WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.

Thanks for the timely advise ozonepete.

We were on the left side of Ketsana (Ondoy), too.

[metenthusiast]

I'm catching up on the thread. Just a couple of things.

Remember what cycloneye said. It's a large storm and even if it passes north of you you will get plenty of rain and wind. So you have to take it seriously and pay attention to your local weather service as it gets close. It will be impossible to determine what your local effects will be til it gets close. You already know that even a tropical storm can produce deadly flooding; the outer, weaker edges of a strong hurricane can do the same.

The rain and wind you are experiencing now are not related to the typhoon. It's just heavy showers and thunderstorms that are embedded in the trade winds. I think if you look carefully at the satellite loops and your local radar loops you can see the difference.

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.

That's useful info. Thanks!

[oaba09]

I'm catching up on the thread. Just a couple of things.

Remember what cycloneye said. It's a large storm and even if it passes north of you you will get plenty of rain and wind. So you have to take it seriously and pay attention to your local weather service as it gets close. It will be impossible to determine what your local effects will be til it gets close. You already know that even a tropical storm can produce deadly flooding; the outer, weaker edges of a strong hurricane can do the same.

The rain and wind you are experiencing now are not related to the typhoon. It's just heavy showers and thunderstorms that are embedded in the trade winds. I think if you look carefully at the satellite loops and your local radar loops you can see the difference.

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.

Actually, we're more worried w/ the rains rather than the wind right now

[oaba09]

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.

Thanks for the timely advise ozonepete.

We were on the left side of Ketsana (Ondoy), too.

Oh yes...that name(ondoy) still gives me the creeps...

[metenthusiast]

I'm catching up on the thread. Just a couple of things.

Remember what cycloneye said. It's a large storm and even if it passes north of you you will get plenty of rain and wind. So you have to take it seriously and pay attention to your local weather service as it gets close. It will be impossible to determine what your local effects will be til it gets close. You already know that even a tropical storm can produce deadly flooding; the outer, weaker edges of a strong hurricane can do the same.

The rain and wind you are experiencing now are not related to the typhoon. It's just heavy showers and thunderstorms that are embedded in the trade winds. I think if you look carefully at the satellite loops and your local radar loops you can see the difference.

In case you didn't know, the left side of the storm relative to its forward motion is the weaker side. While LUPIT is moving westward, the south side is weaker and the north side stronger. Thus you in Metro Manila should be on the weak side, which is better. BUT ONCE AGAIN, remember that each storm is unique, and the weak side can produce a lot of damage too.

That's quite right. With lands already saturated from the past rains and water channels choked at some points, I guess another heavy downpour that would last for hours would spell bad.
Actually, we're more worried w/ the rains rather than the wind right now

[metenthusiast]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

[drdavisjr]

Actually, we're more worried w/ the rains rather than the wind right now

Actually, we don't want 150 kph winds either...think of the widespread power failure. It would put me out of work for weeks

[ricmood]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

Link please...

[metenthusiast]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

Link please...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009102000!!!relative_archive_date/

[drdavisjr]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

Link please...

That's interesting, ecmwf has moved landfall much lower than earlier today and a higher exit point. Are they expecting the ridge to dig in hard at the last minute?

[drdavisjr]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

Link please...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009102000!!!relative_archive_date/

That link is way outdated. It was relative 192 hrs before Wednesday.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 009102000!!

[oaba09]

I'm gonna sleep now......Still gotta wake up early for work tomorrow....Thank you for all the updates...See ya guys tomorrow!

[metenthusiast]

I saw the ecmwf model that weather boi mentioned. I'm wondering how accurate their model is? I think I heard before that their forecasts are fairly accurate but I'm not entirely sure whether to believe this or not.

Does anybody here knows? Thanks guys!

Link please...

That's interesting, ecmwf has moved landfall much lower than earlier today and a higher exit point. Are they expecting the ridge to dig in hard at the last minute?

It's a bit alarming, isn't it? For us in Metro Manila, at any rate. But one thing I noticed is that the position of Lupit today on their model was much lower than the actual position of the typhoon. It seems that it didn't reached past beyond the 20 deg lat, whereas the current pos. of Lupit is at 20.5?

I'm a little confused by this model from ecmwf. (But hey, I'm no expert and it's just my personal opinion based on observation)

[drdavisjr]

I'm gonna sleep now......Still gotta wake up early for work tomorrow....Thank you for all the updates...See ya guys tomorrow!

Enjoy! Maybe tomorrow you'll wake up and Lupit will have stayed above 20 degrees lat.

[drdavisjr]

I'm a little confused by this model from ecmwf. (But hey, I'm no expert and it's just my personal opinion based on observation)

Try this link metenthusiast, it's 72 hrs from today.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9102000!!/

[metenthusiast]

That link is way outdated. It was relative 192 hrs before Wednesday.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 009102000!!

Oh... okay. Thanks! Got me worried there...

[ozonepete]

From the latest prognostic reasoning:
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THREE MODELS, IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. THE WBAR AND TCLAPS SOLUTIONS DEPICT IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ANS GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE REMAINING.

So I see WBAR and TCLAPS have gone back to a recurve. But the best line is "GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE". heheh This is getting to be one tough forecast.

[metenthusiast]

I'm gonna sleep now......Still gotta wake up early for work tomorrow....Thank you for all the updates...See ya guys tomorrow!

Enjoy! Maybe tomorrow you'll wake up and Lupit will have stayed above 20 degrees lat.

...or maybe turn into the northeast and mix with the ridge into oblivion... (I wish)

[metenthusiast]

From the latest prognostic reasoning:
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THREE MODELS, IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. THE WBAR AND TCLAPS SOLUTIONS DEPICT IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ANS GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE REMAINING.

So I see WBAR and TCLAPS have gone back to a recurve. But the best line is "GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE". heheh This is getting to be one tough forecast.

And tough it's going to be. I'm beginning to wonder that Lupit might do something entirely surprising in the coming hours, hard to predict its movements as it is...

[ozonepete]

Obviously the JMA is no longer satisfied with the solution of the last few days.