WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#761 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:21 am

oaba09 wrote:No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird


There is definitely some strange motion now. Even with the wobbles, I detect a southerly motion. Unless it stalls or loops soon, north and central Philippines are going to get an awful lot of rain, sorry to say. Also, an eye is forming again.
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#762 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:23 am

JTE50 wrote:
Late night here in the Philippines. Time to call it a day. I put some pics up of this trip so far:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm


Great pics, Jim. Thanks. Stay safe.
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#763 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:24 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird


There is definitely some strange motion now. Even with the wobbles, I detect a southerly motion. Unless it stalls or loops soon, north and central Philippines are going to get an awful lot of rain, sorry to say. Also, an eye is forming again.


Yes, I saw that eye...This typhoon is giving forecasters headaches...
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re:

#764 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:25 am

drdavisjr wrote:It is closer to sw than wsw


Uh oh....we might be in trouble...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

#765 Postby drdavisjr » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:26 am

Getting stronger... Dvorak CI# 3.7 up from 3.5
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

#766 Postby drdavisjr » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:31 am

2009OCT21 125700 19.49N 125.52E
2009OCT21 133000 19.49N 124.75E
2009OCT21 135700 19.43N 125.39E
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

Re:

#767 Postby drdavisjr » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:32 am

drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT21 125700 19.49N 125.52E
2009OCT21 133000 19.49N 124.75E
2009OCT21 135700 19.43N 125.39E - shifted east a bit
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re:

#768 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:34 am

drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT21 125700 19.49N 125.52E
2009OCT21 133000 19.49N 124.75E
2009OCT21 135700 19.43N 125.39E


That's definitely SW motion
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:
Contact metenthusiast

Re: Re:

#769 Postby metenthusiast » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:35 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird


There is definitely some strange motion now. Even with the wobbles, I detect a southerly motion. Unless it stalls or loops soon, north and central Philippines are going to get an awful lot of rain, sorry to say. Also, an eye is forming again.


Yes, it's definitely south and seems gaining strength.. this is bad..
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#770 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:35 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#771 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:38 am

oaba09 wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS


What does that mean?


That's the degrees on a circle/compass. 0 degrees is north, 90 degrees is east, 180 degrees south and 270 degrees west. So 245 is west-southwest.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

Re: Re:

#772 Postby drdavisjr » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:38 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird


There is definitely some strange motion now. Even with the wobbles, I detect a southerly motion. Unless it stalls or loops soon, north and central Philippines are going to get an awful lot of rain, sorry to say. Also, an eye is forming again.


Yeah, ozonepete, that little weak ridge to the west just isn't giving way...
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#773 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:42 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS


What does that mean?


That's the degrees on a circle/compass. 0 degrees is north, 90 degrees is east, 180 degrees south and 270 degrees west. So 245 is west-southwest.


thank you! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

#774 Postby drdavisjr » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:45 am

"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#775 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:47 am

drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)


That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re:

#776 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:47 am

drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)


As I said, this typhoon is giving forecasters headaches
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:
Contact metenthusiast

Re:

#777 Postby metenthusiast » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:48 am

drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)


As much as he said before that Parma (Pepeng) wouldn't do damage... :roll:
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#778 Postby oaba09 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:48 am

ozonepete wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)


That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.


That's PAGASA for you
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#779 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:50 am

drdavisjr wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:No significant change w/ JTWC's forecast...weird


There is definitely some strange motion now. Even with the wobbles, I detect a southerly motion. Unless it stalls or loops soon, north and central Philippines are going to get an awful lot of rain, sorry to say. Also, an eye is forming again.


Yeah, ozonepete, that little weak ridge to the west just isn't giving way...


I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
Last edited by ozonepete on Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:
Contact metenthusiast

Re: Re:

#780 Postby metenthusiast » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:50 am

oaba09 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)


That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.


That's PAGASA for you


Right! :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests