ATL : Invest 93L

[HURAKAN]

Shear doing its work

[fci]

Maybe there is an "invest quota" to meet???

[wxman57]

Is it me, or is this no longer on NRL?

It has never appeared in NRL

NHC just ran more model guidance on it. SHIP takes it from 20 kts at 00hrs to 18kts at 12hrs to 0kts after 12 hrs. Never seen anything like this (as an invest)

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20091020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091020 1200 091021 0000 091021 1200 091022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 36.3W 13.8N 38.3W 14.5N 40.2W 15.5N 41.9W
BAMD 13.1N 36.3W 14.3N 36.4W 15.4N 35.7W 16.6N 34.6W
BAMM 13.1N 36.3W 13.8N 37.8W 14.6N 39.0W 15.6N 40.0W
LBAR 13.1N 36.3W 14.1N 36.7W 14.8N 37.6W 15.3N 38.3W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS

[HURAKAN]

WHXX01 KWBC 201557
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1557 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20091020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091020 1200 091021 0000 091021 1200 091022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 36.3W 13.8N 38.3W 14.5N 40.2W 15.5N 41.9W
BAMD 13.1N 36.3W 14.3N 36.4W 15.4N 35.7W 16.6N 34.6W
BAMM 13.1N 36.3W 13.8N 37.8W 14.6N 39.0W 15.6N 40.0W
LBAR 13.1N 36.3W 14.1N 36.7W 14.8N 37.6W 15.3N 38.3W
SHIP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091022 1200 091023 1200 091024 1200 091025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 42.9W 17.9N 44.5W 19.4N 47.1W 21.0N 50.3W
BAMD 18.1N 33.5W 21.3N 32.5W 23.9N 32.0W 25.3N 29.4W
BAMM 16.8N 40.5W 18.5N 41.1W 19.8N 42.8W 21.2N 44.8W
LBAR 16.0N 38.5W 19.6N 40.0W 23.4N 39.7W 27.2N 37.8W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 36.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 34.7W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 34.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

For those that wanted to see 93L in NRL

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[CrazyC83]

Waste of an invest IMO. Even in the best of years, Cape Verde storms in late October are rare. 94L has a better chance of becoming stronger than Wilma than this becoming a tropical depression IMO.

[wxman57]

Yep, there is a naked swirl there - in 50-60 kts of shear. Development chances are <30%, so I agree with NHC. Probably closer to .01% than 30%, though. But I guess they saw the rotation and had nothing better to do than to run a few models on it. No harm done.

[HURAKAN]

At least it has a circulation, in the WPAC it seems almost every cloud gets an invest status

[CrazyC83]

64 kt = a hurricane of shear...

[cycloneye]

No mention of this system at the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.It means the invest will be deactivated.

[lonelymike]

Guess the boys at the NHC got tired of downloading Facebook and wanted to look at something. This has got to be one of the most pathetic invests in history.

[HURAKAN]

burst

[cycloneye]

I dont know why they made this a invest but it has been deactivated.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910212208
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 932009.ren