WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[Infdidoll]

Wow! I stepped outside not wearing makeup, today, and singlehandedly killed a tropical storm with my ugliness. Rock on.

Now off to watch 95W...

[ozonepete]

Not much left

Yeah, it's basically over. Thanks for keeping us up to date to the end.

[breeze]

Bye-bye, Lupit!

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 26.8N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 34.2N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 39.7N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 132.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, LUPIT IS SHOWING THE SIGNS OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PGTW HAS STARTED TO USE THE
EXTRATROPICAL FIX METHOD, YIELDING A VALUE OF 45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS A COMPILATION OF THE PGTW AND RJTD POSITION FIXES AS
WELL AS THE JAPAN RADAR FIX. LUPIT HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES,
AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO,
JAPAN, BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Gone

[oaba09]

Gone

That looks ugly...

[metenthusiast]

Gone

That looks ugly...

Hasta la vista, baby...

[cycloneye]

Final Warning by JTWC

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 37.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 134.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS LUPIT HAS STARTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED ENTIRELY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOW EXPOSED,
THOUGH A 252118Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS THAT IT IS ALSO STILL WELL-
DEVELOPED. THE REMNANTS OF TS LUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AS THE SYSTEM GATHERS JET SUPPORT AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Recurve to the SW = FAILED!

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 056
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 27.5N 133.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 35.8N 143.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE NE 35KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 280000UTC 46.0N 156.5E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


Forecast to become a powerful non-tropical system

[dexterlabio]

time to focus on 23W/Pre-Mirinae/Pre-Santi

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 962
WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 31.3N 139.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 36KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 44.2N 151.2E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looks extratropical