WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[Infdidoll]

Jim, what an adorable picture! Even the little guy in the red shirt! Too funny.

Pouring rain and thunderstorms up here. I guess we have a nasty week in the forecast ahead. So how are you guys feeling down in the Philippines with disaster averted and sunshine on the horizon?

[drdavisjr]

Looks like maybe even Batanes was spared. The heavy rains look like they are staying to the east of the islands.

[drdavisjr]

Jim, what an adorable picture! Even the little guy in the red shirt! Too funny.

Pouring rain and thunderstorms up here. I guess we have a nasty week in the forecast ahead. So how are you guys feeling down in the Philippines with disaster averted and sunshine on the horizon?

Relieved and grateful...

[HURAKAN]

Disorganized

[ozonepete]

So the JTWC finally gave in. Well they had no choice at this point. I just couldn't understand why they would go against almost all of the guidance. Anyway, I still think they are really good forecasters, and for sure this was one of the most difficult and challenging storms to forecast that I've seen in a long while. LUPIT also reminds us that the models still have the most trouble with stationary storms.

I'm really glad I got to know you guys out there during this storm and most of all I'm really happy that you were spared from Lupit. There's probably not too much left in Lupit as it goes out to sea (looks just awful now), but I'll keep watching.

[ozonepete]

Disorganized

A mess. Shows what dry air does to tropical cyclones.

[metenthusiast]

Just pulled up the WV sat loop from the Guam NWSO page to show a crew from Taiwan Lupit weakening and humm, looks like there is something over around 160 degrees trying to spin up??? Or my eyes playing tricks on me?? Well, that's another thread I guess . . .

We're actually watching a build up near guam......

I think it has its own thread now, invest 95W if I'm not mistaken. I first heard it when drdavisjr posted that image from typhoon2000. I got interested in it since it was forming near Guam and if I understand this correct it would probably track NW if it ever develops into a storm.

Is that right?

[oaba09]

Just pulled up the WV sat loop from the Guam NWSO page to show a crew from Taiwan Lupit weakening and humm, looks like there is something over around 160 degrees trying to spin up??? Or my eyes playing tricks on me?? Well, that's another thread I guess . . .

We're actually watching a build up near guam......

I think it has its own thread now, invest 95W if I'm not mistaken. I first heard it when drdavisjr posted that image from typhoon2000. I got interested in it since it was forming near Guam and if I understand this correct it would probably track NW if it ever develops into a storm.

Is that right?

Let's post on the other thread

[oaba09]

So the JTWC finally gave in. Well they had no choice at this point. I just couldn't understand why they would go against almost all of the guidance. Anyway, I still think they are really good forecasters, and for sure this was one of the most difficult and challenging storms to forecast that I've seen in a long while. LUPIT also reminds us that the models still have the most trouble with stationary storms.

I'm really glad I got to know you guys out there during this storm and most of all I'm really happy that you were spared from Lupit. There's probably not too much left in Lupit as it goes out to sea (looks just awful now), but I'll keep watching.

Thank you pete for all the info and knowledge you shared w/ us during the onslought(or lack thereof) of lupit....We learned a lot from you and the other "veterans" here

[metenthusiast]

So the JTWC finally gave in. Well they had no choice at this point. I just couldn't understand why they would go against almost all of the guidance. Anyway, I still think they are really good forecasters, and for sure this was one of the most difficult and challenging storms to forecast that I've seen in a long while. LUPIT also reminds us that the models still have the most trouble with stationary storms.

I'm really glad I got to know you guys out there during this storm and most of all I'm really happy that you were spared from Lupit. There's probably not too much left in Lupit as it goes out to sea (looks just awful now), but I'll keep watching.

Thanks ozonepete! Same here and let me tell you that it's been wonderful just listening to you guys discuss convection, mid-latitude trough, and stuff (though most of them I'll admit I still don't know the meaning). And we're happy here that things turn out the way they did, Lupit missing the Luzon and sparing a country that's already on its knees.

[drdavisjr]

So the JTWC finally gave in. Well they had no choice at this point. I just couldn't understand why they would go against almost all of the guidance. Anyway, I still think they are really good forecasters, and for sure this was one of the most difficult and challenging storms to forecast that I've seen in a long while. LUPIT also reminds us that the models still have the most trouble with stationary storms.

I'm really glad I got to know you guys out there during this storm and most of all I'm really happy that you were spared from Lupit. There's probably not too much left in Lupit as it goes out to sea (looks just awful now), but I'll keep watching.

Thank you pete for all the info and knowledge you shared w/ us during the onslought(or lack thereof) of lupit....We learned a lot from you and the other "veterans" here

My exact sentiments...THANKS!!!

[cycloneye]

JMA latest track.

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=55kts

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.2N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 123.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
NNNN

[I-wall]

Wow the kid in red watches too much American tv...LMAO

Seriously. LOL.

[WindRunner]

I find it rather sad that interest in the storm has gone down now that it has turned to the northeast. While certainly this means less impact for the Philippines, and that's wonderful, it means that the NW Pacific islands could be getting some effects in the coming week or so, and more importantly this storm will be having drastic impacts on the weather over the United States early next week. The exact track of Lupit and its associated extratropical feature (or features, as some models are now portraying an extra extratropical cyclone spinning up as Lupit transitions over or just to the east of Japan) is still up in the air, as the models are handling this most complex extratropical transition complex very poorly (i.e. inconsistently) at this point, despite being only 3-4 days into the future. Because of this, even the large-scale pattern over the CONUS during Monday and Tuesday next week isn't even stable. Just looking at the past 24-36 hours worth of model runs, you can see the variations - for example, the European has shifted from a trough over the east for 00z next Tuesday to having a trough over the west and a strong and strengthening ridge in the east!

Needless to say, the next 3 days or so will prove interesting as we watch the evolution of Lupit, as much hinges on its strength and trajectory as it transitions out of the tropics.

[Infdidoll]

Thank you, WindRunner! Very well said. While the Philippines are now in the clear, the rest of us still are not...and I'm not completely discounting a storm that has and still has the potential to change rapidly with altering conditions in an unstable atmosphere. There are so many different variables that make this storm still worth watching until it dissipates completely. Even if this moves out of the realm of the tropics, it's still going to be affecting someone. Thank you for your observations on it...I had no idea there was any potential left to this storm.

I'm not a professional met, not even a good amateur with predictions, yet...but I still enjoy reading everyone's input and I'm learning a lot. I hope some of you will stick around and continue to share your observations on this storm. It does mean the world for those of us soon to be affected by it and those who may be affected in the future.

[oaba09]

Thank you, WindRunner! Very well said. While the Philippines are now in the clear, the rest of us still are not...and I'm not completely discounting a storm that has and still has the potential to change rapidly with altering conditions in an unstable atmosphere. There are so many different variables that make this storm still worth watching until it dissipates completely. Even if this moves out of the realm of the tropics, it's still going to be affecting someone. Thank you for your observations on it...I had no idea there was any potential left to this storm.

I'm not a professional met, not even a good amateur with predictions, yet...but I still enjoy reading everyone's input and I'm learning a lot. I hope some of you will stick around and continue to share your observations on this storm. It does mean the world for those of us soon to be affected by it and those who may be affected in the future.

Exactly...Now that this system is over water and moving again...It will be interesting to see if this TS will re-intensify into a typhoon...

[Infdidoll]

Predicting it to curve back SW? The fun never ends. Guess this means the rain is here to stay for a while.

[oaba09]

Predicting it to curve back SW? The fun never ends. Guess this means the rain is here to stay for a while.

Wow...This is one crazy system to predict...Talk about giving forecasters headaches...

[somethingfunny]

This is the best storm track ever!