.
BTW, is Metro Manila already spared of a direct hit?

[oaba09]

It's raining here right now(Valenzuela, Metro Manila)....

[drdavisjr]

From what I understand...the darker the shade of red, the harder the rainfall is...am I right?

Yes, from this it looks like we might get between 75-100mm rain. But, it's important to note that the forecast track was a bit lower at the time this data was released.

[oaba09]

I guess I spoke too soon. It's starting to move down now.

I'm seeing west movement.
BTW, is Metro Manila already spared of a direct hit?

Pretty much...yeah...Worst case scenario is that we'll be at signal #1...

[drdavisjr]

Hey oaba09, is it raining over in Valenzuela right now?