WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:05 am

This is the system east of the Mariana islands that may develop.

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
221910Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS.
A WESTERLY WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LLCC STILL ATTEMPTING TO
ORGANIZE AND THE MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

#2 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:12 am

It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:
Contact metenthusiast

Re:

#3 Postby metenthusiast » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:15 am

oaba09 wrote:It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?


According to analyses, tropical cyclone development probability is still poor. Here is the link to an IR sat loop of NWPAC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/loop-avn.html

I guess that's the disturbance, the clump of clouds on the lower right corner..
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#4 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:30 am

metenthusiast wrote:
oaba09 wrote:It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?


According to analyses, tropical cyclone development probability is still poor. Here is the link to an IR sat loop of NWPAC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/loop-avn.html

I guess that's the disturbance, the clump of clouds on the lower right corner..


That's definitely a build up but it still looks too disorganized to form anything.....Let's wait and see...This might be another threat to our country in the coming weeks...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#5 Postby drdavisjr » Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:54 am

I bet by tomorrow we'll be seeing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on this disturbance. It seems to be rapidly organizing...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:44 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#7 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#8 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.


It seems like it's looking to get organized
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#9 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:18 am

oaba09 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.


It seems like it's looking to get organized


Yeah. At first I would have said "no" to this one but the western Pacific has been red hot and there's really no adverse conditions for this to develop. Very much worth watching.
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#10 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:01 am

Riding just a little bit behind the southwestern edge of a building STR and getting organized rapidly. This could be an impressive cyclone...

Image
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

#11 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:10 am

The WPAC has been very busy....
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#12 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:15 am

oaba09 wrote:The WPAC has been very busy....


Hi oaba09,
More to watch. And even though this one has a lot of potential, climatologically speaking it should miss to your northeast... Let's hope so. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:
Contact oaba09

Re: Re:

#13 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:22 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:The WPAC has been very busy....


Hi oaba09,
More to watch. And even though this one has a lot of potential, climatologically speaking it should miss to your northeast... Let's hope so. :wink:


That's what we're hoping too :D We'll be watching this thing very closely..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

#14 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:11 am

Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?
0 likes   
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#15 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:42 am

drdavisjr wrote:Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?


I know you hate to hear this, but it is WAY too early to tell :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

Re: Re:

#16 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:45 am

ozonepete wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?


I know you hate to hear this, but it is WAY too early to tell :)


Yeah, I know :D Thanks!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#17 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:53 am

Where is this located I can't tell
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:
Contact drdavisjr

Re:

#18 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:57 am

StormingB81 wrote:Where is this located I can't tell


Southeast of the Mariana Islands - in the vicinity of Pohnpei Island
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#19 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 4:55 am

k Thanks. So I guess we may have another storm to closely keep an eye on. Its raining here on Okinawa right now. We are feeling the outter bands. They are saying we should have near 50 mph winds tonight but thats if it turns. We shall see. I hope the power stays on...lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:
Contact Crostorm

Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#20 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 24, 2009 5:08 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests