WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

I would like to thank everyone in this forum for being very patient with me. Being that I am not a Filipino, these storms really rattle me. I'm from Oklahoma where we get tornados, but luckily we live in a valley (McAlester) and have never (in my lifetime) been directly hit.

My first experience with a TC was Milenyo (Xangsane) and we lost power for a few hours, but that was it and it was gone fast. Ondoy was CRAZY rain that scared me into monitoring these storms closely...

Thanks everyone.

[ozonepete]

Infdidoll wrote:
We had a lot of rainfall, here, last night. Wow...so this may not look good for us then? Anyone have any guesses on how much or IF this storm would strengthen when it starts making its way back North? I'm wondering what we could expect on Okinawa.

I added: Though I would still watch it til it's northeast of you of course. But outside of at the most a brush of rain and wind, it looks good for you right now.

[ozonepete]

I would like to thank everyone in this forum for being very patient with me. Being that I am not a Filipino, these storms really rattle me. I'm from Oklahoma where we get tornados, but luckily we live in a valley (McAlester) and have never (in my lifetime) been directly hit.

My first experience with a TC was Milenyo (Xangsane) and we lost power for a few hours, but that was it and it was gone fast. Ondoy was CRAZY rain that scared me into monitoring these storms closely...

Thanks everyone.

You're welcome. And thank you.

[Infdidoll]

We had a lot of rainfall, here, last night. Wow...so this may not look good for us then? Anyone have any guesses on how much or IF this storm would strengthen when it starts making its way back North? I'm wondering what we could expect on Okinawa.

Most of the models now move it pretty sharply northeast out to sea. You look in the clear for now.

Thank you, Pete! I hope you're right...Until then, following this thread religiously and keeping up with what's going on. I saw that JTWC finally joined the party showing a turn...that's good news for Luzon. The bad news seems like most of the precipitation has been on the back end of this. Even if it turns, Luzon might still get some heavy rainfall.

[drdavisjr]

I would like to thank everyone in this forum for being very patient with me. Being that I am not a Filipino, these storms really rattle me. I'm from Oklahoma where we get tornados, but luckily we live in a valley (McAlester) and have never (in my lifetime) been directly hit.

My first experience with a TC was Milenyo (Xangsane) and we lost power for a few hours, but that was it and it was gone fast. Ondoy was CRAZY rain that scared me into monitoring these storms closely...

Thanks everyone.

You're welcome. And thank you.

Your welcome, too. So, everytime a new invest pops up here in typhoon alley, I'll be here again bugging you guys

[Infdidoll]

I would like to thank everyone in this forum for being very patient with me. Being that I am not a Filipino, these storms really rattle me. I'm from Oklahoma where we get tornados, but luckily we live in a valley (McAlester) and have never (in my lifetime) been directly hit.

My first experience with a TC was Milenyo (Xangsane) and we lost power for a few hours, but that was it and it was gone fast. Ondoy was CRAZY rain that scared me into monitoring these storms closely...

Thanks everyone.

Hey, I'm an Ohio girl (with a Tulsa, Sooner-fan husband)...and have only been living on Okinawa since July. I grew up fearful of tornadoes, but I always said typhoons and hurricanes wouldn't scare me, being that you have advance warning with them. I have since changed my mind. Now, I'm positively fascinated with them...and a little scared, too. You're not alone...I completely understand the fascination and fear.

So funny, in the past six months, I have gotten the part of Melor we saw on camera...and partial formations of tornadoes throughout western Oklahoma/Texas panhandle. I'm starting to feel like an unintentional storm chaser.

[ozonepete]

I would like to thank everyone in this forum for being very patient with me. Being that I am not a Filipino, these storms really rattle me. I'm from Oklahoma where we get tornados, but luckily we live in a valley (McAlester) and have never (in my lifetime) been directly hit.

My first experience with a TC was Milenyo (Xangsane) and we lost power for a few hours, but that was it and it was gone fast. Ondoy was CRAZY rain that scared me into monitoring these storms closely...

Thanks everyone.

Hey, I'm an Ohio girl (with a Tulsa, Sooner-fan husband)...and have only been living on Okinawa since July. I grew up fearful of tornadoes, but I always said typhoons and hurricanes wouldn't scare me, being that you have advance warning with them. I have since changed my mind. Now, I'm positively fascinated with them...and a little scared, too. You're not alone...I completely understand the fascination and fear.

