WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[StormingB81]

Plus with those graphs I have noticed that the storm never follows the first path

[dexterlabio]

I should continue monitoring this system on Tuesday. It' way too early to speak about this.

[ozonepete]

I should continue monitoring this system on Tuesday. It' way too early to speak about this.

There you go! This sytem is way far away to worry about now. If you enjoy following them, it's very interesting, but there's no need for a public interest yet.

[oaba09]

I should continue monitoring this system on Tuesday. It' way too early to speak about this.

There you go! This sytem is way far away to worry about now. If you enjoy following them, it's very interesting, but there's no need for a public interest yet.

Exactly...Nothing to worry about yet...However, I am interested w/ the development of this system...

[dexterlabio]

Me, too. I am interested with its formation, especially that it is too far, and I wouldn't be surprise to see another supertyphoon roaming around the Pacific ocean soon.

Even though I am fascinated by this type of weather phenomenon, I am still thinking about others who might be affected. For me, it's nice to see a well-defined eye of an intense typhoon, but it is NOT good if it crosses an area and causes destruction.

[drdavisjr]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

[oaba09]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

I believe after milenyo left(xangsane) another typhoon came....But yes, this has been a very busy period............I guess ketsana really opened our eyes......

[Typhoon Hunter]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

Well in 2006 Philippines was hit by:
Chanchu as a TS
Xangsane as a very powerful typhoon killing hundreds
Cimaron as a very powerful typhoon
Chebi as a very powerful typhoon
and Durian as a monster typhoon which killed over a thousand

Let's hope this disturbance and any other's which form for the rest of this year keep clear of the Philippines.

[ozonepete]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

Well in 2006 Philippines was hit by:
Chanchu as a TS
Xangsane as a very powerful typhoon killing hundreds
Cimaron as a very powerful typhoon
Chebi as a very powerful typhoon
and Durian as a monster typhoon which killed over a thousand

Let's hope this disturbance and any other's which form for the rest of this year keep clear of the Philippines.

2006 was the first year I started following typhoons and it was amazing, especially Xangsane and Cimaron.
Let's hope it's over, but this system out east of the Mariana's is not a good sign...

[drdavisjr]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

Well in 2006 Philippines was hit by:
Chanchu as a TS
Xangsane as a very powerful typhoon killing hundreds
Cimaron as a very powerful typhoon
Chebi as a very powerful typhoon
and Durian as a monster typhoon which killed over a thousand

Let's hope this disturbance and any other's which form for the rest of this year keep clear of the Philippines.

Thanks! I moved here in May of 2006. I remember Xangsane well, but I guess I was so busy adapting to this new culture that the rest didn't get my attention.

Thanks to Ketsana, they have my attention now.

[dexterlabio]

2006 is one intense typhoon season. Cimarron, Chebi and Durian hit Luzon within October-November, raising Public Storm Warning Signal #4 in some provinces, 3 times in a row. Of course, there is Xangxane, being the third typhoon in my entire life which wreak havoc in my place (Manila), the first was Rosing (1994) and Seniang (2001).

2009 season surprised me a lot, I thought at first that it will just be an OK season for cyclones to develop, but hey, September and October are the real critical months for typhoon season. Yet, it was already 3 years ago since 2006 when a real supertyphoon made landfall and raise PSWS4 in some provinces, I dunno (and don't wish) if one will come before the year ends.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah, I just wanna know when the northeast monsoon (amihan) will start to blow again. Amihan completes my Christmas season, the one bringing chills in the -ber months However, I have this feeling or belief that the northeast monsoon has a role of driving the cyclones westwards or west-southwestwards. I will appreciate it if someone will correct me about this. Haha.

[KWT]

Very interesting system, models certainly are keen to taking this close to Luzon and keeping a broad westerly track. I suspect it'll end up a bit further north then predicted but we shall see.

Also good to see the WPAC getting quite a lot of attention for once!

[drdavisjr]

GFS Forecasts of 850mb Streamlines and Isotachs
Issued: See Image Titles for Initial and Valid Times
Forecasts are issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (model documentation) and are presented as a set of nine panels: the analysis (0 hour forecast), 12 hour forecasts out to 72 hours, followed by 24 hour forecasts out to 120 hours.



Analysis


12 hr


24 hr


36 hr


48 hr


60 hr


72hr


96 hr


120 hr


Note: this looks very much like ECMWF...

[oaba09]

GFS Forecasts of 850mb Streamlines and Isotachs
Issued: See Image Titles for Initial and Valid Times
Forecasts are issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (model documentation) and are presented as a set of nine panels: the analysis (0 hour forecast), 12 hour forecasts out to 72 hours, followed by 24 hour forecasts out to 120 hours.



Analysis


12 hr


24 hr


36 hr


48 hr


60 hr


72hr


96 hr


120 hr


Note: this looks very much like ECMWF...

Looks bad for us in the NCR

[drdavisjr]

Here is the link if anyone is interested.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/trop.850.html

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me, or the convection of 95W is somewhat decreasing. I am currently viewing JMA's satellite animation in the Pacific and it seems to be like that.

[drdavisjr]

Looks bad for us in the NCR

Yes, but not to worry yet.

I have alot of work this week No time for storm tracking, unless things start looking really bad and really close.

[drdavisjr]

Is it just me, or the convection of 95W is somewhat decreasing. I am currently viewing JMA's satellite animation in the Pacific and it seems to be like that.

The current models indicate that 95W will only be a tropical depression or storm; at least that is how it is looking right now. But this is definitely an area of interest for us in NCR.

[oaba09]