ATL : INVEST 95L

[cycloneye]

This is for the area in the Bahamas.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910231413
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2009, DB, O, 2009102312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952009
AL, 95, 2009102212, , BEST, 0, 220N, 755W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009102218, , BEST, 0, 220N, 755W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009102300, , BEST, 0, 220N, 755W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009102306, , BEST, 0, 220N, 755W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009102312, , BEST, 0, 220N, 755W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 231414
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1414 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20091023 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091023 1200 091024 0000 091024 1200 091025 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 75.5W 22.9N 76.9W 23.9N 78.4W 25.2N 79.6W
BAMD 22.0N 75.5W 22.7N 76.8W 23.5N 78.4W 24.8N 79.8W
BAMM 22.0N 75.5W 22.8N 77.0W 23.8N 78.7W 25.1N 80.0W
LBAR 22.0N 75.5W 22.5N 76.1W 23.5N 76.9W 24.6N 77.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091025 1200 091026 1200 091027 1200 091028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.7N 80.6W 29.9N 81.9W 34.3N 78.8W 36.9N 64.7W
BAMD 26.6N 80.2W 32.1N 79.4W 40.3N 72.1W 46.5N 50.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.7W 30.9N 80.8W 37.6N 76.1W 42.3N 54.6W
LBAR 26.1N 78.1W 28.3N 77.4W 29.5N 75.0W 27.9N 75.0W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 34KTS 17KTS
DSHP 32KTS 31KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 75.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

Ok, I guess I see some rotation near 22N/75W This was a surprise.

[wxman57]

Very slim development potential. Surface chart indicates 5-10kt winds in the area, up to 15 kts well away from 22N/75.5W. Models indicate no development. It should be merging with the approaching cold front tomorrow.

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh, how the standards have dropped...

[wxman57]

Oh, how the standards have dropped...

I'll be running into Bill Read a lot next spring. One of the questions I plan to ask is just what are the criteria for naming an invest. Maybe there isn't any development potential requirement.

[HURAKAN]

Laugh with me!!!

[southerngale]

Oh, how the standards have dropped...

I'll be running into Bill Read a lot next spring. One of the questions I plan to ask is just what are the criteria for naming an invest. Maybe there isn't any development potential requirement.

This is what Christopher Juckins had to say... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106592&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[artist]

let's just hope the chances of this happening remain nil as they seem to be at this time.

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh, how the standards have dropped...

I'll be running into Bill Read a lot next spring. One of the questions I plan to ask is just what are the criteria for naming an invest. Maybe there isn't any development potential requirement.

Well, earlier in the summer, disturbances were labeled invests when they became (or shortly before they became) code orange in a TWO. Now, they are giving these out to any systems Off the top of my head, I think it could be that they are spending their budget now so it does not get reduced more for next year. The fact that the NHC has been playing it conservative this year could also fuel questioning on why this system is an invest.

[wxman57]

This is what Christopher Juckins had to say... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106592&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

I see, he said:
The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

If the forecasters have reason to believe that an area of disturbed weather might develop into an organized tropical system (environmental conditions favorable, forecast models show development, observations show some organization, etc) then an invest is usually declared.

So there isn't necessarily any development probability requirement. They just might want to look more closely at a disturbance out of curiosity (or for whatever reason). So it would be incorrect, in some cases, to make the assumption that when an invest is declared, the chances for TC development are increasing.

[cycloneye]

Below is what Dr Jeff Masters thinks about 95L.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2009

An area of disturbed weather over the central Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure has been designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning, and has the potential to become a tropical depression on Saturday. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large, disorganized circulation in the region, and recent satellite loops show a modest and slowly increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the system was a prohibitively high 30 knots last night, but has fallen dramatically to just 10 knots this morning. This system is expected to move west-northwest and be near Miami on Saturday night, then potentially turn northwards towards South Carolina. It is unlikely that 95L has enough time to grow to more than a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

[cycloneye]

Recon if necessary for Saturday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 23 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA BAHAMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 25.5N 79.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, looks like a nice potential soaker for SFL, but I don't see anything more than that.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS sees a closed low off the SEFL coast in 30 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[wxman57]

GFS keeps 30kt SSW-SW winds over head through 36 hours then down to 20kts near Florida. Beyond then, shear increases substantially as it's drawn northward into the front. Without any storms within 100nm of the center, it's going to be difficult for this to wrap up in 24-36 hour under moderate shear.

[cycloneye]

GFS keeps 30kt SSW-SW winds over head through 36 hours then down to 20kts near Florida. Beyond then, shear increases substantially as it's drawn northward into the front. Without any storms within 100nm of the center, it's going to be difficult for this to wrap up in 24-36 hour under moderate shear.

Can this be subtropical as NHC said at TWO and may survive the shear because of that?

[artist]

This is what Christopher Juckins had to say... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106592&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

I see, he said:
The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

If the forecasters have reason to believe that an area of disturbed weather might develop into an organized tropical system (environmental conditions favorable, forecast models show development, observations show some organization, etc) then an invest is usually declared.

So there isn't necessarily any development probability requirement. They just might want to look more closely at a disturbance out of curiosity (or for whatever reason). So it would be incorrect, in some cases, to make the assumption that when an invest is declared, the chances for TC development are increasing.

I wouldn't call it curiosity wxman. It seems according to what they told southerngale it is to get data sets, etc.

[wxman57]

GFS keeps 30kt SSW-SW winds over head through 36 hours then down to 20kts near Florida. Beyond then, shear increases substantially as it's drawn northward into the front. Without any storms within 100nm of the center, it's going to be difficult for this to wrap up in 24-36 hour under moderate shear.

Can this be subtropical as NHC said at TWO and may survive the shear because of that?

It wouldn't be able to survive once the front reaches it late tomorrow. With the front moving off the SE U.S. coast tomorrow, upper winds increase rapidly to between 40-80 kts offshore the Carolinas on Sunday. Not conducive to any kind of low development.