Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.
Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's
Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
CaptinCrunch wrote:Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.
Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's
Don't forget our DFW Halloween Analog, Captin! If it's cold on Halloween in your neck of the woods, that is often a forerunner of what the winter ahead may hold in store.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 92
- Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:56 pm
Re: Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
The latest run of the Ensembles for late next week:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f192.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f192.html
0 likes
- ntxweatherwatcher
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:55 pm
- Location: Bedford, TX DFW
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
And so it begins ... here is a snippet from the Amarillo NWSFO afternoon forecast discussion:
SOMETHING BREWING ON THE HORIZON...
LATEST GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
THAT POINT...BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSISTENCY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SOLUTIONS. AS THE MODELS STAND
RIGHT NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE SNOWFALL HEADING TO THE PANHANDLES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SINCE THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...DECIDED AGAINST HITTING THE SNOW TOO
HARD. IN FACT...GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
EVENT...SO JUST LEFT LIQUID RAIN IN FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST
SHOT FOR SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.
BUT...GIVEN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLING WELL BELOW 540
DAMS...AND SUB 0 850MB TEMPS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE AIRMASS APPEARS PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL ONLY OFFER THE TEASER AND
START TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP TYPE AS THE MODELS IRON OUT THE
DETAILS.
A snippet from NWSFO New Braunfels from this afternoon:
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO BE THE STRONGEST FRONT YET THIS SEASON WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NEAR HALLOWEEN, ALTHOUGH WE SHALL SEE. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES.
And NWSFO Midland/Odessa:
BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST...GFS IS HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST NEAR
HALLOWEEN...W/THE DGEX AND ECMWF CONSIDERABLY
WARMER.
.... and I now think it is time for me to start the official Texas winter weather thread for 2009-2010!!
SOMETHING BREWING ON THE HORIZON...
LATEST GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
THAT POINT...BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSISTENCY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SOLUTIONS. AS THE MODELS STAND
RIGHT NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE SNOWFALL HEADING TO THE PANHANDLES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SINCE THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...DECIDED AGAINST HITTING THE SNOW TOO
HARD. IN FACT...GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
EVENT...SO JUST LEFT LIQUID RAIN IN FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST
SHOT FOR SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.
BUT...GIVEN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLING WELL BELOW 540
DAMS...AND SUB 0 850MB TEMPS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE AIRMASS APPEARS PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL ONLY OFFER THE TEASER AND
START TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP TYPE AS THE MODELS IRON OUT THE
DETAILS.
A snippet from NWSFO New Braunfels from this afternoon:
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO BE THE STRONGEST FRONT YET THIS SEASON WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NEAR HALLOWEEN, ALTHOUGH WE SHALL SEE. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES.
And NWSFO Midland/Odessa:
BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST...GFS IS HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST NEAR
HALLOWEEN...W/THE DGEX AND ECMWF CONSIDERABLY
WARMER.
.... and I now think it is time for me to start the official Texas winter weather thread for 2009-2010!!
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
Portastorm wrote:And so it begins ... here is a snippet from the Amarillo NWSFO afternoon forecast discussion:
SOMETHING BREWING ON THE HORIZON...
LATEST GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
THAT POINT...BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSISTENCY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SOLUTIONS. AS THE MODELS STAND
RIGHT NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE SNOWFALL HEADING TO THE PANHANDLES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SINCE THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...DECIDED AGAINST HITTING THE SNOW TOO
HARD. IN FACT...GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
EVENT...SO JUST LEFT LIQUID RAIN IN FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST
SHOT FOR SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.
BUT...GIVEN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLING WELL BELOW 540
DAMS...AND SUB 0 850MB TEMPS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE AIRMASS APPEARS PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL ONLY OFFER THE TEASER AND
START TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP TYPE AS THE MODELS IRON OUT THE
DETAILS.
A snippet from NWSFO New Braunfels from this afternoon:
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO BE THE STRONGEST FRONT YET THIS SEASON WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NEAR HALLOWEEN, ALTHOUGH WE SHALL SEE. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES.
And NWSFO Midland/Odessa:
BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST...GFS IS HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST NEAR
HALLOWEEN...W/THE DGEX AND ECMWF CONSIDERABLY
WARMER.
.... and I now think it is time for me to start the official Texas winter weather thread for 2009-2010!!
Oh no Portastorm. It does look that way.
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10
Portastorm wrote:CaptinCrunch wrote:Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.
Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's
Don't forget our DFW Halloween Analog, Captin! If it's cold on Halloween in your neck of the woods, that is often a forerunner of what the winter ahead may hold in store.
I will have my Winter forecast posted sometime the first week of November, but yes my Halloween analog has been dead on for the past 7 years. The only thing that may change for Halloween would be the lows, I went upper 40's on the safe side, but I might have to lower it to the lower 40's buy then.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests