WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1041 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 1:39 am

I think since it is moving so slow we will need a couple of hours of radar loops to see where this thing wants to go. I think most of our chairs have the edge worn out on them..lol

#1042 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 1:59 am

Seems quasi stationary to me....I have not seen any significant movement the past couple of hours...

#1043 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:01 am

Looking at JMA It looks like it goes a little north a little south a little west this things still is playing games

#1044 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:30 am

StormingB81 wrote:Looking at JMA It looks like it goes a little north a little south a little west this things still is playing games

Right now, I don't really trust JMA...Their model have been all over the place...

drdavisjr · #1045 Postby **drdavisjr** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:41 am

Hello everyone. Crazy storm, huh?

I think from the water vapor loops that Lupit will be on it's way north now. I see a poleward channel to the north and that latest satellite loops are showing a reaction to that.

Is anyone else seeing this?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#1046 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:47 am

drdavisjr wrote:Hello everyone. Crazy storm, huh?

I think from the water vapor loops that Lupit will be on it's way north now. I see a poleward channel to the north and that latest satellite loops are showing a reaction to that.

Is anyone else seeing this?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It still looks quasistationary but yes, there seems to be a northwards channel opening up....

drdavisjr · #1047 Postby **drdavisjr** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:05 am

Yeah, it's so hard to determine the center of the storm.

#1048 Postby **theavocado** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:05 am

theavocado wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Direction still looks to be a west drift, and I don't see any recurve happening yet. This has got to be ingesting some serious dry air pretty soon. But luckily the worst convection remains on the east side of it and remains offshore.

Makes you wonder what JTWC saw that no one else did. They still haven't fully bit off on the recurve...just 5 days in the Luzon Strait...

I may have spoke too soon. I wonder if this track will pan out, but it looks like they think the advancing shortwave trough might finally kick this thing out. Will have to wait for the text product.

ricmood · #1049 Postby **ricmood** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:33 am

Off Topic:

What's the news regarding the new LPA developing near Guam?

#1050 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:38 am

ricmood wrote:Off Topic:

What's the news regarding the new LPA developing near Guam?

Based on the latest JTWC advisory, the chance of development w/in the next 24 hours is still poor...

drdavisjr · #1051 Postby **drdavisjr** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:57 am

Speaking of off topic...when is the appropriate time to start a new thread in active storms? Once a Formation Alert is issued?

JTE50 · #1052 Postby **JTE50** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:16 am

Conditions have improved here in Aparri during the day. The sun even came out a few times. I'm packing it up and flying out to Manila tomorrow. Had a great time here in Aparri. The locals were just great! The was probably the best outcome you could wish for after they had a supertyphoon forecast to come this way.

Here is a shot of the sun out and all the kids happy in Aparri. That's your truly in the back.

#1053 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:22 am

Looks a lot better than we were expecting to see at this point in time!! Hopefully Lupit just heads out to sea!! Thanks for your reports from Aparri.

#1054 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:24 am

Great work jim!

It looks like lupit is starting to head north...

drdavisjr · #1055 Postby **drdavisjr** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:44 am

One question...

Things are looking good now that Lupit is starting to head north. What about the remnants of Invest 93W to the west and southwest of the Philippines. Will they also follow the same track as Lupit?

DESTRUCTION5 · #1056 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:12 am

Wow the kid in red watches too much American tv...LMAO

#1057 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:23 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Wow the kid in red watches too much American tv...LMAO

Wow...I missed that one :lol:

.......

#1058 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:25 am

Lupit is definitely moving NE now..

JTE50 · #1059 Postby **JTE50** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:32 am

Just pulled up the WV sat loop from the Guam NWSO page to show a crew from Taiwan Lupit weakening and humm, looks like there is something over around 160 degrees trying to spin up??? Or my eyes playing tricks on me?? Well, that's another thread I guess . . .

#1060 Postby **oaba09** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:01 am

JTE50 wrote:Just pulled up the WV sat loop from the Guam NWSO page to show a crew from Taiwan Lupit weakening and humm, looks like there is something over around 160 degrees trying to spin up??? Or my eyes playing tricks on me?? Well, that's another thread I guess . . .

We're actually watching a build up near guam......

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