WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[ozonepete]

Hello from Heart of Europe!

I am new at this forum which I have fortuitously found a few weeks ago. Many thanks to admin and all experienced members for sharing your knowledge and patient explanation - simply the best work, I appreciate!

Although I live in typhoonless area, I really know what does it mean to be scared of every raindrop fallen down. In 1997 and 2002, here in my country (and neighbours) were heavy floods, the worst ever, took a lot of lives, let a lot of people homeless, damaged a lot of...

Being not met expert but only weather observer (my hobby is atmospheric optics - halos, rainbows etc.) and enthusiastic novice in tropical storms, I doubt I can be helpful for now - wish I could!

I hold my fingers crossed and pray for Lupit´s weakening, recurving, dissipating or any other what can lead to ... to... happy ends.

Take care of you and stay safe and O.K. !!!

Cordially from me and my friends, Nika

Hi Nika,
Glad you like the site and I hope you (and all of us) learn something. LUPIT is teaching us how difficult tropical cyclone forecasting is.

[ozonepete]

hey thanks you guys for all the input! i've been hitting refresh on this forum like crazy for the whole day! very interesting stuff! many thanks!

Glad you like it! Hang out anytime. LUPIT's final strange moves are about to unfold...

[metenthusiast]

My gosh, if this storm drops much further south; then moves west-southwest, we in Manila might be in BIG trouble.

Hope somebody would tell how high the chances of that happening..

[metenthusiast]

Hello from Heart of Europe!

I am new at this forum which I have fortuitously found a few weeks ago. Many thanks to admin and all experienced members for sharing your knowledge and patient explanation - simply the best work, I appreciate!

Although I live in typhoonless area, I really know what does it mean to be scared of every raindrop fallen down. In 1997 and 2002, here in my country (and neighbours) were heavy floods, the worst ever, took a lot of lives, let a lot of people homeless, damaged a lot of...

Being not met expert but only weather observer (my hobby is atmospheric optics - halos, rainbows etc.) and enthusiastic novice in tropical storms, I doubt I can be helpful for now - wish I could!

I hold my fingers crossed and pray for Lupit´s weakening, recurving, dissipating or any other what can lead to ... to... happy ends.

Take care of you and stay safe and O.K. !!!

Cordially from me and my friends, Nika

Hi Nika,
Glad you like the site and I hope you (and all of us) learn something. LUPIT is teaching us how difficult tropical cyclone forecasting is.

Yup. And quite interesting too! I should have taken up meteorology as a career...

[ozonepete]

My gosh, if this storm drops much further south; then moves west-southwest, we in Manila might be in BIG trouble.

Still too early to know, but I still think it has stalled out and/or is starting a loop. You can definitely see some southeastward motion in the mid-level cloud deck (yellows/oranges on infrared satellite image loop.) It may be only temporary, but if not, LUPIT could do a loop and then recurve to the northeast.

[metenthusiast]

My gosh, if this storm drops much further south; then moves west-southwest, we in Manila might be in BIG trouble.

Still too early to know, but I still think it has stalled out and/or is starting a loop. You can definitely see some southeastward motion in the mid-level cloud deck (yellows/blues on infrared satellite image loop.) It may be only temporary, but if not, LUPIT could do a loop and then recurve to the northeast.

That seems to be the case and it also seems that this system is a bit south of the forecast track. I hope what you're saying is the one that happens because if Lupit continues to lose latitude then decides to turn west, we're in for a big surprise...

[drdavisjr]

sorry, it is over vietnam i mean

By lpa you mean low pressure area? No effect. It is caught up in weak steering currents as well.

Yes, low pressure area. Thanks!

[drdavisjr]

My gosh, if this storm drops much further south; then moves west-southwest, we in Manila might be in BIG trouble.

Still too early to know, but I still think it has stalled out and/or is starting a loop. You can definitely see some southeastward motion in the mid-level cloud deck (yellows/oranges on infrared satellite image loop.) It may be only temporary, but if not, LUPIT could do a loop and then recurve to the northeast.

Wow, I REALLY hope so.

[ozonepete]

That seems to be the case and it also seems that this system is a bit south of the forecast track. I hope what you're saying is the one that happens because if Lupit continues to lose latitude then decides to turn west, we're in for a big surprise...

Yes, that's a really bad scenario and unfortunately we can't count it out yet. It must be really nerve-wracking for you guys to keep waiting and waiting...

[drdavisjr]

That seems to be the case and it also seems that this system is a bit south of the forecast track. I hope what you're saying is the one that happens because if Lupit continues to lose latitude then decides to turn west, we're in for a big surprise...

Yes, that's a really bad scenario and unfortunately we can't count it out yet. It must be really nerve-wracking for you guys to keep waiting and waiting...

Lupit = Cruel (Tagalog)

[metenthusiast]

That seems to be the case and it also seems that this system is a bit south of the forecast track. I hope what you're saying is the one that happens because if Lupit continues to lose latitude then decides to turn west, we're in for a big surprise...

Yes, that's a really bad scenario and unfortunately we can't count it out yet. It must be really nerve-wracking for you guys to keep waiting and waiting...

Yes. Tedious anticipation, as I put it before. It's like with Parma, forecasts were erratic and in the end, it did what nobody expected -- it hovered and made 3 landfalls over North Luzon.

[metenthusiast]

I am watching the satellite loop on wundermap from wunderground. It seems to me that Lupit is way south of their forecast track. Should it turn west now, I think it must do it on tight angle, otherwise it would hit land much lower than forecasted.

(But hey, I'm no expert and I'm just stating my observations..)

[drdavisjr]

Yes, that's a really bad scenario and unfortunately we can't count it out yet. It must be really nerve-wracking for you guys to keep waiting and waiting...

Yes, and that's why it makes me so angry that PAGASA is telling people here (Manila) they have nothing to worry about.

[metenthusiast]

Yes, that's a really bad scenario and unfortunately we can't count it out yet. It must be really nerve-wracking for you guys to keep waiting and waiting...

Yes, and that's why it makes me so angry that PAGASA is telling people here (Manila) they have nothing to worry about.

PAGASA = Hope (English)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[metenthusiast]

Latest

Is that the eye? the big gap of blue in the center?

[cebuboy]

"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said. -- Nilo is director of PAGASA (three hours ago he said this)

That's foolish to say when the track is so uncertain.

Very irresponsible. We just had guests in the house a few minutes ago. I asked them if they were ready for the storm. They said, "nah, it's not going to even rain here."

That's what happens when a city of 12 million people have a very loudmouth weather bureau chief make stupid comments like that. So, if this storm comes down, people will be relaxed already.

This is what I have observed ever since. I still remember when Category 5 Typhoon Mike (with winds at 300kph) passes Cebu in the November 1990 , PAGASA, radio and the people in the cebu were look relaxed and unprepared, they said that typhoon might deflect path. I still even go to school on that day, so its not suspended (I'm 4th grade in that time) even though when Mike passes Cebu in the evening. So scary, I pray these people are much prepared now there are so many Filipinos gets killed by Typhoons.

[ozonepete]

Latest

Is that the eye? the big gap of blue in the center?

Yes. Often you can see it on the microwave satellites when it's obscured by high clouds on the infrared or visible images.

[Nika]

Metenthusiast: Congrats to your new career!

Ozonepete: Yeah, Lupit is Lupit is Lupit... is meteothriller!
I have attentively read your recent theory (stall x recurving to NE), now looking at sat pics and GFS. Hard to say, real puzzle..

[cycloneye]

JMA 18 UTC Warning.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 21 October 2009
<Analyses at 21/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°05'(19.1°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E121°55'(121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)