Development in the Bahamas Over the Next Couple of Days?

[gatorcane]

GFS likes this area:

[boca]

It looks like a frontal low meaning along the old front.It only has one way to go NE out into the Atlantic.The way the pattern is which is progressive it won't have time to move west.

[lrak]

Whats spinning at 14n 44w, would this be the culprit or is it an ULL?

[boca]

Whats spinning at 14n 44w, would this be the culprit or is it an ULL?

I think thats the old 93L spinning out there. I don't think that the system by 44w will be the culprit,its too far away from the area in the Bahamas.

[WindRunner]

It's certainly a possibility. Convection isn't nearly as organized as the models portray it, though, so it would probably need more than the ~60hours the GFS/NAM give it if it were to successfully develop. NAM does close a sfc isobar off with the system before taking it into south Florida, but that's why it's the NAM no one listens to. 21/12z and 22/00z GFS runs portray a similarly weak system tracking with a trajectory slightly farther north into Florida...and nowhere near as strong as that 18z run that you posted shows - personally, I'd disregard this 18z, as the 18z in general is typically the least reliable of the four daily runs.

Also, as to its tropical nature, the frontal boundary has certainly decayed sufficiently to allow this to be tropical if it were to develop. Cyclone phase diagrams here from your 21/18z run shows the warm-core nature of the system...but also portrays what will be the likely culprit with this system, and that is that it will stay rather shallow in nature without strong convection to organize it throughout the atmosphere.

Since it's moving towards Florida, though, I wouldn't be surprised if TPC put out a low risk area for it by the end of the day tomorrow...assuming things play out as the models portray.

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Recurve]

"...drifts westward..."

A rain event for SFLA no matter what?
Not mentioned in the Keys NWS discussion yet.

Lots of people heading for the Keys beginning tomorrow, Fantasy Fest events starting.

[fci]

"...drifts westward..."

A rain event for SFLA no matter what?
Not mentioned in the Keys NWS discussion yet.

Lots of people heading for the Keys beginning tomorrow, Fantasy Fest events starting.

I don't think it would be much of an "event". More like a bit clouodier and enhance rain probs to 40% blowing in from the Atlantic. No biggee, if any effect at all.
More likely, IMO; if it develops at all, it zips off to the NE and not to the west at this time of the year.
If just an area of cloudiness and showers maybe it drifts to South Florida.
Then gets swept out by the next trough/front.

[boca]

The drift westward has begun,I'm waiting to see what that front does to this area in the Bahamas. My take is that once the front gets closer to Florida the steering flow will push this N or NE out to sea.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[wxman57]

Development chances slim to none.

[wxman57]

I see the NHC now called this Invest 95L. Has about as much chance of developing as 93L. Probability closer to 1% than 30%. Note that the DSHP model doesn't indicate any developmejnt. And that 25 kts initial intensity is actually about 5-10 kts based on numerous obs in the region.

[hurricanetrack]

It looks so bad that storm2k is not even putting it in the active storms forum. Wow, that's bad.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 95L so thread is locked.Go to Active Storms forum to continue the discussions at the 95L thread.