So funny, in the past six months, I have gotten the part of Melor we saw on camera...and partial formations of tornadoes throughout western Oklahoma/Texas panhandle. I'm starting to feel like an unintentional storm chaser.

Yay!

[ozonepete]

I've gotta call it a night now, but remember everybody that it isn't over yet. Keep watching until it makes the turn. The steering winds are still very weak, so it still could drift SW before it turns and cause a lot of very heavy rain over the Philippines.

[oaba09]

I've gotta call it a night now, but remember everybody that it isn't over yet. Keep watching until it makes the turn. The steering winds are still very weak, so it still could drift SW before it turns and cause a lot of very heavy rain over the Philippines.

Thank you for all the info!!!

[drdavisjr]

I've gotta call it a night now, but remember everybody that it isn't over yet. Keep watching until it makes the turn. The steering winds are still very weak, so it still could drift SW before it turns and cause a lot of very heavy rain over the Philippines.

Thanks ozonepete!

[drdavisjr]

Infidoll wrote: I completely understand the fascination and fear.

My comment: Yes, fascination and fear is so right!

[StormingB81]

Ive seen the Path near Okinawa changed like 5 times in the last 2 days. I say forget watching the path just watch the storm you can tell better where its going

[Typhoon10]

JWTC now has it as slow moving, lingering, moving to just north of Luzon in a weeks time! Is it going to be same as Parma where is just sits there dumping loads of rain?

If thats the case do have any idea's which direction it will head in a weeks time or will it just dissapate and lose strength?

[oaba09]

It seems to still be moving WSW very slowly

[drdavisjr]

JWTC now has it as slow moving, lingering, moving to just north of Luzon in a weeks time! Is it going to be same as Parma where is just sits there dumping loads of rain?

If thats the case do have any idea's which direction it will head in a weeks time or will it just dissapate and lose strength?

Very scary idea indeed...a degree or so south and west would include Central Luzon in the "loads of rain" area.

[WindRunner]

JWTC now has it as slow moving, lingering, moving to just north of Luzon in a weeks time! Is it going to be same as Parma where is just sits there dumping loads of rain?

If thats the case do have any idea's which direction it will head in a weeks time or will it just dissapate and lose strength?

Most likely this will not be the case. Numerous computer models over the past day or so have showed the storm slowing and stalling in the near term, while it is still a fair distance away from Luzon, and then proceeding to make a sharp turn off to the NW in advance of a digging mid-latitude system, hence sparing Luzon from the rain directly associated with the cyclone. While it is certainly still a possibility (as forecasts have been unusually poor with this storm), I don't think the rainfall threat with Lupit will be nearly as bad as what we saw with Parma.

The JTWC forecast will be slow to reflect this change in thinking, though, due to the fact that it is such a significant change from the previous thinking. As you have noticed and mentioned, the track is becoming slower and turning north...but it may take some time before they feel confident enough about the forecast change to make the full jump to a northerly track. At this point, just keep watching as the forecasts continue to come out, that will be the only way to know for sure. Lupit has certainly taken some unexpected turns already in its life, I wouldn't be surprised if it still has one more trick up its sleeve...

[drdavisjr]

2009OCT22 013000 18.91 -124.74
2009OCT22 015700 18.86 -124.71
2009OCT22 023000 18.85 -124.68
2009OCT22 025700 18.84 -124.66
2009OCT22 033000 18.83 -124.63
2009OCT22 035700 18.82 -124.61

[drdavisjr]

TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.

[metenthusiast]

2009OCT22 013000 18.91 -124.74
2009OCT22 015700 18.86 -124.71
2009OCT22 023000 18.85 -124.68
2009OCT22 025700 18.84 -124.66
2009OCT22 033000 18.83 -124.63
2009OCT22 035700 18.82 -124.61

still seems to be moving WSW or SW, but very slow...

[drdavisjr]

2009OCT22 013000 18.91 -124.74
2009OCT22 015700 18.86 -124.71
2009OCT22 023000 18.85 -124.68
2009OCT22 025700 18.84 -124.66
2009OCT22 033000 18.83 -124.63
2009OCT22 035700 18.82 -124.61

still seems to be moving WSW or SW, but very slow...

Stay tuned to the heart-stopping conclusion...what a roller coaster ride!!!