WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

[Weather_boi]

According to the T2K website, ECMWF is the most reliable model so far this season but I would rather not believe this completely. It would still be best to look at the blend of all forecast models.

NOTE: ECWMF is also predicting a decrease in Lupit's speed as it exits Western Luzon. Folks affected by Parma should better prepare by now.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009050700!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009102000!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009102000!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009102000!!/

Looks like Lupit's circulation is beginning to shrink a little bit...

[drdavisjr]

Thanks everyone for being patient with us during this very stressful time. I figure I have at least 1 more rather uneventful day (weather-wise) before Lupit does what it does, so it's time for me to call it a night.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

We may see a big eye opening later today, it seems that it's undergoing an EWRC.

[ozonepete]

We may see a big eye opening later today, it seems that it's undergoing an EWRC.

Agreed, although there's one caveat. It looks like a pretty substantial slice of dry air is getting ingested on its western flank again. If that makes it into the core, the eye will collapse and it will weaken again.

[ozonepete]

Sorry, once again, that I can't post images during the day.

Still looks to me like it's going west, and at a decent clip. And it's also been passing north of the last few forecast points, i.e. it's been moving to the right of the forecast path for a while now. That's why the JMA has changed their track and now have the center passing north of the Luzon mainland. Still waiting for JTWC to catch up...

BTW, Derek's forecast from two days ago (which I agreed with) that Taiwan might be impacted is looking more and more possible.

[cycloneye]

JMA 18 UTC Warning:

Dramatic change in the track.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

[oaba09]

JMA 18 UTC Warning:

Dramatic change in the track.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

It might spare us after all

[cycloneye]

JTWC is late on releasing the 2100z warning.Maybe they will change the track as JMA did?

[ozonepete]

JTWC is late on releasing the 2100z warning.Maybe they will change the track as JMA did?

Thanks for the update on the JMA track, cycloneye. Wow did they change horses! I just saw the 21Z from JTWC, and though they didn't change the track much, look at the new remarks:

REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 127.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE STORM CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND A 201709Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES THAT A NEW LARGE EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED FOLLOWING A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS, DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THREE OF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS, JGSM, NOGAPS, AND GFDN, HAVE ABRUPTLY SHIFTED FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET MODEL, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

Wow! Now three more models have shifted to the recurve. I could see this coming, because all of the steering level wind charts and flow evidence from water vapor has shown no big ridge building to the northwest, and LUPIT has gained much more latitude than they forecast for the last few days.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest track from JTWC.

[ozonepete]

Looks like another slow-down and then a recurve. The JMA track looks much more realistic.

[StormingB81]

What a difference when you wake up. I am guessing that we in Okinawa should prepare. I didn't think it would recurve that much reading about all the weather around here.

[oaba09]

Stll moving SW...

What's the general consensus regarding the track...I know JMA had a major change but what does majority of the models say?

[HURAKAN]

Multi-agency track

[oaba09]

PAGASA

[oaba09]

Multi-agency track

I see that majority still indicates a direct hit on main island luzon...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Not really. If you go draw a line in the middle of the models, the eye of Lupit barely brushes the coast of Luzon. Still could do considerable damage though.

[oaba09]

:uarrow: Not really. If you go draw a line in the middle of the models, the eye of Lupit barely brushes the coast of Luzon. Still could do considerable damage though.

We're actually more worried w/ the rain....

The HK model seems to be the worst case scenario....