ATL : INVEST 94L

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmm, I think a circulation is spinning up in the EPAC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html

[lrak]

What an odd season, when the system emerges in the Pacific could it be brought back into the GOM by the big cold front?

Maybe near Tehuantepec or is it heading West?

[wxman57]

What an odd season, when the system emerges in the Pacific could it be brought back into the GOM by the big cold front?

You'll be hit by Rick tomorrow, Karl. Still pretty dry down there? We finally got some rain in my area.

[Blown Away]

IMO, there is a weak circulation rotating around 12.5N/83W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[lrak]

What an odd season, when the system emerges in the Pacific could it be brought back into the GOM by the big cold front?

You'll be hit by Rick tomorrow, Karl. Still pretty dry down there? We finally got some rain in my area.

Yes sir...Woot, man we still need RAIN. Thanks for thinking about us down here!

[MGC]

My eyes still see some rotation off the Nic coast at about the same location as yesterday. I think it is premature to write 94L off......MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

My eyes still see some rotation off the Nic coast at about the same location as yesterday. I think it is premature to write 94L off......MGC

I agree. As long as there is convection in that general area, it should be watched. Still though, the chances for Caribbean development are lowering as the energy organizes in the Epac. Still though, rule 1 of the tropics, anything can happen.

[Bocadude85]

Maybe the energy will drift back into the W. Carib.. a lot of the models were not showing development until the friday/saturday time frame, so perhaps the energy currently in the EPAC will cross back into the W Caribbean and that will be what triggers development.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection now weakening on both sides of the disturbance:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

Circulation is getting better-defined in the East Pac, though.

[Evil Jeremy]

Circulation is getting better-defined in the East Pac, though.

True. I would think that area gets flagged a yellow or even an orange at 2 PM, though the entire disturbance needs to be watched on both sides of the land.

[Sanibel]

Tried to tell you folks this was EPAC-headed yesterday. Nobody listens to ole Sanibel. Nobody gives him credit.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any idea why there have been no model runs since 12z yesterday? GFS rolling in now, lets see what it shows.

[tpr1967]

Both the Nam and the GFS show some development latter this week and weekend. It comes from the mid and upper low over the nothern bahammas and fl presently moves south to near Jamaica. This allows for lift in that area and llc development to the se of the mid upper low. The whole area then moves nw in the longer range Gfs and nothward into east gulf. Area gets absorbed by mid upper trough and coldfront in about a week. Yes wxman this would not be purely tropical development more along the lines of hybrid. Just my thoughts what do you all thing.

[StarmanHDB]

Yellow egged, but only on the Caribbean coast. No advisories on the EPAC coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface analysis has two lows.one in the EPAC and another in the SW Caribbean off the Costa Rican coast.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[Blown Away]

Anbody seeing a weak broad low near 13N/82W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[AtlanticWind]

Anbody seeing a weak broad low near 13N/82W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

I see it, dont know if it is at the surface,but I think this is the feature we will be watching.

[Evil Jeremy]

Sorry, I don't see it. What I do see is a disturbance in the Caribbean that is dieing out and a Epac disturbance strengthening.

[wxman57]

Anbody seeing a weak broad low near 13N/82W?
http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/736/94l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Nothing there at the surface, and that little circular feature, probably an outflow boundary from a dissipating storm, is gone now.

I notice that the 12Z GFS is much less bullish on any development. Has a weak low moving to the NW Caribbean Sea by Saturday and then dissipating along a cold front Sunday. I really think that this will be an East Pac storm with nothing in the Caribbean now.