WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

my understanding is that is air force weather agency mm5 model...

That's really troubling....wow

[ozonepete]

Latest models. Look at the Air Force Weather model

What the hell??? Is that even possible...Any thoughts from the experts here???

Yes, it all makes some sense. I think it's starting a counterclockwise loop. The tracks on that chart are probably an attempt to resolve weak steering currents for now followed by a shortwave trough from the west which will cause a rapid recurve to the north. Basically it looks like it's going to stall or loop very soon.

This storm has been really tough.

[oaba09]

Latest models. Look at the Air Force Weather model

What the hell??? Is that even possible...Any thoughts from the experts here???

Yes, it all makes some sense. I think it's starting a counterclockwise loop. The tracks on that chart are probably an attempt to resolve weak steering currents for now followed by a shortwave trough from the west which will cause a rapid recurve to the north. Basically it looks like it's going to stall or loop very soon.

This storm has been really tough.

If the airforce model happens, central luzon is in trouble.;..That's waaay south of what people are expecting...

[drdavisjr]

Yes, it all makes some sense. I think it's starting a counterclockwise loop. The tracks on that chart are probably an attempt to resolve weak steering currents for now followed by a shortwave trough from the west which will cause a rapid recurve to the north. Basically it looks like it's going to stall or loop very soon.

This storm has been really tough.

So, ozonepete, you don't think it will make it down as far as - let's say - the lower part of north Luzon??

[oaba09]

Yes, it all makes some sense. I think it's starting a counterclockwise loop. The tracks on that chart are probably an attempt to resolve weak steering currents for now followed by a shortwave trough from the west which will cause a rapid recurve to the north. Basically it looks like it's going to stall or loop very soon.

This storm has been really tough.

So, ozonepete, you don't think it will make it down as far as - let's say - the lower part of north Luzon??

It's still currently south of where it should be.....This is quite troubling...

[drdavisjr]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

[oaba09]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

Thank God we have internet...I feel sad for the people who's solely relying on PAGASA's forecast.....This storm has been VERY unpredictable...

[ozonepete]

I just started looking and it's hard to tell what's going on yet, but I really think it is moving southeast now because it's starting a loop. That is actually good for you for the time being because all of the heavy rain will stay offshore while it does the loop. It also could just stall now and move erratically, which could also keep most of the rain off the mainland for now.

[JTE50]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

I agree.

Late night here in the Philippines. Time to call it a day. I put some pics up of this trip so far:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm

[oaba09]

I just started looking and it's hard to tell what's going on yet, but I really think it is moving southeast now because it's starting a loop. That is actually good for you for the time being because all of the heavy rain will stay offshore while it does the loop. It also could just stall now and move erratically, which could also keep most of the rain off the mainland for now.

It seems to still be moving SW.....Then again, I'm no expert....

[drdavisjr]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

Thank God we have internet...I feel sad for the people who's solely relying on PAGASA's forecast.....This storm has been VERY unpredictable...

If this storm DID go crazy and drop dowm here, do you think the governnment would evacuate here? Seems like a logistical nightmare.

[oaba09]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

I agree.

Late night here in the Philippines. Time to call it a day. I put some pics up of this trip so far:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm

Is the weather starting to get bad there??

[drdavisjr]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

I agree.

Late night here in the Philippines. Time to call it a day. I put some pics up of this trip so far:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm

Nice! Thanks for sharing them

[oaba09]

Now I know why Lupit is such a fitting name for this storm. The cruelty may or may not lie in it's destructiveness, but in it's uncertainty. Very stressing watching this storm; but better than no info at all.

Thank God we have internet...I feel sad for the people who's solely relying on PAGASA's forecast.....This storm has been VERY unpredictable...

If this storm DID go crazy and drop dowm here, do you think the governnment would evacuate here? Seems like a logistical nightmare.

I can't evem think of the devastation if that happens...If that happens, people who don't understand will unjustly blame PAGASA for sure...

[drdavisjr]

I can't evem think of the devastation if that happens...If that happens, people who don't understand will unjustly blame PAGASA for sure...

Yes, in this case it would be very unjust. But IF and ONLY IF it corrects itself at the first sign of danger.

[oaba09]

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.3N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.2N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 125.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird

[drdavisjr]

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

[oaba09]

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

What does that mean?

[drdavisjr]

It is closer to sw than wsw