WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[cycloneye]

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

That's cool, but this storm has been full of surprises. I think I'll stay tuned for further developments

Dont focus only on the line of the tracks.The Typhoon is big in size and even if the eye passes to the north of Luzon,you will have bad weather associated with it.

[oaba09]

12 UTC JMA Warning

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

Actually, it will hit the Batanes group of Islands w/c is still Philippines Territory.......It seems like it won't make landfall at main Island Luzon but it will still hit the extreme northern islands of luzon...

[drdavisjr]

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

That's cool, but this storm has been full of surprises. I think I'll stay tuned for further developments

Dont focus only on the line of the tracks.The Typhoon is big in size and even if the eye passes to the north of Luzon,you will have bad weather associated with it.

Thanks! I know, our street is flooded right now from associated bad weather...

[oaba09]

What time is the next JTWC warning?

[ricmood]

Thanks! I know, our street is flooded right now from associated bad weather...

Does that happen even before Ondoy?

[drdavisjr]

Thanks! I know, our street is flooded right now from associated bad weather...

Does that happen even before Ondoy?

Ondoy was definitely the worst. But yes, it gets high here. But never so fast as it does now.

[ricmood]

It's drizzling here in Laguna

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=85kts

No change in the JTWC track.

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.6N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 128.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

1500z JTWC Warning=85kts

No change in the JTWC track.

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.6N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 128.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

This still indicates a direct hit on main island Luzon.........is JTWC usually more accurate then JMA?

[drdavisjr]

Off topic and humorous - snowing in Quezon City http://weather.msn.com/local.aspx?wealo ... ity%2c+PHL

[oaba09]

It seems like Lupit is starting to move SW

[ricmood]

Is that the new eye?

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[ricmood]

Down to 155kph

[metenthusiast]

Down to 155kph

But still a large system..

[ozonepete]

Is that the new eye?

No. It's just a patch of dry air that got entrained into the core.

[Weather_boi]

ECMWF is anticipating the worst case scenario.. a SW dive across Northern & Central Luzon..

[Weather_boi]

Do I see another area of low pressure spinning to the east of Agrihan in the latest WV loop?

[oaba09]

ECMWF is anticipating the worst case scenario.. a SW dive across Northern & Central Luzon..

Well, we gotta prepare for all scenarios...

[ozonepete]

I'm catching up on the thread. Just a couple of things.

Remember what cycloneye said. It's a large storm and even if it passes north of you you will get plenty of rain and wind. So you have to take it seriously and pay attention to your local weather service as it gets close. It will be impossible to determine what your local effects will be til it gets close. You already know that even a tropical storm can produce deadly flooding; the outer, weaker edges of a strong hurricane can do the same.

The rain and wind you are experiencing now are not related to the typhoon. It's just heavy showers and thunderstorms that are embedded in the trade winds. I think if you look carefully at the satellite loops and your local radar loops you can see the difference.

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.