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ozonepete wrote:I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
ozonepete wrote:drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)
That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.
drdavisjr wrote:ozonepete wrote:drdavisjr wrote:"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)
That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.
Very irresponsible. We just had guests in the house a few minutes ago. I asked them if they were ready for the storm. They said, "nah, it's not going to even rain here."
That's what happens when a city of 12 million people have a very loudmouth weather bureau chief make stupid comments like that. So, if this storm comes down, people will be relaxed already.
ozonepete wrote:I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
drdavisjr wrote:ozonepete wrote:I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
That's scary stuff...
metenthusiast wrote:ozonepete wrote:I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
What are the chances of that ridge to the north rebuilding?
oaba09 wrote:Going to sleep now....Good night guys!
ozonepete wrote:metenthusiast wrote:ozonepete wrote:I'm hoping that that ridge stays strong enough to the WEST that it blocks LUPIT from going on further west. It may be just strong enough that LUPIT will stall or loop now. What you don't want is for the ridge to build NORTH of LUPIT. Then it will be blocked on three sides and will just sit over the Philippines for days like Parma.
What are the chances of that ridge to the north rebuilding?
Actually pretty low. Most of the global models don't build it up. The problem right now is that the steering winds are strong from the north just west of the Philippines and strong from the south on the east side. They are calm over the Philippines. LUPIT, having been embedded in an easterly flow, is getting nearer to your island, and will soon enter the zone of calmer steering winds. If it still has enough westward momentum, the northerly winds on the west side of the island will catch it, and they will drag it southwestward over the country. If it stalls out now and drifts a little eastward, the southerly winds will catch it and pull it northward away from the island. That latter case is what you would hope for of course.
And I mentioned before that it could bounce around in a tight circle (stall) between the two sterring currents and that would be really bad, unless it can stall just east of the island and keep most of its rains offshore.
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