ATL : INVEST 94L

[Evil Jeremy]

Lower level convergence increasing in the Caribbean, and convection is popping in that area. Meanwhile, the epac part of the disturbance is fading out again, just like yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

This is like a roller coaster. One moment it looks like the Pacific is winning, the other it looks like the Caribbean is winning. Lets see what happens.

[Blown Away]

The ingredients are there: Area of low pressure, persistent convection, shear is not to bad, there is low level convergence, and warm waters. I think the low may be moving a little ENE from the coast, so maybe this low will have a better chance moving away from land and the low in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Another ingredient,favorable MJO.

[Ivanhater]

Surprised no one showed the 12z CMC

[cycloneye]

12z CMC animation.Bullish once again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z GFS trys to form something in Western Caribbean and moves it into the GOM but is very weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Blown Away]

The timing makes better sense to me I just could not see a system sitting down there for 10+ days like some of the previous models were showing. I believe the low is finally on the move drifting towards the ENE.

[Ivanhater]

12z Ukmet, develops a closed low in the gulf somewhat, which is interesting from this conservative model. Models still sniffing this out down there, with the Canadian the strongest

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Low level convergence has increased in the area.

[Sanibel]

The remnant front jacked-up vertically and plunged all the way down to 94L and is inhibiting it. Crazy.

[wxman57]

Surprised no one showed the 12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp20.png

GFS shows something similar, though it doesn't depict a closed low. Basically, the two models appear to be showing some moisture moving out of the Caribbean along a cold front in at least a moderate shear environment. That does look likely, but the system wouldn't likely be a TC.

[cycloneye]

The 18z surface analysis,shows no changes.

[boca]

The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[tolakram]

Pretty colors....

[Nimbus]

The sunset shots on the visible satellite looked like the convection had been sheared east of the center. If that is the case we should see either a new center form under the convection or a fresh burst of convection further west.

[CourierPR]

The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.

Actually, the low is stationary off the coast of Nicaragua, as stated by the NHC. If you look carefully at the satellite loop you can see it. Don't focus on the mass of convection east of the low.

[gatorcane]

The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.

Actually, the low is stationary off the coast of Nicaragua, as stated by the NHC. If you look carefully at the satellite loop you can see it. Don't focus on the mass of convection east of the low.

Exactly, well said. Still development chances continue to dwindle it would seem.