WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=NRL just put TD 23W so JTWC will issue its first warning shortly.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.9N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.5N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.5N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 150.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 252051Z OCT 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 252100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

I cant believe that another monster is forecast to slam into the Philliphines.Can that country take more devastation that has already endured?

[breeze]

My jaw dropped when I saw that track - it is almost unbelievable!

[cycloneye]

The next name on the list that will be used for this system will be Mirinae.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately for the Philippines, it's that time of the year.

[oaba09]

Unfortunately for the Philippines, it's that time of the year.

What can I say.....We're very lucky

[JTE50]

I've notified all the media I met for Lupit in the Philippines. I'm sure they are just waking up from many days on the road covering Lupit (Milar). This must seem like a bad dream for them. JTWC forecasts 115mph in 5 days but it could spin up well past that especially if it stays low. Question is: will it go straight on in like the JTWC 5 day track shows and will it hit at peak strengh. Looks like we have to sweat out another one. The WPac is getting all the extra action from the Atlantic it seems.

[cycloneye]

I've notified all the media I met for Lupit in the Philippines. I'm sure they are just waking up from many days on the road covering Lupit (Milar). This must seem like a bad dream for them. JTWC forecasts 115mph in 5 days but it could spin up well past that especially if it stays low. Question is: will it go straight on in like the JTWC 5 day track shows and will it hit at peak strengh. Looks like we have to sweat out another one. The WPac is getting all the extra action from the Atlantic it seems.

Are you planning to chase again at the Philliphines?

[oaba09]

If this forecast holds...It looks like we in metro manila are in trouble....Trust me, the fact that this might affect metro manila will make this a BIG news..

[dowdavek]

Hmm will it stay a tropical storm before effecting us on Guam or is there the possibility of stregthening due to warm waters and low wind shear? Time to go clean the yard and get the typhoon kits ready.

[HURAKAN]

The JTWC's track seems to be a carbon copy of this model track

[vbhoutex]

I sure don't like the forecast I am seeing for this one!!! Pray for poofing!!!

[ozonepete]

My jaw dropped when I saw that track - it is almost unbelievable!

Mine too. My first impression was for a recurve, but I need to look at the models, especially the global model output, and see what they're saying about the STR this system is being steered by.

BTW, a straight line track like that when there is an advancing mid-latitiude trough approaching is extremely suspect, so I would be suspicious until we see more data. Got to go to bed now. See you all tomorrow.

[JTE50]

I've notified all the media I met for Lupit in the Philippines. I'm sure they are just waking up from many days on the road covering Lupit (Milar). This must seem like a bad dream for them. JTWC forecasts 115mph in 5 days but it could spin up well past that especially if it stays low. Question is: will it go straight on in like the JTWC 5 day track shows and will it hit at peak strengh. Looks like we have to sweat out another one. The WPac is getting all the extra action from the Atlantic it seems.

Are you planning to chase again at the Philliphines?

If I get over this cold I picked up there in time.

[StormingB81]

I am Hoping this storm stays to the north. If it stays on the track now it should be the north oh PI if not recurved (Let's all hope for the sake of PI)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

Last year Cuba, Haiti and US were hit one storm after another, this year it seems it's the Philippines. Remember that Lupit was forecasted to hit your country but at the end the worst scenario didn't verified, let's pray that this time it doesn't verify either. Stay tuned and watch very carefully the progress of this system.

[cycloneye]

First Advisory for Marianas,Tropical Storm Watch for Guam,Rota,Tinian and Saipan

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 260340
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232009
100 PM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W FORMS EAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN.

TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHILE PASSING JUST NORTH OF GUAM ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...12.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
150.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 PM TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON/MIDDLEBROOKE

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

[StormingB81]

I've noticed that the track always changes alot from the first post to like the 4th post. I want to see Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday then see the track. See what a difference it is. Hopefully ALOT

[Infdidoll]

Wow...After days of speculation, we've got something to talk about now. Time to buy some chips and salsa, beer, and watch this thing blossom. Maybe that sounds a little casual, but with all the activity going on here the past 3 months, typhoon-watching is starting to become the weekly thing for me. I live a sad existence.

In all seriousness, however...didn't they project Lupit to directly hit the Philippines and it snaked all over and eventually came up our way as a tropical storm? The best we can hope for is that it will slow down enough for climatic conditions to change, shift it all over the place, and ultimately weaken it into non-existence like what just happened with Lupit. What a climactic climatic season!