WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASED CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI
INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1 MB. A WESTERLY WIND BURST
LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO
MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[ricmood]

from 6.2N to 9.5N in just 24 hours. Does it mean it's gaining latitude fast?

[cycloneye]

from 6.2N to 9.5N in just 24 hours. Does it mean it's gaining latitude fast?

I think the initial position of 6.2N was not right.Lets see if the next positions go more north or stay around the same latitud.

[ricmood]

Wow! It's non-stop in WPAC...

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-250700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 10N160E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING
AND MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE
DATA...ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH.

WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS.
SINCE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER ARE THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY IN MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK
DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS
PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MILLER

[oaba09]

[metenthusiast]

I think the one on the lower part is a model for invest 95W. It seems to be heading straight for Southern Luzon / Visayas area...

(Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

[oaba09]

I think the one on the lower part is a model for invest 95W. It seems to be heading straight for Southern Luzon / Visayas area...

(Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

Interesting and quite a weird looking track if you ask me...

[metenthusiast]

Interesting and quite a weird looking track if you ask me...

Yeah. I'm just wondering, what are the chances of this invest following this model and Lupit turning back for the Philippines and the two interreacting? I think the dates where they would be closest to the Philippine Archipelago aren't that far away from each other.

Just a thought...

[WindRunner]

Many of the global models show this developing - yesterday's ECMWF runs showed it more than any of the GFS runs have, but regardless, they all show it heading towards central/northern Luzon. That is still a long way out, though, and I wouldn't even start to worry about it until it actually forms. The timing of the system's approach would bring it into the vicinity of the Philippines by this time next week at the earliest, and most likely if it develops it would move even slower than that. On a good note, chances are if it develops more, the greater the chance is that it would curve off to the north farther/sooner. Hopefully it will be only another near miss for Luzon at worst.

[oaba09]

Many of the global models show this developing - yesterday's ECMWF runs showed it more than any of the GFS runs have, but regardless, they all show it heading towards central/northern Luzon. That is still a long way out, though, and I wouldn't even start to worry about it until it actually forms. The timing of the system's approach would bring it into the vicinity of the Philippines by this time next week at the earliest, and most likely if it develops it would move even slower than that. On a good note, chances are if it develops more, the greater the chance is that it would curve off to the north farther/sooner. Hopefully it will be only another near miss for Luzon at worst.

Thanks for the detailed explanation...It's still pretty far and it hasn't even developed yet...The best thing we can do for now is observe this system further...

[JTE50]

I'm head back to Guam tomorrow and will let you know how it is when it goes by!

[ozonepete]

I'm head back to Guam tomorrow and will let you know how it is when it goes by!

Sweet! Still obviously too early to tell, but you could have a pretty significant storm coming in.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

From RSMC Tokyo -

WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 136E 35N 142E 34N 157E 30N 155E 31N 140E 29N 133E 31N
132E 33N 136E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 26N 122E 22N 120E 23N 117E 26N 120E 26N 122E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 50N 128E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 145E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 44N 167E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 30N 170E EAST 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 159E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 43N 146E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 25N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 131E TO 28N 136E 31N 141E 31N 149E 29N 161E
30N 170E 29N 175E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0920 LUPIT (0920) 980 HPA AT 23.4N 126.6E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[ozonepete]

This looks mostly like an inverted trough right now rather than a tropical wave because of its orientation, but from the satellite loops you can see that low pressure has formed or is almost formed at the forward edge of it (JMA says yes). I suspect the westerly wind burst that got it spinning in the first place at the front edge is still working through it at the back edge and once it passes the low will consolidate. But until that concentration of convection at the back edge dissipates there's too much energy dispersion to see significant development. (IMHO)

Having said that, this could be a rapid intensifier pretty soon.

[dowdavek]

Definitely watching this on Guam Could this or either the following storm showing up on GFS and NOGAPS be the big one?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[WindRunner]

This looks mostly like an inverted trough right now rather than a tropical wave because of its orientation, but from the satellite loops you can see that low pressure has formed or is almost formed at the forward edge of it (JMA says yes).

Being that this is the western Pacific, nothing here is truly considered a tropical wave, but there are certainly still the occasional impulses of energy entering the area along the ITCZ. More commonly, every blames development on the monsoon trough...which basically means that anytime one random thunderstorm goes a bit crazier than the rest of the semi-permanent blob, it's possible that it'll turn into a monsoonal depression/gyre and potentially move out of the trough and become a distinct TC. In the end, it's a similar process, but with less distinct forcing for the original tropical cyclogenesis.

[dexterlabio]

I became conscious about this disturbance and so I came around a weather site named typhoon2000.ph and there was a forecast according to ECMWF. It says:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to move Westward in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.3N lon 154.0E...or about 1,025 km ESE of Guam...2,070 km East of P.A.R...3,085 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Oh, I forgot. I am new in this site. Haha It's nice to be here.